CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY TRENDS IN PAKISTAN AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Thesis submitted to Department of Environmental Sciences University of Peshawar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy By Salma Department of Environmental Sciences University of Peshawar Session: 2011 CONTENTS List of Contents ------------------- i List of Tables---------------------- v List of Figures--------------------- vii List of Abbreviation----------- ix Acknowledgment------------------ x Abstract ----------------------- ---- xi LIST OF CONTENTS S. No Title Page No Chapter # 1 Introduction`` 1 1.1 Climate of Pakistan 14 1.2 Objectives 17 1.3 Justification 17 Chapter#2 Literature Review 18 2.1. Studies related to the determination of Temperature trend 18 2.2 Studies related to the determination of Rainfall trend 21 2.3 Collective studies related to the determination of 22 Temperature, Rainfall and River Discharge trends Chapter #3 Research Methodology 26 3.1 Data Acquisition 26 3.2 Climate Zones of the study area 27 3.2.1 Zone 1 27 3.2.2. Zone 2 27 3.2.3. Zone 3a 27 3.2.4 Zone 3b 27 3.2.5. Zone 4 28 3.3. Limitation of the data 29 3.4 Data Analysis 30 i 3.4.1. Mean 30 3.4.2. Outliers 30 3.4.3. 5% Trimmed Mean 30 3.4.4. Median 30 3.4.5. Standard Deviation 31 3.4.6. Standard Error 31 3.4.7. 95% confidence interval (CI) for the mean 31 3.4.8. Skewness 31 3.4.9. ANOVA test 32 3.5. Trend Visualization 34 3.5.1. Mapping 34 3.5.2. Graphical Presentations 35 3.6. Trend Forecasting 35 Chapter # 4 Results and Discussion 37 4.1. Temperature 37 4.1.1. Introduction 38 4.1.2. Data collection and analysis 38 4.1.3. Results of temperature data 39 4.1.3.1. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result of Mean Minimum 39 and Maximum Temperature 4.1.3.2. Zonal Analysis 42 4.1.3.2.1. Zone1 42 4.1.3.2.2. Zone2 44 4.1.3.2.3. Zone 3a 45 4.1.3.2.4. Zone 3b 47 4.1.3.2.5. Zone 4 48 4.1.3.3. Single station analysis 49 ii 4.1.3.4. Whole study area analysis 53 4.1.3.5. Entire study period analysis 57 4.1.4. Discussion 59 4.2. Rainfall 63 4.2.1. Introduction 63 4.2.2. Data collection and analysis 63 4.2.3. Results of rainfall data 64 4.2.3.1. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA results 64 4.2.3.2. Zonal Analysis 66 4.2.3.2.1. Zone1 66 4.2.3.2.2. Zone2 68 4.2.3.2.3 Zone 3a 69 4.2.3.2.4. Zone 3b 71 4.2.3.2.5. Zone 4 72 4.2.3.3. Single station analysis 73 4.2.3.4. Whole study area analysis 75 4.2.3.5. Entire study period analysis 77 4.2.4. Discussion 78 4.3. River flows 79 4.3.1. Introduction 79 4.3.2. Data Collection and Analysis 80 4.3.3. Results of ensuing rivers 80 4.3.3.1. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA results 80 4.3.3.2. Single Gauge station analysis 81 4.4. Hydro-Meteorological characteristics 82 4.4.1 River basin analysis 83 iii 4.4.1.1. Astor River 83 4.4.1.2. Chitral River 85 4.4.1.3. Gilgit River 87 4.4.1.4. Indus River at Chilas Station 89 4.4.1.5. Indus River at Skardu Station 91 4.4.1.6. Swat River 93 4.4.2 Discussion 95 4.5. Trend Forecasting 97 4.5.1. Discussion 101 4.6. Environmental effects of climate change in Pakistan 102 Chapter # 5 Conclusion 105 References 108 iv LIST OF TABLES S. No Title Page No 3.1. Ensuing rivers and their geographical information 28 4.1. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA results of minimum and maximum 40 temperatures for all climate zones. 4.2. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA results (three decades) for the whole 41 country 4.3. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone 1 43 4.4 Duncan test for homogenous subset of Alpha for zone1 44 4.5. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone2 45 4.6. Duncan test for homogenous subset of Alpha for zone 2 45 4.7. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone 3a 46 4.8 Duncan test for homogenous subset of Alpha for zone 3a 46 4.9. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone 3b 47 4.10 Duncan test for homogenous subset of Alpha for zone 3b. 48 4.11 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone 4. 49 4.12 Duncan test for homogenous subset of Alpha for zone4. 49 4.13 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for climate zones. 65 4.14 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for the whole 66 4.15 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone 1 67 4.16 Dunnett T3 test for multiple comparison 67 4.17 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone2 68 4.18 Dunnett T3 for multiple comparison 69 4.19 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone3a 70 4.20 Dunnett T3 for multiple comparisons. 70 4.21 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone 3b 71 4.22 Dunnett T3 for multiple comparisons. 71 v 4.23 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for zone4 72 4.24 Dunnett T3 test for multiple comparisons 73 4.25 Descriptive statistics and ANOVA result for ensuing rivers 81 4.26 Single gauge station data analysis for trend determination 82 4.27 Water yield per annum in catchment‘s basin 82 4.28 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of Astor river basin 84 4.29 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of Chitral river basin 86 4.30 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of Gilgit river basin 88 4.31 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of Indus river/ Chilas basin 90 4.32 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of Indus river/ Skardu basin 92 4.33 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of Swat river 94 4.34 Trend forecasting of the climatic variables through different climatic 98 models vi LIST OF FIGURES S.No Title Page No 1.1 Climate change due to natural processes and anthropogenic 2 actions and its environmental effects 3.1. (A): Basic information of the selected climatic zones, stations 26 and ensuing rivers along with their longitudes and latitudes. 4.1 Mean annual temperatures in all climate zones of the study area. 41 (A): Mean annual minimum temperature (B): Mean annual maximum temperature 4.2 Mean annual minimum ,maximum and mean temperatures in 42 the whole study area 4.3 Map of Pakistan showing significant increase, decrease and no 50 change in the minimum temperature. (A): For period 1976-1990; (B): For period 1991-2005. 4.4 Map of Pakistan showing significant increase, decrease and no 53 change in the maximum temperature. (A): For period 1976-1990; (B): For period 1991-2005. 4.5 Whole study area analysis showing significant increase, decrease 54 and no change in the minimum temperature (A): For period 1976-1990; (B): For period 1991-2005. 4.6 Whole study area analysis showing significant increase, decrease 56 and no change in the maximum temperature (A): For period 1976-1990; (B): For period 1991-2005. 4.7 Mean annual temperatures of the entire period 1976-2005. (A): 59 Mean annual minimum temperature (B): Mean annual maximum temperature. (C): Mean annual temperature 4.8. Mean annual rainfall in all climate zones of the study area. 65 4.9 Mean annual rainfall in the whole study area. 66 4.10 Map of Pakistan showing significant increase, decrease and no 75 change in the mean annual rainfall. (A): For period 1976-1990; (B): For period 1991-2005.. 4.11. Whole study area analysis showing significant increase, 76 decrease and no change in the mean annual rainfall (A): For period 1976-1990; (B): For period 1991-2005. 4.12. Mean annual rainfall trend for the entire study period from 1976- 77 2005 4.13 Single river discharge on decadal basis 81 4.14 Flow duration curve for Astor river from period 1976-2000 84 vii 4.15 Hydrograph of mean annual discharge of Astor river 85 4.16 Flow duration curve for Chitral river from period 1976-2000 87 4.17 Hydrograph of mean annual discharge of Chitral river 87 4.18 Flow duration curve for Gilgit river from period 1976-2000 89 4.19 Hydrograph of mean annual discharge of Gilgit river 89 4.20 Flow duration curve for Indus river/Chilas from period 1976- 91 2000 4.21 Hydrograph of mean annual discharge of Indus river/Chilas 91 4.22 Flow duration curve for Indus river/Skardu from period 1976- 93 2000 4.23 Hydrograph of mean annual discharge of Indus river/ Skardu 93 4.24 Flow duration curve for Swat river from period 1976-2000 95 4.25 Hydrograph of mean annual discharge of Swat river 95 4.26 Mean minimum temperature trend from 1976-2035. (B): Mean 99-101 maximum temperature trend from 1976-2035. (C): Mean annual mean temperature trend from 1976-2035. (D): Mean annual rainfall trend from 1976-2035 with included drought period. (E): Mean annual rainfall trend from 1976-2035 with excluded drought period viii LIST OF ABBREVIATION ANOVA Analysis of Variance ANP Asia Pacific Network Arc GIS Arc Geographical Information System ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average CDPC Climate Data Processing Centre CH4 Methane CNG Compressed Natural Gas CO2, Carbon Dioxide CRCD Climatologically Record from Climate Data Centre DTR Diurnal temperature change EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GHG Green House Gases HCDN Hydro Climatic Data Network HMSS Harmonic Mean Sample Size IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LCL Lower Critical Limit N2O Nitrogen oxides NASA National aeronautics and Space Administration NEQS National Environmental Quality Standards NOAA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NSIP National Stream flow Information Program NWFP North West Frontier Province O3 Ozone PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department SPSS Special Package for Social Sciences SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios UCL Upper Critical Limit UIB Upper Indus Basin UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme USGS United States Geological Survey WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority WHO World Health Organization ix ACKNOWLEDGMENT First of all, I would like to thank my supervisors Dr.