The London Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment 2017 Part of the London Plan evidence base COPYRIGHT Greater London Authority November 2017 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen’s Walk More London London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk enquiries 020 7983 4100 minicom 020 7983 4458 Copies of this report are available from www.london.gov.uk 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Contents Chapter Page 0 Executive summary 1 to 7 1 Introduction 8 to 11 2 Large site assessment – methodology 12 to 52 3 Identifying large sites & the site assessment process 53 to 58 4 Results: large sites – phases one to five, 2017 to 2041 59 to 82 5 Results: large sites – phases two and three, 2019 to 2028 83 to 115 6 Small sites 116 to 145 7 Non self-contained accommodation 146 to 158 8 Crossrail 2 growth scenario 159 to 165 9 Conclusion 166 to 186 10 Appendix A – additional large site capacity information 187 to 197 11 Appendix B – additional housing stock and small sites 198 to 202 information 12 Appendix C - Mayoral development corporation capacity 203 to 205 assigned to boroughs 13 Planning approvals sites 206 to 231 14 Allocations sites 232 to 253 Executive summary 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Executive summary 0.1 The SHLAA shows that London has capacity for 649,350 homes during the 10 year period covered by the London Plan housing targets (from 2019/20 to 2028/29). This equates to an average annualised capacity of 64,935 homes a year. 55% is in Outer London - 357,890 homes 45% of this capacity is in Inner London - 291,460 homes 39% of London’s housing capacity is in East London 21% is in West London 17% is in South London 11% is in North London 12% is in Central London 300,000 250,000 200,000 Outer Inner London London 150,000 55% 45% 100,000 50,000 0 Central East North South West Figure 1.1 – Housing capacity by local planning authority (2019/20 – 2028/29) 1 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT 0.2 Large sites (0.25 hectares and more in size) provide capacity for 400,470 homes during this period, approximately 40,000 a year. This accounts for 62% of London’s overall housing capacity during the 10 year period and represents an 11,000 a year increase on the large site capacity findings during phase two and three of the previous 2013 SHLAA study, which covered the period 2015 to 2025. 0.3 Capacity for 140,500 homes has been identified on approvals sites with planning permission. These make up 35% of London’s large site capacity during the housing target period. Allocations account for 39% of London’s large site capacity during this period (155,600 homes). The remaining capacity has been identified on other large potential developments sites which provide potential for 100,000 homes and make up 25% of London’s large site capacity during this period. 0.4 Of the housing capacity identified on large sites during this period: 69% is within opportunity areas - 275,000 homes 32% is either within or on the edge of town centres - 127,000 homes 56% is in PTAL Zones 4 to 6, providing capacity for 143,000 homes; 36% is identified in PTAL Zones 2 to 3 (93,000 homes)1. Only 8% of this capacity is in PTALs 0 to 1. 0.4 Small sites provide capacity for 245,730 homes over the 10 year period and account for 38% of overall housing capacity in London within the target. For the purpose of the SHLAA study, small sites are sites below 0.25 hectares in size and can include housing completions through new build developments, change of use and residential conversions. 0.5 Capacity assumptions on small sites have been informed by modelling undertaken by the GLA to estimate the potential for increased levels of housing delivery on small sites (above recent trends) to reflect the potential impact of policy changes in the draft new London Plan – including a new presumption in favour of small housing developments - alongside measures outlined in the Mayor’s draft Housing Strategy. This modelling is explained in more detail in chapter 6. Table 1.1 – 10 year housing targets (2019/20 – 2028/29) by component Non self Total 10 year Large sites Small sites contained capacity 10 year capacity 400,470 245,730 3,150 649,350 Annualised capacity 40,070 24,573 315 64,935 Percentage share of total 62% 38% 0.5% 100% 1 allocations and potential development sites (not approvals) 2 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT 0.6 Approximately, 9,800 units are expected to be delivered during the 10 year London Plan target on the net pipeline of non-self contained housing accommodation. This is made up of student accommodation, specialist accommodation for older people, hostels and other shared living schemes. 0.7 The London Plan proposes to be monitor the majority of non self contained accommodation on the basis of a 3:1 ratio – meaning that 3 non-self contained units of accommodation are counted as a single home for the purposes of contributing towards housing targets and capacity assumptions. This reflects the amount of overall conventional housing stock that this form of provision is likely to free-up. 0.8 This is different to the approach taken to monitoring this form of housing provision in previous London Plans and SHLAA studies, which have historically monitored this form of provision on a 1:1 basis. This change seeks to align the approach in London with the Government’s approach to monitoring this form of housing supply and planning practice guidance2. 0.9 However, the London Plan proposes a different approach for monitoring non self- contained specialist accommodation for older people (C2 – care homes) which would be counted towards housing targets on a 1:1 basis, as its provision would be likely to result in a single home being freed-up for occupation. Further explanation for the methodology used to calculate non-self contained housing is provided in chapter 7. Figure 1.2 – capacity on small sites under 0.25 hectares (2019/20 – 2028/29) 2 DCLG, Planning Practice Guidance, DCLG, PPG, Paragraph: 037 Reference ID: 3-037-20150320; DCLG, PPG, Paragraph: 038 Reference ID: 3-038-20140306 3 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Figure 1.3 – 10 year housing targets (2019/20 – 2028/29) by component Westminster Wandsworth Waltham Forest Tower Hamlets Sutton Southwark Richmond upon Thames Redbridge OPDC Newham Merton LLDC Lewisham Lambeth Kingston upon Thames Kensington and Chelsea Islington Hounslow Hillingdon Havering Harrow Haringey Hammersmith and Fulham Hackney Greenwich Enfield Ealing Croydon City of London Camden Bromley Brent Bexley Barnet Barking and Dagenham 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Large sites Small sites total Non self contained 4 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Table 1.1 – overall housing capacity (2019/20 to 2028/29) Total 10 year capacity Annual capacity Barking and Dagenham 22,640 2,264 Barnet 31,340 3,134 Bexley 12,450 1,245 Brent 29,150 2,915 Bromley 14,240 1,424 Camden 10,860 1,086 City of London 1,460 146 Croydon 29,490 2,949 Ealing 28,070 2,807 Enfield 18,760 1,876 Greenwich 32,040 3,204 Hackney 13,300 1,330 Hammersmith and Fulham 16,480 1,648 Haringey 19,580 1,958 Harrow 13,920 1,392 Havering 18,750 1,875 Hillingdon 15,530 1,553 Hounslow 21,820 2,182 Islington 7,750 775 Kensington and Chelsea 4,880 488 Kingston upon Thames 13,640 1,364 Lambeth 15,890 1,589 Lewisham 21,170 2,117 LLDC 21,610 2,161 Merton 13,280 1,328 Newham 38,500 3,850 OPDC 13,670 1,367 Redbridge 19,790 1,979 Richmond upon Thames 8,110 811 Southwark 25,540 2,554 Sutton 9,390 939 Tower Hamlets 35,110 3,511 Waltham Forest 17,940 1,794 Wandsworth 23,100 2,310 Westminster 10,100 1,010 Total 649,350 64,935 5 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Table 1.2 – housing capacity on small sites (2019/20 to 2028/29) 10 year small Annual small sites target sites capacity Barking and Dagenham 5,190 519 Barnet 12,040 1204 Bexley 8,650 865 Brent 10,230 1023 Bromley 10,290 1029 Camden 3,760 376 City of London 740 74 Croydon 15,110 1511 Ealing 10,740 1074 Enfield 9,830 983 Greenwich 6,810 681 Hackney 6,600 660 Hammersmith and Fulham 2,980 298 Haringey 6,260 626 Harrow 9,650 965 Havering 9,040 904 Hillingdon 7,650 765 Hounslow 6,800 680 Islington 4,840 484 Kensington and Chelsea 1,690 169 Kingston upon Thames 6,250 625 Lambeth 6,540 654 Lewisham 8,290 829 LLDC 800 80 Merton 6,710 671 Newham 9,500 950 OPDC 60 6 Redbridge 9,380 938 Richmond upon Thames 6,340 634 Southwark 8,000 800 Sutton 7,380 738 Tower Hamlets 5,660 566 Waltham Forest 8,890 889 Wandsworth 7,740 774 Westminster 5,290 529 Total 245,730 24,573 6 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Table 1.3 – net non self-contained pipeline based on a 3:1 ratio (2019/20 to 2028/29) Net NSC pipeline of Net NSC Rounded down to bedrooms phases pipeline at 3 to nearest 10 units two and three 1 ratio B&D 18 6 0 Barnet 1,034 345 340 Bexley 98 33 30 Brent 1,600 533 530 Bromley 95 32 30 Camden -413 -138 -130 City of London 606 202 200 Croydon 24 8 0 Ealing 2,715 905 900 Enfield -337 -112 -110 Greenwich 687 229 220 Hackney 299 100 90 H&F 111 37 30 Haringey 71 24 20 Harrow 181 60 60 Havering -26 -9 0 Hillingdon 26 9 0 Hounslow -11 -4 0 Islington 293 98 90 K&C 18 6 0 Kingston 174 58 50 Lambeth 447 149 140 Lewisham 26 9 0 LLDC 733 244 240 Merton 116 39 30 Newham 456 152 150 Redbridge 104 35 30 Richmond -19 -6 0 Southwark 52 17 10 Sutton 25 8 0 Tower Hamlets 45 15 10 Waltham Forest 326 109 100 Wandsworth 250 83 80 Westminster 56 19 10 Total 9,880 3,293 3,150 7 1 Introduction 8 2017 LONDON STRATEGIC HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT 1 Introduction 1.1 The purpose of the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) is to identify the amount of housing capacity that can be brought forwards during the timescale of the new London Plan to address the capital’s overall housing need.