Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands About this report This report consists of insight and perspectives from Ernst & Young’s Calgary Oil & Gas team, which has extensive experience helping oil and gas companies in Western Canada achieve their potential. The research is drawn from the team’s own conversations and experience advising international, national and local oil companies. All monetary figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified. Key findings In this report, our oil and gas team has uncovered a number of ways companies can turn today’s challenges and opportunities into results. • One of the top trends we’re seeing today is the rising number of joint ventures and partnerships in the industry, which is helpful for oilsands as it allows for sharing of resources, costs and skills. • The industry is investing more in technology, and is collaborating on its use and research. • With the rise of globalization in the economy, it’s becoming more and more important for Canada’s oil and gas market to break into new markets around the world rather than solely relying on the US for trade. • With the rise of concern from stakeholders and the community, and with government regulations, companies are focusing more on ways to curb their greenhouse gas emissions. • Due to the perceived negative environmental effects of oil and gas production, companies are working on their own public relations management. It is important for the government to support these efforts by coming up with a federal energy strategy. • In the wake of the global recession and crude price volatility, companies are taking a fresh look at their strategies and improving their internal business operations. 2 Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands Oilsands geography Oilsands, also known as tarsands, caustic soda are added to the sands to are a mix of bitumen, sand and separate the oil. water. They are considered a type of The oilsands in Western Canada’s unconventional petroleum deposit, Sedimentary Basin are located in three since the process to extract oil from major deposits in northern Alberta: the the sands is different from that used to Athabasca-Wabiskaw oilsands deposits extract the free-flowing hydrocarbon of northeastern Alberta, with the bulk mixtures of crude oil traditionally of oilsands companies located in the produced from oil wells. Oil is extracted town of Fort McMurray; the Cold Lake from oilsands through in-situ methods deposits in the northeastern part of such as steam-assisted gravity the province; and the Peace River drainage (SAGD) during which low- deposits of northwestern Alberta. pressure steam is continuously injected Together, these three regions cover into horizontal wells to heat the oil and 225,308 square kilometres and hold reduce its viscosity. proven reserves of 1.75 trillion barrels Another more expensive form of of bitumen. extracting oil from the sands is The area contains at least 85% surface mining, using large trucks of the world’s reserves of natural and excavators. Surface mining is bitumen, but they are the only performed when the bitumen is deposits concentrated enough to covered by little overburden, which be economically recoverable for consists of water-laden peat bog conversion to synthetic crude oil over top of clay and barren sand. The at current prices. In fact, Canada’s oilsands are typically 40 to 60 metres oilsands reserves are ranked third deep, sitting on top of flat limestone in the world for proven oil reserves rock. After excavation, hot water and behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Alberta oilsands properties Athabasca- Wabiskaw Deposit Fort McMurray Peace Peace River River Athabasca- Deposit Wabiskaw Cold Lake Deposit Deposit In-situ projects Mining projects Cold Lake Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands 3 The top 10 emerging opportunities As Canada’s economy recovers from the global economic recession, its oil and gas industry is gaining strength at a fast pace — entering a boom cycle. During the recession, exploration, development and many capital projects were put on hold, and now the industry is facing a growing global demand for resources — a demand that oil and gas companies are scrambling to take advantage of. This increasing demand has been a driving force in Canada’s recovery, and we believe it will remain so well into the future. Demand for Canada’s oil resources The oilsands sector is evolving quickly. is particularly evident in Alberta’s Risk continues to dominate the unconventional oil region, which plays business agenda, but competition in an important role in the country’s oil a global marketplace is becoming a and gas sector. The oilsands hold great dominant feature. Market volatility, resource potential, and there are a pricing pressure, variations in growing number of projects on the rise market performance and demanding that consist heavily of an oil-focused stakeholders have all contributed to an mix. The region has generated interest economy that encourages competitive from foreign (notably Asian) investors drive. And with that drive comes and partners as these countries look opportunity. After taking into account to secure their oil supplies to fuel the many lessons learned from the rapidly expanding populations. To recession, and the boom period from many, Canada offers a stable business 2005 to 2008, oilsands companies are environment that weathered the better equipped to succeed today than economic storm well, political stability, ever before. strong and transparent regulations, The following are the top 10 and the development of leading-edge opportunities we see emerging in technology and expertise in the the industry. oilsands. 4 Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands Global demand is growing The demand for oil around the world remains crucial to the viability of oilsands as a resource. The International Energy Agency forecasts continued growth and demand for fossil fuels of 36% between 2008 and 2035, with 36% of the increase coming from China. The US is also an important customer of Canadian oilsands production, accounting for approximately 22% of the world’s oil and gas consumption. The agency also predicts that coal, oil and natural gas will remain prominent sources of energy into 2035, and that Canadian oilsands and 1 Venezuela heavy oil will dominate production mix in the future globally. The oilsands are economically important to Canada Canada’s oilsands play a significant contributing role in the oil and gas industry, and in giving Canada a global competitive edge. Canada’s current oilsands production is disproportionate relative to its large reserves base owing to high capital costs, restrictive regulatory requirements and the long lead times needed 2 to bring oilsands production online. Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands 5 Here are some key numbers from Another measure of government share or revenue from the development of the oil the government of Alberta that sands is to measure the direct and indirect revenues. This involves measuring the highlight how the oil and gas industry direct royalty and taxes paid, as well as the taxes paid by those supplying goods contributes to the Canadian economy. and services to the oilsands projects and paid by their employees. A Canadian • The economic impact to Canada Energy Research Institute (CERI) study, titled The Economic Impact of Alberta’s Oil generated from the oil and gas Sands, October 2005, quantified the measure of government revenue over the 20 sector is $1.7 trillion per year year period from 2000 to 2020 and found Canada’s governments in aggregated (GDP); 90% of this comes collected $123 billion, which was divided up as follows: from Alberta. • Reserves base — Canada has a Government revenue from oilsands 2000–2020 huge resource base of oilsands reserves comparable on a world 120 scale to countries like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. 100 $123 billion by jurisdiction 80 14% – Municipalities 60 $ in billions 9% – Provinces other than Alberta 40 36% – Alberta government 20 41% – Federal government 0 Source: CERI — Economic Impacts of Alberta’s Oilsands, Oct. 2005 World oil reserves Accessible oil reserves Canada’s 52% State owned oilsands or controlled 78% Accessible Other accessible 48% 300 reserves 260 250 211 200 175 Includes 170 billion barrels of oilsands reserves 150 137 115 102 Billion barrels Billion 100 92 60 46 50 37 30 25 20 19 0 Iran Iraq Libya Qatar China Canada Kuwait Russia Nigeria Venezuela Abu Dhabi Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia United States Source: Oil & Gas Journal, December 2010 6 Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands Oilsands are playing a more prominent role in the oil production mix Supported by several oilsands assets in either operations or construction, and future growth plans both in-situ (drillable) and mining related, production is expected to grow through 2025, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). Production growth mainly fuelled by oilsands is expected to strengthen the 3 energy relationship between the US and Canada. In fact, CAPP expects oilsands production to grow from 1.3 million barrels/day in 2009 to 2.2 million barrels/ day by 2015 and 3.5 million barrels/day in 2025. Canadian oilsands and conventional oil production forecast (2011–25) 5 Actual Forecast 4 Atlantic Canada 3 In-situ 2 Million barrels/day Mining 1 Conventional heavy Pentanes/condensate Conventional light 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Exploring the top 10 opportunities and risks in Canada’s oilsands 7 Canada is an attractive place to do business Looking at the major global projects against the economics and political risk in Canada indicates SAGD oilsands and mining oilsands projects compare well on a global scale.