EUR0010.1177/0969776420977603European Urban and Regional StudiesMarkova and King 977603research-article2020 European Urban and Regional Euro Commentary Studies European Urban and Regional Studies 1 –8 Leave or remain? The post-Brexit © The Author(s) 2020 (im)mobility intentions of Bulgarians Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions in the United Kingdom DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776420977603 10.1177/0969776420977603 journals.sagepub.com/home/eur Eugenia Markova University of Brighton, UK Russell King University of Sussex, UK; Malmö University, Sweden Abstract In the light of impending Brexit, what factors shape European Union migrants’ plans to remain in or leave the UK? Based on an online survey of 360 Bulgarians, an under-researched migrant group in the UK, this study finds that the ones who plan to remain have lived longer in the UK, are skilled professionals and are well integrated into the labour market. Contrastingly, respondents who feel that they will be discriminated against in the labour market or in setting up a business are more likely to intend to leave post-Brexit. Keywords Brexit, Bulgarian migrants, discrimination, immobility, labour market integration, skills Introduction labour market and their perceptions of their future situation? We deploy data from a recent online sur- The 2016 referendum on whether the UK should vey of Bulgarians living in the UK to answer these remain in or leave the European Union (EU) was a questions. deeply disturbing event for the 3.3 million EU Following the referendum result, a flurry of pre- migrants living in the UK at the time. Overnight, dominantly qualitative studies, based on small-N they were confronted with an ironically analogous interview samples, recorded the reactions of EU decision: should they remain in the UK or should migrants to the generally unanticipated ‘Leave’ out- they leave? The American economist Joseph Berliner come.1 Amongst other topics, these studies explored (1977) wrote that ‘when a person chooses an occu- the dilemmas of decision-making and forward plan- pation . or a place of residence, he [sic] expects ning in the light of impending Brexit, and spoke of that choice to endure for some period of time. It the uncertainty provoked by slow-moving UK–EU takes a force of some magnitude to induce a change’. What is the magnitude of the ‘Brexit’ force that it could induce a change in the lives of EU nationals Corresponding author: Eugenia Markova, Brighton Business School, University of residing and working in the UK? How is this change Brighton, Mithras House, Lewes Rd., BN2 4AT Brighton, UK. dependent on migrants’ skills and position in the UK Email: [email protected] 2 European Urban and Regional Studies 00(0) negotiations and the repeated postponement of the qualifications, career advancement, property acquisi- formal date of leaving. Conceptually, these studies, tion, cultural capital accumulation and changes in per- based on the reactions of interviewee-participants, sonal circumstances, such as the formation of romantic framed Brexit as a ‘rupture’ (Owen, 2018), an ‘unset- partnerships and the birth of children. tling event’ (Kilkey and Ryan, 2020) and an ‘impasse’ Our study claims three advantages over prior (Anderson et al., 2020) which had not only profound studies on EU migrants in ‘Brexiting Britain’. First, political ramifications but also disturbing impacts on as already stated, previous research remains bounded the migrants, both psychologically and in terms of within a time frame of uncertainty and insecurity planning their future lives. As a result of the ‘atmos- before the UK government’s announcement of the phere’ surrounding Brexit, some EU migrants in the settlement scheme for EU nationals at the start of UK suddenly felt ‘victimised’ and ‘unwanted’ 2019. Second, previous studies have not quantita- (Mazzilli and King, 2018). Increased episodes of rac- tively investigated the relationship between future ist behaviour, including hate speech and other forms plans (leave or remain in the UK) and migrants’ of discrimination, were reported and experienced labour market integration, including skill character- (Guma and Jones, 2019; Rzepnikowska, 2019). istics. Third, this study is novel because of the pau- Whilst, for some, the result was a mobilisation of city of research on Bulgarians in the UK.2 what Lulle et al. (2018) called ‘tactics of belonging’ The paper is organised as follows. The next two and the affirmation of their moral and economic sections discuss the background to Bulgarian migra- rights to stay in the UK, for others processes of tion to the UK and the conceptual framework for ‘unbelonging’ (Mas Giralt, 2020) were set in motion. analysing the post-Brexit plans of the migrants, All of the above qualitative studies – in terms of focusing on their diverse skill profiles and labour their empirical data collection – were carried out in market integration, as well as their perceptions and the protracted period of uncertainty between the date experiences of discrimination. Then we describe the of the referendum, June 2016, and January 2019, survey and respondent characteristics. The succeed- when the then Prime Minister, Theresa May, launched ing section presents and discusses the results of the a settlement scheme for EU nationals who wanted to empirical analysis, followed by a brief conclusion. remain long-term in the UK. At the time of writing (July 2020), more than 3.3 million EU citizens have Background to Bulgarian acquired ‘settled’ or ‘pre-settled’ status (Home Office, 2020), a remarkable response which indicates migration to the UK the desire of the vast majority to remain in the UK, Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007, along with despite the changed political and social atmosphere, Romania, as part of the ‘second phase’ of eastern and outnumbering the countervailing tendency for a enlargement, following the much greater enlarge- ‘Brexodus’ of EU migrants. ment of 2004. However, there was an important These aggregate data on EU citizens’ plans to earlier history of Bulgarian migration to the UK, remain in the UK also speak to a wider conceptual including political dissidents during the Cold War debate: the extent to which intra-EU migration can be (Markova, 2010). A transition period (2007–2013) characterised as ‘liquid migration’ (Engbersen and was only partially effective in holding off the Snel, 2013), a kind of open-ended, semi-spontaneous, inflow to the UK, which accelerated after 2013 back-and-forth mobility of EU citizens enjoying their and, indeed, after the referendum. Office for freedom-of-movement rights. Other authors ques- National Statistics figures show that the number of tioned the ‘liquid’ nature of such movements, arguing Bulgarians in the UK grew sharply from just over instead for a progressive ‘grounding’ (Bygnes and 5,000 at the 2001 Census to 49,000 in 2011, 76,000 Erdal, 2017) and ‘social anchoring’ (Grzymala- in 2016 and 128,000 in 2019. Table 1 shows that Kazlowska, 2018) of intra-European migrants. the post-referendum increase was especially ‘Grounded’ or ‘anchored’ lives are shaped by the marked in the London region and Eastern England, ‘solidifying’ achievements of educational and training where the numbers more than doubled. Markova and King 3 Table 1. Geographical distribution of Bulgarian Table 2. Distribution of Bulgarian citizens and total nationals in the UK, pre- and post-referendum. UK population, of working age, in employment, by occupation, 2014–2106, in %. Jul 2015–Jun Jan–Dec 2016 2019 Bulgarian UK national average UK 76,000 128,000 England 69,000 117,000 Managers, directors, 4.0 10.2 North East 1000 c senior officials North West 5000 6000 Professional occupations 10.7 20.0 Yorkshire and the Humber 1000 4000 Associate professional, 7.3 14.3 East Midlands 2000 4000 technical occupations West Midlands 8000 9000 Administrative, secretarial 4.7 10.6 East 6000 11,000 occupations London 32,000 65,000 Skilled trades occupations 19.9 10.7 inner London 17,000 18,000 Caring, leisure, other 8.0 9.3 service occupations outer London 15,000 46,000 Sales, customer service 3.6 7.8 South East 11,000 13,000 occupations South West 5000 6000 Process, plant, machine 12 6.4 Wales 2000 3000 operatives Scotland 4000 6000 Elementary occupations 29.8 10.7 Northern Ireland c 2000 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 Source: Office for National Statistics data, compiled by the Source: Authors’ calculations based on Office for National authors. Statistics (2017) data. c: data not available due to disclosure control; therefore, totals may not tally exactly. argument of this paper is that secure legal status, Table 2 compares Bulgarians’ occupational pro- albeit acquired in a country which has voted to leave files with the UK national average. Bulgarians are the EU partly due to anti-immigrant sentiments half as likely to be in senior positions – as managers, among its population, facilitates successful labour directors and, in professional and administrative market integration and feelings of relative personal occupations. On the other hand, they are approxi- advantage which, in turn, incentivises remaining in mately twice as likely to be employed in skilled the host country. Following this logic, the more trades, including machine operatives and allied jobs, skilled and successful migrants are less likely to and three times more likely to be in elementary return to their home countries – where their human occupations. The typical working patterns of capital is under-rewarded – and more likely to Bulgarians (and Romanians, who have very a similar remain in a country with higher returns to their skills profile) are characterised by long working weeks (Ghosh, 1996). Hence, immobility, defined as the (61% work more than 40 hours, compared with the self-reported intention to remain long-term in the UK national average of 32%) and their median host country, is our key dependent variable.