Tampa Bay Express Planning Level Traffic and Revenue (T&R) Study Project Report FPN: 437289-1-22-01 Prepared for: FDOT District 7 February 2017 Tampa Bay Express Planning Level T&R Study Report Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. E-1 E.1 Project Description ........................................................................................................................ E-1 E.2 Assumptions ................................................................................................................................. E-3 E.3 Study Approach ............................................................................................................................. E-5 E.4 Results .......................................................................................................................................... E-8 E.5 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ E-15 Introduction and Project Background ...................................................................................... 1 1.1 Project Description ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Express Lanes Operations Overview ............................................................................................... 3 1.3 Study Approach ................................................................................................................................ 4 1.4 Study Documentation ....................................................................................................................... 6 Data Collection Efforts ............................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Traffic and Speed Data Collection .................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Bluetooth Origin-Destination Data Collection.................................................................................. 11 2.3 Stated Preference Survey .............................................................................................................. 13 Model Development and Calibration ...................................................................................... 16 3.1 Refinement of Regional Model ....................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Sub-Area Model Development and Refinement ............................................................................. 20 Phase 1 Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Results ................................................................ 28 4.1 Project Scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 28 4.2 Methodology and Assumptions ....................................................................................................... 30 4.3 Comparative Summary of Phase 1 Forecasts by Scenario ............................................................ 33 Phase 2 Refined P50 Traffic and Revenue Results ............................................................... 35 5.1 Project Scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 35 5.2 Methodology and Assumptions ....................................................................................................... 36 5.3 Subarea Modifications – Queue Accumulator ................................................................................. 38 5.4 Overview of Analytical Results – Full Project – Scenario 1............................................................. 39 5.5 P50 Annual Traffic and Revenue Estimates ................................................................................... 45 5.6 Phase 1 and Phase 2 Annual Revenue Comparisons .................................................................... 46 5.7 I-4 East Extension Traffic and Revenue Impacts ............................................................................ 47 - i - Tampa Bay Express Planning Level T&R Study Report Phase 2 P75 Traffic and Revenue Estimates ......................................................................... 48 6.1 Sensitivity Tests.............................................................................................................................. 48 6.2 Risk Analysis Model and P75 Results ............................................................................................ 49 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 54 Disclaimer…… ........................................................................................................................................... 58 Appendix A – Existing Data Master, Count Locations Master and Field Data Collection Tracking List Appendix B – Detailed Phase I Traffic and Revenue Results Appendix C – Detailed Phase 2 P50 Traffic and Revenue Results Appendix D – Detailed Phase 2 P75 Traffic and Revenue Results List of Figures Figure ES-1: TBX Project Configuration .................................................................................................... E-3 Figure ES-2: Estimated Average Toll Per Trip by Weekday Period ........................................................... E-9 Figure ES-3: Peak Weekday Traffic in Express Lanes in 2025 – P50 for Scenario 1 .............................. E-10 Figure ES-4: Year 2025 Express Lanes Annual Transactions and Revenue by Time Period – P50 for Scenario 1 ........................................................................................................................... E-12 Figure 1-1: TBX Project Sections................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2-1: Field Collected Traffic Count Locations ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 2-2: Field Collected Speed Routes ..................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2-3: Bluetooth O-D Data Collection Sensor Locations ...................................................................... 12 Figure 2-4: Sample Screenshot – Survey Screening Question .................................................................... 14 Figure 2-5: Sample Screenshot – SP Survey Toll versus Time Savings Trade-off Question ....................... 14 Figure 3-1: Calibration of Trip Length Distributions of Home-Based Work (HBW) in Peak Periods ............. 18 Figure 3-2: Sub-Area Model Boundaries ..................................................................................................... 21 Figure 3-3: Bluetooth Sensor Placement and Super Zones ......................................................................... 24 Figure 4-1: TBX Phase 1 Toll Gantries and Project Sections ...................................................................... 29 Figure 5-1: TBX Sections and Toll Gantry Locations ................................................................................... 40 Figure 5-2: Estimated Average Toll Per Directional Trip by Weekday Period .............................................. 41 - ii - Tampa Bay Express Planning Level T&R Study Report Figure 5-3: Peak Weekday Traffic in Express Lanes in 2025 – P50 for Scenario 1 ..................................... 42 Figure 5-4: Estimated Express Lanes 2025 Annual Distribution of Transactions and Revenue .................. 44 Figure 6-1: Cumulative Probability Distribution of Revenue in 2025 (in 2016 dollars) ................................. 51 Figure 6-2: Cumulative Probability Distribution of Revenue in 2040 (in 2016 dollars) ................................. 51 List of Tables Table ES-1: TBX Project Sections and Limits ............................................................................................ E-2 Table ES-2: Toll Diversion Post-Model Adjustment Factors ...................................................................... E-5 Table ES-3: TBX Project Scenarios ........................................................................................................... E-8 Table ES-4: Weekday Peak Hour Toll Rates to/from Downtown (P50 for Scenario 1) .............................. E-9 Table ES-5: Average Weekday General Purpose (GP) and Express Lanes (EL) Traffic - P50 for Scenario 1 ............................................................................................................................ E-11 Table ES-6: Estimated Weekday Traffic and Revenue – P50 for Scenario 1 .......................................... E-12 Table ES-7: Annual P75 Transactions and Revenue - Scenarios 1 and 2 ............................................... E-14 Table ES-8: Annual P75 Transactions and Revenue - Scenarios 3 and 4 ............................................... E-14 Table 1-1: TBX Project Sections and Limits .................................................................................................. 2 Table 1-2: TBX Project Scenarios ................................................................................................................. 5 Table 2-1: I-275 Field