THE IMPACT OF THREAT ENVIRONMENTS ON WESTERN PATTERNS OF CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS (SEPTEMBER 11,2001-SEPTEMBER 11,2006) by DRAGOS CONSTANTIN POPA, M.A. A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science Carleton University Ottawa, Canada 2008 © Drago§ Constantin Popa Library and Bibliotheque et 1*1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-43904-3 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-43904-3 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par Plntemet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. 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Canada Abstract This thesis investigates patterns of civil-military relations in Western countries over a period of five years (September 11, 2001-September 11, 2006). It argues that there is a direct correlation between specific threat environments (the independent variables) and models of civil-military interaction (the dependent variables). To link analytically the overall threat configuration during the given timeframe to civil-military relations, the thesis identifies five intermediate variables: (i) defence spending, (ii) government policies, (iii) defence transformation, (iv) relations with the United States of America and (v) military responses to the new threat environment. Employing two case studies, Canada and Romania, the thesis tests and provides evidence against the validity of one of the major theoretical constructs in the field of civil-military relations, Michael C. Desch's framework on the relationship between threat configurations and forms of civilian oversight of the armed forces. The thesis argues that in the first five years of the post- 9/11 era countries such as Canada and Romania faced an ^determinate threat environment that did not fit closely any of Desch's categories. During this five-year timeframe, the empirical data gathered from the two national contexts suggest that there were frequent instances of serious disagreement between civilian and military leaders. While the overall principle of civilian control over the armed forces was not openly called into question, the study revealed discordance between the two sides on many of the issue areas investigated in this thesis. The empirical findings and theoretical implications tend to falsify Desch's theory or render it irrelevant in most cases potentially applicable to contemporary Western polities. The thesis assesses the observed data and Desch's framework against the background of other theoretical constructs and offers a set of research suggestions meant to advance future work in the field of civil-military relations. ii Dedication and Acknowledgements This thesis is dedicated to my wife, Iulia. Without her amazing patience, invaluable advice, constant encouragement and unconditional love I could not have achieved this goal. It is equally dedicated to our two sons, Thomas and David - who were born during the process of writing this thesis - as a source of future inspiration and proof that hard work and perseverance pay off in the end. I am deeply indebted to Professor Piotr Dutkiewicz (Carleton University), who kindly agreed to be my supervisor and mentor for the past seven years, during my M.A. and Ph.D. programs at Carleton University. I would like to express my gratitude for his continuous guidance, academic support and encouragement throughout these years, and to note his vast knowledge and expertise in many academic areas and his selfless dedication to students' well-being. I am also extremely grateful to the other members of my committee, particularly Professor Joel J. Sokolsky (Royal Military College) for taking time out from his busy schedule to serve as my external reader and for his many and very insightful comments on various drafts of this thesis. Special thanks go to Professor Harald von Riekhoff (Carleton University) who provided me with direction and technical support at many junctures while working on this dissertation. Deep thanks to Professor Norman Hillmer (Carleton University) and Professor Elinor Sloan (Carleton University) for suggesting improvements at a time when I was not aware of the extent to which the thesis needed revisions, thus making it a much better manuscript. Their vast expertise and kind willingness to share their knowledge with students are greatly appreciated. I would like to acknowledge, for the positive impact they made on my academic life, Professor Joan DeBardeleben (Carleton University), Professor Morgan Wilhelmsson (Hogskolan i JonkQping) and Professor Tudor Vlad (Universitatea Babe§-Bolyai and University of Georgia). This thesis has partly been supported through a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada doctoral fellowship, an Edward Bower Carty Scholarship for Outstanding Students, other scholarships provided by Carleton University and a travel research grant provided by the European Commission through the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University. Their support is gratefully acknowledged. iii Table of Contents Abstract ii Dedication and Acknowledgements iii Table of Contents iv I. Introduction 1 II. Theoretical Foundations and Methodological Approaches 4 ILL Introduction 4 11.2. Analytical statements and methodological framework 4 II.2.a. Main arguments 4 II.2.b. Research design 8 II.2.C. Research methods 16 11.3. The place of the study in the civil-military relations literature 20 II.3.a. Carl von Clausewitz 27 II.3.b. Samuel P. Huntington 29 II.3.C. Morris Janowitz 33 II.3.d. Samuel E. Finer 36 II.3.e. Rebecca L. Schiff 38 II.3.f. Douglas L. Bland 40 II.3.g. Michael C. Desch 42 II.3.h. Peter D. Feaver 45 II.3.L Eliot A. Cohen 48 HI. New Threat Environment, New Strategic Priorities 51 III. 1. Introduction 51 111.2. General considerations 56 III.2.a. Introductory remarks 56 III.2.b. The impact of 9/11 on the post-Cold War world order 59 III.2.C. A new breed of terrorism 66 IIL2.C.L Nuclear terrorism 71 III.2.c.ii. Chemical terrorism 74 III.2.c.iii. Biological terrorism 75 111.3. Case study: Canada 81 III.3.a. Introductory remarks 81 III.3.b. The Canadian perspective on the new security environment 83 III.3.C Post-9/11 security concerns in Canada 92 III.3.d. A "fire-proof house" no more 100 111.4. Case study: Romania 106 III.4.a. Introductory remarks 106 III.4.b. The Romanian perspective on the new security environment 109 III.4.C. Post-9/11 security concerns in Romania 117 III.4.d. A "proactive" security and defence policy 124 IV. The Transformation of Military Affairs 134 IV.l. Introduction 134 iv IV.2. General considerations 135 IV.3. Case study: Canada 149 IV.3.a. Defence background 149 IV.3.b. Government policies 154 IV.3.b.i. 2005: The International Policy Statement 155 IV.3.b.ii. 2004: The National Security Policy 159 IV.3.C. Defence transformation 161 IV.3.c.i. The idea of transformation 161 IV.3.c.ii. Developments in the transformation process... 163 IV.3.c.iii. Transformation challenges 167 IV.3.d. Canada-United States defence relations 170 IV.3.e. Military responses 175 IV.4. Case study: Romania 181 IV.4.a. Defence background 181 IV.4.b. Government policies 188 IVAb.i. 2006: The National Security Strategy 190 IV.4.b.ii. 2004: The White Paper on Security and National Defence 193 IVAb.iii. 2001: The National Security Strategy of Romania 195 IV.4.C. Defence transformation 197 IV.4.c.i. The idea of transformation 197 IVAc.ii. Developments in the transformation process 199 IVAc.iii. Transformation challenges 203 rVA.d. Romania-United States defence relations 205 IVAe. Military responses 210 V. Patterns in Post-9/11 Civil-Military Relations 217 V.l. Introduction 217 V.2. Civil-military relations in Canada 218 V.2.a. Introduction 218 V.2.a.i. General overview 218 V.2.a.ii. Roles and functions 221 V.2.a.iii. Parliamentary oversight 226 V.2.a.iv. Three political regimes 228 V.2.b. Defence spending 235 V.2.c. Government policies 244 V.2.d. Defence transformation 255 V.2.e. Canada-United States defence relations 263 V.2.f.