APPENDIX 30-A Marine Vessel Incidence Prediction Inputs to the Quantitative Risk Assessment PORT METRO VANCOUVER | Roberts Bank Terminal 2 This page is intentionally left blank ROBERTS BANK TERMINAL 2 TECHNICAL REPORT Marine Vessel Incidence Prediction Inputs to the Quantitative Risk Assessment Prepared for: Port Metro Vancouver 100 The Pointe, 999 Canada Place Vancouver, BC V6C 3T4 Prepared by: Herbert Engineering Corp. 1040 Marina Village Parkway, Suite 200 Alameda, CA 94501 Environmental Research Consulting 41 Croft Lane Cortlandt Manor, NY 10567-1160 File: 2013-032-01 Rev. 2 September 2014 Port Metro Vancouver Herbert Engineering Corp. RBT2 – Marine Vessel Incidence Prediction Inputs to the QRA September 2014 Technical Report/Technical Data Report Disclaimer The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency determined the scope of the proposed Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project (RBT2 or the Project) and the scope of the assessment in the Final Environmental Impact Statement Guidelines (EISG) issued January 7, 2014. The scope of the Project includes the project components and physical activities to be considered in the environmental assessment. The scope of the assessment includes the factors to be considered and the scope of those factors. The Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) has been prepared in accordance with the scope of the Project and the scope of the assessment specified in the EISG. For each component of the natural or human environment considered in the EIS, the geographic scope of the assessment depends on the extent of potential effects. At the time supporting technical studies were initiated in 2011, with the objective of ensuring adequate information would be available to inform the environmental assessment of the Project, neither the scope of the Project nor the scope of the assessment had been determined. Therefore, the scope of supporting studies may include physical activities that are not included in the scope of the Project as determined by the Agency. Similarly, the scope of supporting studies may also include spatial areas that are not expected to be affected by the Project. This out-of-scope information is included in the Technical Report (TR)/Technical Data Report (TDR) for each study, but may not be considered in the assessment of potential effects of the Project unless relevant for understanding the context of those effects or to assessing potential cumulative effects. Port Metro Vancouver - i - Herbert Engineering Corp. RBT2 – Marine Vessel Incidence Prediction Inputs to the QRA September 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This technical report discusses an incidence prediction (IP) for marine vessel accidents due to the incremental increase in ship movements and port activities associated with the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project (RBT2). The IP is the probability assessment component of the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) being completed to satisfy the needs of the Environmental Assessment process. The proposed capacity for RBT2 is 2.4 million twenty foot equivalent containers (TEU). In 2030 these are projected to be carried on container ships ranging in size from less than 5,000 TEUs up to 18,000 TEUs. In 2030, 260 ship calls are projected at RBT2. Concurrently, there are projected to be 312 container ship calls at Deltaport Terminal, also with a container throughput of 2.4 M TEUs, for a total of 572 container ships calling at Roberts Bank servicing a total of 4.8 M TEUs. Thus, the RBT2 container ship traffic represents an 83% increase in the number of container ship calls and a doubling of the number of containers throughput. During this period, the coal shipments at the Westshore Terminals located at Roberts Bank are projected to reach 35 M tonnes shipped on approximately 313 bulk carriers. The scope of the IP includes developing predictions regarding types and probabilities of accidents related to shipping, berthing, loading, and unloading of container ships. It focuses on the expected immediate consequences of these accidents (for example, types and volume or mass of materials released to the environment), associated with the expected incremental increase in container ship activity associated with RBT2. The IP performed in this component of the QRA provides input to subsequent components that evaluate the secondary consequences of the events in terms of human and environmental receptors. Together these results will be used to assess the incremental risk of accidents and malfunctions associated with the increase in container ship movements. The IP process includes the following steps that are based on the structure of a risk assessment as outlined in the Pilotage Risk Management Methodology (PRMM) by Transport Canada: Identification of the Study Area; Definition of the Temporal Scope of the IP; Hazard Identification and Release Material Characterization; Identification of Existing Risk Mitigation Approaches; Development of the Vessel Traffic Affected; Development of Accident Rates; Incidence Prediction and Associated Release Amounts; and Frequency Assessment and Metrics for Future Predictions. Port Metro Vancouver - ii - Herbert Engineering Corp. RBT2 – Marine Vessel Incidence Prediction Inputs to the QRA September 2014 The Study Area includes the immediate terminal area where the container ships engage in maneuvering, berthing and cargo loading and unloading, referred to as the In-Port area, plus the adjacent waters where the increased container ship traffic interacts with other vessels transiting the area, referred to as the In- Transit area. The extent of the In-Transit Study Area is limited to the area where container ship traffic bound for Roberts Bank is distinguishable from other traffic in that their routes deviate from other regional traffic. The IP uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and Port Metro Vancouver ship call data to establish the existing vessel traffic in 2012. Future vessel traffic projections are primarily based on the year 2030 in order to assess the changes in marine vessel accident incidence once RBT2 is fully operational and at peak throughput, and other reasonably foreseeable marine facilities are also functioning. Regulatory requirements influencing ship construction, particularly international requirements for protective location of fuel tanks, play an important role in incidence of accidents with the potential to damage the environment. To assess this, an interim year, 2025, is included when the full projected number of ships calling at RBT2 is expected to be reached, but fewer of these ships would have been constructed in consideration of the fuel tank protection requirements. The IP includes predictions with and without RBT2. Vessel traffic in the region, and thus, accident incidence, is also a function of the existence of potential marine facilities other than RBT2. The influence that the addition of RBT2 has on accident incidence is dependent upon the background level of traffic assumed. For this reason, four future (2030) projections for vessel traffic are made in addition to the year 2012 to enable comparisons against different background vessel traffic levels. The vessel traffic scenarios evaluated are: 1. Year 2012; 2. Increases in vessel traffic due to growth consistent with existing marine facilities, without RBT2; 3. Increases in vessel traffic due to growth consistent with existing marine facilities, with RBT2; 4. Increases in vessel traffic due to growth consistent with foreseeable new marine facilities, without RBT2; and 5. Increases in vessel traffic due to growth consistent with foreseeable new marine facilities, with RBT2. Hazard and accident types have been identified based upon interrogation of incident, accident and casualty databases, review of literature including other QRAs, and professional experience of PMV, stakeholders, experts and the study authors. Container shipping has also been the subject of a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Accident types identified for consideration for RBT2 include: allisions, collisions, groundings (drift and powered), fires and explosions (F/E), and container mishandling accidents. Potential spill materials and their characteristics for consequence assessment have been identified. These include a range of Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS) as these are commonly carried in containers in addition to petroleum products including fuel oils, crude oils and operational lubricants. Port Metro Vancouver - iii - Herbert Engineering Corp. RBT2 – Marine Vessel Incidence Prediction Inputs to the QRA September 2014 The southern British Columbia coast is a mature marine vessel traffic area that is regularly used by deep sea vessels. Traffic in the region applies many marine risk mitigation approaches including a vessel traffic management system and pilotage requirements. Existing mitigation practices at the Roberts Bank terminals include, among others: one way, one ship at a time, traffic at a terminal, and prohibition of bunkering at the terminal. Design of container ships includes mitigation through the installation of fire detection and extinguishing systems, reduced use of heavy fuel oil, and, for ships constructed since 2010, protective location of fuel oil tanks. Accident rates for the Vancouver region were developed on the basis of incident and casualty data from several sources, including the Transportation Safety Board, Canadian Coast Guard, Pacific Pilotage Authority, and Sea-Web databases. In this analysis, an event is classified as an incident