CBRNE Terrorism Newsletter 2 «Η διεθνής τρομοκρατία θα τελειώσει μόνον όταν αποκτήσουμε το θάρρος να καθίσουμε και να μιλήσουμε με τον μουσουλμανικό κόσμο, αντί να προκαλούμε νέες κρίσεις ή να αρχίζουμε νέους πολέμους» Sir Βασίλειος Μαρκεζίνης* Καθηγητής Δικαίου (UK) * Ο Sir Βασίλειος Μαρκεζίνης διετέλεσε Καθηγητής στο Κέημπριτζ, την Οξφόρδη και το Λονδίνο, κατείχε δε, επίσης έδρα στο Λάηντεν (Ολλανδία) και στο Ώστιν του Τέξας (ΗΠΑ). Επιπλέον, έχει διδάξει σε είκοσι πέντε Πανεπιστήμια ανά τον κόσμο, έχει συγγράψει τριάντα τρία βιβλία και πάνω από εκατόν τριάντα νομικά άρθρα, τα οποία έχουν δημοσιευθεί σε νομικά περιοδικά σε ολόκληρο τον κόσμο. Τα έργα του έχουν μεταφρασθεί στα γερμανικά, γαλλικά, ιταλικά, πορτογαλικά και κινεζικά. Είναι Μέλος της Βρετανικής Ακαδημίας, Αντεπιστέλλον Μέλος της Γαλλικής Ακαδημίας και της Ακαδημίας Αθηνών, Ξένος Εταίρος της Βελγικής, της Ολλανδικής και της Ιταλικής (Academia dei Lincei) Ακαδημίας, όπως επίσης και του Αμερικανικού Ινστιτούτου Δικαίου. Από το 1997 φέρει τον τίτλο του Επίτιμου Συμβούλου της Βασίλισσας της Αγγλίας (Queen's Counsel), ενώ από το 2000 είναι Ειδικός Επιστημονικός Σύμβουλος του Πρώτου Προέδρου του Γαλλικού Ακυρωτικού (Cour de Cassation). Το 2005 έλαβε τον τίτλο του Ιππότη από τη Βασίλισσα Ελισάβετ ΙΙ για τις εξαίρετες υπηρεσίες που έχει προσφέρει στις διεθνείς νομικές σχέσεις. Επιπλέον, έχει λάβει εξαιρετικά υψηλές τιμές από τους Προέδρους Μιτεράν και Σιράκ (της Γαλλίας), Σκάλφαρο και Τσιάμπι (της Ιταλίας) και φον Βάιτσκερ και Χέρτσοκ (της Γερμανίας). Τέλος, από το 2007 είναι Μέλος του Διοικητικού Συμβουλίου του Κοινωφελούς Ιδρύματος «Αλέξανδρος Σ. Ωνάσης». Μ ΒΡΕΤΑΝΙΑ Εκλογή πρώτου μουσουλμάνου υπουργού Ο μουσουλμάνος Shahid Malik εξελέγη πρόσφατα Υπουργός Δικαιοσύνης στη Μ Βρετανία – προφανώς στα πλαίσια της ειρηνικής συνεχιζόμενης μουσουλμανοποίη- σης της Ευρώπης την οποία ακόμη οι περισσότεροι από εμάς δεν έχουμε συνειδητοποιήσει. UK: First Muslim minister of state Britain's first Muslim minister, Shahid Malik, has been promoted to the department of justice as part of Gordon Brown's cabinet reshuffle. The Dewsbury MP, who is currently a minister for international development, said he hoped to make Britain "a more just society" in his new role as a minister in the department for justice. "While I have truly loved my international role working to deliver justice for the poorest around the world, I'm now relishing the opportunity to make Britain an even fairer and more just society for all its citizens," he said. As an MP, Malik gained experience of violent youth crime in Britain when a teenager was murdered by a gang of young people in his constituency in May this year. After the killing, the MP, who lives just a few minutes walk from the scene of the attack, called for "a change in society", warning that too many young people were adopting a culture where violence was an accepted part of life. Ο ΔΙΑΒΟΛΟΣ ΠΟΥ ΓΝΩΡΙΖΟΥΜΕ Άλλο ένα ενδιαφέρον βιβλίο και από πλευράς περιεχομένου και από πλευράς ιστορικού του συγγραφέως που αναφέρεται στα γεγονότα που διαδραματίζονται στην Εγγύς και τη Μέση Ανατολή με επικέντρωση στο Ιράν. Ο συγγραφέας κάνει λόγο για επικείμενη επικράτηση των σιιτών, για την ήττα του Ισραήλ από τη Hizbullah το www.rieas.gr CBRNE Terrorism Newsletter 3 καλοκαίρι του 2006, για την κατασκευή της σιιτικής βόμβας ως αντίπαλο δέος της σουνιτικής βόμβας του Πακιστάν, για την παρασκηνιακή ομάδα που κυβερνάει το Ιράν και για τις ενδεχόμενες λύσεις στη διαμάχη του Ιράν με τη διεθνή κοινότητα. BOOK REVIEW: Robert Baer's 'The Devil We Know' Reveals Some Inconvenient Truths About Iran and the Conflict Between Shia and Sunni Islam The conventional wisdom in the Middle East is that Iran is a rogue state run by religious fanatics who want to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and drive the U.S. and other Western powers out of the region. The reality, according to Robert Baer in his new book "The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower" (Crown Publishers, 288 pages, $25.95) is much more complicated and subtle -- and dangerous. He says we must deal with reality -- with "The Devil We Know" -- or find our access to Persian Gulf oil eliminated. The Shia regime in Iran is halfway to winning its undeclared 30-year war with the U.S. which began with the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 by using proxies such as Hezbollah and the Kurds, forging alliances with Russia and China and exploiting the Muslim divide of Shia and Sunni factions, Baer says. He's a former CIA operative whose character was played by George Clooney in the movie "Syriana," based on Baer's book "See No Evil." He has extensive contacts throughout the Middle East, including Israel, which he says is pursuing a realistic approach to Iran since its defeat by Hezbollah in the 34-day 2006 war in Lebanon. Baer quotes -- on Page 109 -- an assessment from the Winograd Commission Report, the official Israeli investigation into the 2006 war: "A semi-military organization of a few thousand men resisted for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technological advantages." Baer -- now a free-lance journalist and author of four books who contributes to Time.com, Vanity Fair, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal, among other publications -- says there is still time to counteract the Russia-China axis and forge relations with what is in effect a superpower. In their own peculiar way, the majority of Iranians like Americans and America, something I noticed while living in Los Angeles and interacting with the large Iranian exile community there. What about the looney-toon president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Baer argues that he's a figurehead, that the country is run by a secretive, calculating, rational shadow government that has succeeded in controlling the Shia areas of Iraq and has gained credence with the Palestinians, Jordanians and many in Egypt and the Gulf States because it has done what Sunni Muslims have never done -- defeat the mighty Israelis. Iran's interest in its neighbor Iraq is "considerably stronger and more enduring than America's," Baer says on Page 93. "...its will is stronger, and it never will overcome the temptation to meddle, to undermine us in Iraq. Iran also cannot afford to allow Shia Islam's historical center of learning in Iraq, Najaf, to return to being a moderate rival to the Iranian learning center, Qum. Iran will not abandon its quest for control over Shia www.rieas.gr CBRNE Terrorism Newsletter 4 Islam, nor allow a quietest form of Shia Islam to challenge the legitimacy of Iran's mullahs." Iran, Baer says, thinks in terms of the long haul: "Iran is calculating that the United States will get tired of Iraq, pull out, and let fall the first domino in a Persian reconquest of the Gulf." (Page 104). "The Iranians understand perfectly that the only reason we care about that miserable body of water called the Persian Gulf is that 55 percent of the world's reserves lie beneath its shores and 17 million barrels of crude oil pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz." Iran is little interested in becoming a nuclear power, for now, Baer argues in a startling turnabout of conventional wisdom: "Right now, at least, the Iranians don't need a nuclear bomb [Page 110]. If a war is to be fought in the Gulf, Iraq, or Lebanon, Iran will almost certainly fall back on its asymmetrical tactics and weapons. There are also innumerable drawbacks to rushing the development of a nuclear weapon in today's global atmosphere --and few benefits." Baer's says one reason the U.S. is obsessed with Iran's supposed nuclear ambitions is that "we're once again fighting the last war rather than this one [Page 110]. We remember it was Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons that stopped Iran from taking Basra. We're worried that the Syrians intend to put chemical warheads on their Scud missiles and fire them at Tel Aviv. We're blinded by the worst-case scenario, which happens not to be Tehran's preferred scenario." Not that Baer rules out Tehran's developing nuclear weapons; he argues that Iran wants to counter Pakistan's "Sunni Bomb" with its own "Shia Bomb." Too, Iran "wanted to be taken seriously as a major power, in the same way it wanted to control Hormuz and the world's oil [Page 111]." Among Iran's proxies are the Kurds, who inhabit a strategic region encompassing major parts of Turkey, Iraq and Iran, Baer says. It's only a matter of time, he says, before the artificial state of Iraq -- developed out of the 1916 Sykes-Picot secret pact by the British and French in their dividing up of the Middle East into spheres of influence -- is split up into Kurdish, Sunni and Shia elements. Iraq's civil war has just started, Baer says: The Shia intend to fight until their former masters, the Sunni, are expelled from Baghdad and central Iraq. The Shia already control Basra and southern Iraq. Summing up, Baer says the longer we ignore Iran, the more dangerous this sophisticated country with a history dating back thousands of years will succeed in ousting the U.S. from this volatile region. One might argue it's too bad we don't have Baer as Secretary of State! But that would make too much sense, and we're not especially noted for common sense in the Middle East. If you're looking for a clear-headed, rational look at the Middle East, read "The Devil We Know." It turns conventional "wisdom" on its head. Of the three options Baer outlines for dealing with Iran -- Staying in Iraq forever; provoking a "Mad Max" Shia-Sunni civil war; or sit down at the negotiating table with Iran, "treat it like the power it has become, and see what it has to offer" the latter is the only sensible course of action, he says.