WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION ESCAP WMO FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES THIRTY­EIGHTH SESSION New Delhi, India (21 ­ 25 February 2011) FINAL REPORT GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE SESSION 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION The thirty­eighth session of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) hosted by India was held in New Delhi, India from 21 to 25 February 2011. The session was attended by xx participants from the eight Members of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones, namely, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It was also attended by observers from China, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi and ICAO, ICHARM, RIMES and representatives from WMO, UNESCAP and PTC Secretariat. The list of the participants as well as the capacities in which they attended is given in Appendix I. 1.1 Opening of the session 1.1.1 An inaugural function of the session was held at 1100 hrs IST of 21 February 2011 at SCOPE Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi. 1.1.2 Shri M. Sashidhar Reddy; Hon’ble Vice Chairman, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, was the Chief Guest in the programme. Dr. Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India presided over the meeting. 1.1.3 AVM (Dr) Ajit Tyagi, Director General of Meteorology, IMD and Permanent Representative of India with WMO welcomed the guests and delegates for the 38th Session of WMO/ESCAP Panel. 1.1.4 Distinguished delegates and invitees in the inaugural function included Dr Quamar­ uz­Zaman Chaudhry, Secretary of PTC and Permanent Representative of Pakistan with WMO, Dr. T. Toya, Regional Director for Asia and Southwest Pacific, WMO; Mr. K. Kuroiwa, Chief, Tropical Cyclone Programme, WMO; Dr Yuichi Ono, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP, delegates from the Panel Member countries including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Oman, delegates from China, ICAO, RIMES, Bangkok, delegates from India (IMD, Central water Commission, Govt of India and IIT, Delhi). The agenda of the inaugural programme is given in Appendix II. 1.1.5 The inaugural function began with the lighting of the ceremonial lamp by Dr. Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India and other distinguished delegates in the dais. 1.1.6 AVM (Dr) Ajit Tyagi delivered the welcome address and highlighted the objective and expected outcome of the 38th Session of WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones. 1.1.7 Dr Quamar­uz­Zaman Chaudhry, Secretary of PTC, highlighted the Panel activities in his address. He appreciated the contribution of RSMC New Delhi and IIT Delhi for tropical cyclone monitoring, prediction, advisories and storm surge guidance. He suggested forming of a Working Group on Hydrology for addressing the hydrology related issues in the region. 1.1.8 Dr Yuichi Ono representing ESCAP also appreciated the services provided by RSMC New Delhi. He further proposed the strengthening of Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction (WGDRR). 1.1.9 Speaking on behalf of Mr Michel Jarraud, Secretary­General of WMO, Dr Tokiyoshi Toya highlighted the achievements of Tropical Cyclone Programme of WMO and the future plans in his address in the meeting (summaries of the speeches of Dr Chaudhry, Dr Ono and Dr Toya are given in Appendix III). 1 1.1.10 The following two Meteorological Monographs published by Cyclone Warning Division of IMD were released by Dr. Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India and Dr T. Toya of WMO, respectively, (i) A Report on the Super Cyclonic Storm “GONU” during 1­7 June, 2007 (ii) Characteristics of Best Track Parameters of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. 1.1.11 Dr Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, in his address highlighted the need for the optimum observational network for monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. He discussed the scientific understanding of the core structure of the cyclone in this region and the need for aircraft probing of cyclone. Dr Nayak further stressed on the prediction of associated rainfall and coastal inundation due to the storm surge, need for improvement in NWP modeling in these aspects. He informed that though the cyclone warning services of RSMC, New Delhi has improved significantly in recent years with reduction in track and intensity forecast errors, warning services over the north Indian Ocean region needs further improvement. 1.1.12 Shri M. Sashidhar Reddy; Hon’ble Vice Chairman, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India, delivered his speech as chief guest by video conferencing, as he could not be physically present in the inaugural function due to unavoidable circumstances. He congratulated Ministry of Earth Sciences and IMD for organizing the 38th Session of WMO/ESCAP Panel at New Delhi. He placed his concern for research issues, aircraft probing and nowcasting of severe weather events. He requested the delegates to develop the capability for translating forecast to actionable suggestions as required by disaster managers for successful management of risks due to cyclones. 1.1.13 Sri B.K. Bandyopadhyay, Director, Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, New Delhi and DDGM (Services), India Meteorological Department extended vote of thanks to the Guests, delegates and all invitees attending the inaugural function. He conveyed his heartiest thanks to Mr M. Sashidhar Reddy, Hon’ble Vice Chairman, NDMA, Government of India, Dr. Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India and AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, Director General of Meteorology, IMD for sparing their time to grace the occasion. He also thanked all the distinguished delegates and invitees for attending the inaugural function. He thanked the local organizing committee for successfully organizing the programme. 1.2 Election of the Chairman and Vice­chairman 1. 2.1 Dr Ajit Tyagi, (India) and Dr Hrin Nei Thiam (Myanmar) were unanimously elected as Chairperson and Vice­chairperson of the Panel, respectively, to hold their posts until the next session. 1. 2.2 Mr S.H. Kariyawasam (Sri Lanka) was elected as Chairman of the drafting committee. 1.3 Adoption of the agenda The Panel adopted the agenda as given in Appendix IV. 1.4 Working arrangements The Panel decided on its working hours and the arrangements for the session. 2 2. FOLLOW­UP ACTION ON PTC­37 2.1 A detailed review of the follow­up actions taken to the recommendations of the thirty­seventh session was carried out based on the action sheet shown in Appendix V. The progress on the activities is incorporated into the relevant paragraphs below. 2.2 The representative of WMO informed the Panel that the update of the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting will be completed by the middle of 2011 after regional reviews by RSMCs/TCWCs as well as volunteers during March through May. The Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project and the NW Pacific Tropical Cyclones Ensemble Forecast Project are successfully implemented in the Typhoon Committee regions under the initiative of CMA and JMA, respectively. 2.3 PTC Secretariat informed the Panel that only a few proposals were given from the Members in response to the request for Annual Operating Plan (AOP) for the meteorological component. The Secretariat suggested that a further discussion is necessary to formulate the AOP for the meteorological component. 2.4 As regards application of ensemble techniques into the track forecasting, RSMC New Delhi informed the Panel that the multi­model ensemble forecasts which are derived from the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast System (HREF) are available at the RSMC’s website. Currently, a further improvement has been made to the website. Meantime, the Panel was informed by Pakistan that Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) started to provide probabilistic forecast of tropical cyclones for the purpose of disaster management. 2.5 Representative of the India Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi reported on the experiments with river­ocean coupled models, IIT­D model has been modified to take into account one–dimensional river which allows penetration of storm surge inland. Preliminary results show that inland extent of penetration is over­estimated. Reason of over­estimate is that overland flooding as well as interaction with seaward river discharge is not included in model. IIT proposes to continue to improve model with more realistic models and river interaction. 2.6 Concerning the establishment of a linkage between the PTC­WGDPP and the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme of WMO as well as RA­II Working Group on DRR, the session was informed that the first Meeting of RA II Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery (Daegu, 1­3 December 2010) developed the draft implementation plan, which includes the development of the regional guidance on methodology of DRR of responding to climate change and on how to strengthen links between National Meteorological Services and National Disaster Management Offices. 2.7 The Panel was informed by the Chair of WGDPP that the second meeting of the Working Group was successfully held in Bangkok, Thailand from 18 to 20 in August 2010 with the support of ESCAP. 3. REVIEW OF THE 2010 CYCLONE SEASON (Agenda item 6) 3.1 Report of RSMC – Tropical Cyclones New Delhi 3.1.1 The RSMC New Delhi presented a detailed review of the 2010 cyclone season on the basis of the comprehensive report entitled “Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2010” which was distributed in CD­ROM to the Members during the session. 3 3.1.2 The RSMC New Delhi informed the Panel that the north Indian Ocean witnessed the formation of eight cyclonic disturbances during 2010.