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Ringel, Jeffrey Wasserman, Lloyd Dixon, Fred Kipperman, and Robert T. Reville CONTRIBUTORS C O R P O R A T I O N Funding for this book was made possible by RAND’s Investment in People and Ideas program, which combines philanthropic contributions from individuals, foundations, and private-sector firms with earnings from RAND’s endowment and operations to support innovative research on issues crucial to the policy debate but that reach beyond the boundaries of traditional client sponsorship. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The long shadow of 9/11 : America's response to terrorism / Brian Michael Jenkins, John Paul Godges, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5833-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. 2. War on Terrorism, 2001-2009. 3. United States—Military policy—21st century. I. Jenkins, Brian Michael. II. Godges, John Paul. HV6432.L64 2011 363.325'160973—dc23 2011026477 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Cover design by Peter Soriano. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand. org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Foreword In remarks at the opening of the 14th NATO Review Meeting in Berlin, Germany, on September 19, 2001, just eight days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, I characterized the terrorists as “a party to a virtual civil war within Islam—a war between extremists and moderates.” I also noted that the civil war was not limited to Islam. Militant white supremacists in the United States often refer to Christian scripture to justify their acts. There are also extremist Jews, some of whom are vio- lent. There are Hindu terrorists as well. This means that our policies “should not focus on religion per se,” I argued. “True adherents are not violent and do not support violence. The extremists who are our problem are fanatics. They are the antith- esis of the religion they purport to represent.” Fortunately, the United States and its European allies have resisted making religion a focal point of counterterrorism efforts. As discussed in this volume, other U.S. policies in the Middle East since 9/11 have weakened and sometimes strengthened the hand of the extremists. We’ve had many policy successes and dealt the extremists many blows, but the Iraq War, the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison, and the indefinite detention of enemy combatants at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base have assisted the extremists in recruiting foot soldiers for their war. In Berlin, I called for a policy that would balance offensive and defensive components. The offensive components would be inter- national cooperation, diplomacy, intelligence, efforts to promote democracy and to silence hate mongering, police work, development assistance, counterproliferation, and military power. The defensive iii iv The Long Shadow of 9/11: America’s Response to Terrorism components would be passive as well as active, from transportation security and infrastructure protection to missile defenses and other military measures to deny enemy access to U.S. territories. This volume can be considered a partial update of how well the United States has pursued many of these priorities. Its chapters track the ongoing civil war within Islam, assess crucial lessons from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, acknowledge how America has overreacted at times, identify opportunities that have yet to be explored, and discuss how America can continue to be true to its highest self. More than a policy primer, this book turns a constructively criti- cal eye toward America itself in the years since 9/11. The authors offer informed commentary on the larger social, cultural, military, and other implications of U.S. policymaking, while still remaining grounded in a solid research foundation. The hope is that these commentaries will lend a uniquely broad and farsighted perspective to the national dia- logue on the legacy of 9/11. James A. Thomson President and Chief Executive Officer RAND Corporation June 2011 Contents Foreword .......................................................................... iii Acknowledgments ............................................................... xi Introduction: The Shadow of 9/11 Across America Brian Michael Jenkins and John Paul Godges ............................... 1 A Moment to Reflect .............................................................. 2 An Honest Accounting ........................................................... 4 An American Perspective ......................................................... 6 A Better Criterion ................................................................. 7 PArt One: Humbled by Hubris ...................................... 9 Chapter One The Costs of Overreaction James Dobbins ................................................................. 15 Overreactions and Underestimates ............................................. 15 Bruised but Not Broken ......................................................... 18 Related Reading ................................................................. 20 Chapter twO A long-Overdue Adaptation to the Afghan environment Arturo Muñoz ................................................................ 23 How the Western-Lead Model Has Caused Problems ....................... 25 What an Afghan-Lead Model Could Have Looked Like .................. 28 Related Reading ................................................................. 34 v vi The Long Shadow of 9/11: America’s Response to Terrorism Chapter Three lessons from the tribal Areas Seth G. Jones................................................................... 37 Debating the Threat ............................................................. 38 Countering al Qaeda and Its Allies ........................................... 42 A Long War ...................................................................... 44 Related Reading .................................................................. 45 Chapter FOur The Iraq war: Strategic Overreach by America—and Also al Qaeda Frederic Wehrey ............................................................... 47 The Narrative Godsend to al Qaeda .......................................... 48 The University of Jihad? ......................................................... 49 The (Mis)management of Savagery ............................................ 50 Lessons Learned by al Qaeda . ............................................... 51 . and the United States ........................................................ 52 The Iraq War Versus the Arab Uprisings ...................................... 53 Related Reading ................................................................