European Elections in the UK Media Briefing 7th May 2014 UKIP and the 2014 European Parliament elections Dr Philip Lynch ([email protected]) & Dr Richard Whitaker ([email protected]) University of Leicester UKIP and the 2014 European Elections Philip Lynch ( [email protected], @drphiliplynch ) and Richard Whitaker ( [email protected], @rickwhitaker ) Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester UKIP go into the 2014 European elections in a far stronger position than they did five years earlier. The crucial differences are first, that UKIP have not experienced the decline in support in general election polling that they normally do after a European election. On the contrary, they are now consistently placed in third position in polls of general election vote intentions. Second, their ratings in polls of European election vote intention are some ten points higher on average than they were in the run up to the 2009 contest for seats in the European Parliament (EP). Third, they have more than double the number of members and a much better, even if still small base in local councils having secured 147 seats in the 2013 local elections. Fourth, while they have benefitted in the past from Conservative supporters lending UKIP their vote, they are in an even better position to do so this time around given that the Tories are now in government. On top of that, if UKIP’s campaign to win even more support from working class voters is successful, they will make headway in areas where Labour are traditionally strong. The presence of the Liberal Democrats in government alongside the collapse of the BNP add to the auspicious conditions for UKIP in 2014. What do we know about likely UKIP voters at the 2014 European elections? Many Conservative supporters do appear to be lending their vote to UKIP. Around one quarter of those who would vote Conservative if a general election were held tomorrow, will vote UKIP at the European elections, on the basis of a YouGov poll of over 5,000 respondents in late April. Furthermore, 41% of those who voted Cons in 2010 say they will vote UKIP in May 2014. UKIP are therefore gaining in the European elections at the expense of the Conservatives far more than from other parties. UKIP are performing better among older and male voters and better among those in the C2DE classes compared with those classified as ABC1. Nevertheless, they still gain support from a little below one-quarter of ABC1 voters, a point that often seems to be neglected amid the party’s focus on picking up working class voters. At the 2009 European elections, Euroscepticism was the most powerful factor explaining the UKIP vote, with a desire to express views on the UK and the EU, dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and attitudes to immigration also important. A recent YouGov poll indicated that wanting out of the EU was the most frequently cited reason for supporting UKIP at the upcoming EP elections, although this may be partly a result of some respondents giving what they perceive to be the ‘right answer’ to the question. Looking at those saying they will vote UKIP at a general election, the party has made the biggest gains in the post-2010 election period among working class voters, as Ford and Goodwin spell out in their book Revolt on the Right . Nevertheless, they also show that UKIP gains on support from across a range of groups. Drawing on the British Election Study’s Continuous Monitoring Survey, fully 35% of UKIP supporters in the April 2012-April 2013 period were managers or professionals. The working class support that UKIP is gaining poses a problem for the Conservatives as well as Labour. Some of these working class UKIP voters are ex-Conservatives, others are blue collar voters who are part of a social group that the Conservatives used to attract but who now seem beyond their reach. These are the type of voters for whom the patriotism, social authoritarianism and aspirational aspects of Thatcherism were attractive. In winning working class support, UKIP makes it more difficult for the Conservatives to be a cross-class, cross-national party. Working class conservatives now face a Tebbit test about which side to cheer for, the Conservative Party or UKIP. UKIP’s expansion has brought with it some growing pains. The party has broadened its narrative to encompass policies – such as immigration – beyond its core issue of leaving the EU. However, a disconnect persists between the views of many in the UKIP leadership who favour Thatcherite economic policies and are socially liberal, and UKIP’s socially conservative, working class supporters. Nigel Farage has disowned UKIP’s 2010 election manifesto, and the party’s 2014 local and European election manifestos have a sharper focus on ‘betrayed working people’ than previously. Their current policy review could be used to dilute their small state, low tax approach but whether donors and activists would tolerate major changes in the party’s economic policy is not clear. In addition, growth has brought pressure for organisational change. The party has improved its approach with tougher candidate selection procedures for the European elections for instance. Nevertheless, the selection of candidates for council seats has clearly not been without problems. UKIP have belatedly realised the need to build up representation on local councils as part of the route towards winning seats at Westminster. In addition they are aware of their poorer performance among young people, women and ethnic minorities, and chose to feature all of these groups in their first Party Election Broadcast of the campaign. UKIP are set to expand their delegation in the European Parliament by some way at these elections. The ‘new UKIP’ contingent will look different partly because there are only six incumbent MEPs standing for the party and also because there are 6-7 women in winnable positions. Jane Collins and Jill Seymour top the lists in Yorkshire and the Humber, and the West Midlands respectively. Female UKIP candidates are in second place on the party’s lists in the North West, East Midlands, South East and South West plus a third-placed female candidate (Diane James) in the 10-seat South East region. 11 of the UKIP candidates in with a chance of winning a seat are former Conservatives including William Dartmouth, formerly a Conservative peer, and Roger Helmer who defected from the Tories in March 2012. Success for UKIP would mean many of their key personnel will be MEPs including not only the leader and deputy leader but their Director of Communications (Patrick O’Flynn), General Secretary (Jonathan Arnott) and the head of their policy unit (Tim Aker). While UKIP are open about the variation in approaches taken by their MEPs, those in major strategic positions for the party will surely have to spend a good deal of their time in the UK in order to carry out their party-based roles. In the aftermath of the European elections comes the process of forming groups in the European Parliament. Here UKIP may find things difficult in that their largest partner, the Italian Northern League, looks set to join a group led by Marine Le Pen’s Front National and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, if they can summon up the numbers of MEPs and member states needed. There may also be some competition with the European Conservatives and Reformists group for the more palatable Eurosceptics in the EP. UKIP success will pose strategic dilemmas for other parties. Should UKIP win the 2014 European elections, we can expect more dissent from Eurosceptic Conservative MPs who want to see the party take a tougher line on the EU and immigration. If UKIP perform well in Labour’s heartlands at a time when Miliband’s party are in opposition, Labour will face questions about how to respond to UKIP’s appeal. Ignoring it may not be an option. Alternatives are to hold their position and emphasise the Thatcherite elements of UKIP’s policies, or to move closer to UKIP on immigration and the EU. Evidently some Lib Dem voters have shifted to UKIP – most likely those who wanted an option other than the largest two parties. This trend could contribute to a sharp fall in Liberal Democrat vote share in 2014. In any case, a UKIP victory will pose questions of strategy for all three main parties. 06/05/2014 UKIP’s general and European electoral performance 18 16.1 16.5 16 14 12 10 8 7 6 4 3.1 1.5 2.2 Percentage of vote ofPercentagevote of Percentage Percentage of vote ofPercentagevote ofPercentage 2 0.3 0 1997 1999 2001 2004 2005 2009 2010 Election year General elections European elections General election vote intention (2012-14, YouGov polls) Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Percentage of respondents of Percentage 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Date Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/ European election vote intention (from YouGov polls) 2014 Conservative UKIP Labour Green Lib Dem BNP Percentage of respondents of Percentage 0 10 20 30 40 50 15_Jan 18_Mar 27_Mar 28_Mar 4_Apr 22_Apr 25_Apr 27_Apr Date Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/ 1 06/05/2014 2009 European Parliament elections – share of vote (%) Region Cons Lab UKIP Lib Dem BNP Green Others South 30.2 7.7 22.1 17.2 3.9 9.3 9.6 West West 28.1 17 21.3 12 8.6 6.2 6.7 Midlands East 31.2 10.5 19.6 13.8 6.1 8.8 10.1 South East 34.8 8.2 18.8 14.1 4.4 11.6 8 Yorks & 24.5 18.8 17.4 13.2 9.8 8.5 7.9 Humber East 30.2 16.9 16.4 12.3 8.7 6.8 8.7 Midlands North 25.6 20.4 15.8 14.3 8 7.7 8.2 West North