Salience, credibility and legitimacy in land use change modeling: model validation as product or process? in land use change modeling: model validation Salience, credibility and legitimacy Salience, credibility and legitimacy in land use change modeling: model validation as product or process? Betha Lusiana Betha Lusiana Universität Hohenheim World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) FACULTY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES Institute of Plant Production and Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics University of Hohenheim Field: Plant Production in the Tropics and Subtropics Prof. Dr. Georg Cadisch Salience, credibility and legitimacy in land use change modeling: model validation as product or process? Dissertation Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree “Doktor der Agrarwissenschaften” (Dr.sc.agr. / Ph.D. in Agricultural Sciences) to the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences presented by: Betha Lusiana born in Bogor, Indonesia Stuttgart-Hohenheim, June 2014 WORLD AGROFORESTRY CENTRE (ICRAF) Citation Lusiana B. 2015. Salience, credibility and legitimacy in land use change modeling: model validation as product or process? Bogor, Indonesia. World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) Southeast Asia Regional Program and University of Hohenheim. 156p. ISBN 978-979-3198-76-7 Disclaimer and copyright The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) holds the copyright to its publications and web pages but encourages duplication, without alteration, of these materials for non- commercial purposes. Proper citation is required in all instances. Information owned by others that requires permission is marked as such. 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CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sindang Barang, Bogor 16115 [PO Box 161 Bogor 16001] Indonesia Tel: +(62) 251 8625415 Fax: +(62) 251 8625416 Email: [email protected] www.worldagroforestry.org/regions/southeast_asia Design and layout Sadewa Cover artwork Beria Leimona 2015 This thesis was accepted as doctoral dissertation in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree “Doktor der Agrarwissenschaften” (Dr.sc.agr. / Ph.D. in Agricultural Sciences) by the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences at the University of Hohenheim on: April 2, 2014 Date of oral examination: June 18, 2014 Examination committee Supervisor and Reviewer Prof. Dr. Georg Cadisch Co-Reviewer Prof. Dr. Thomas Berger Additional Examiner Prof. Dr. Hans-Peter Piepho Vice-Dean and Head of Committtee Prof. Dr. Thilo Streck Co-supervisor Dr. Meine van Noordwijk, World Agroforestry Centre The endless cycle of idea and action, endless invention, endless experiment, brings knowledge of motion, but not of stillness; knowledge of speech, but not of silence; knowledge of words, and ignorance of the Word. ... where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? where is the knowledge we have lost in the information? (The Rock, TS. Elliot) dedicated to: Nana Supriana, for introducing the fun of being curious Ruspita, for demonstrating with ease perseverance and compromise Yusef, for teaching me the meaning of patience and love Acknowledgements The completion of my dissertation has been a long journey and full of exciting adventures and profound learning. Nevertheless, I am elated that it finally comes to an end. What made this PhD possible were the numerous mentors I gained as I travelled through the PhD journey. Mentors come in all shapes and sizes, from supervisors and colleagues, to friends and family to strangers I met on my travels from Bogor to Stuttgart. First, I would like to thank my supervisors: Prof. Georg Cadisch at Institute 380a, Hohenheim and Dr. Meine van Noordwijk at ICRAF, Bogor for their supervision, mentorship and friendship. I am very grateful for having the perfect combination in supervision. Pak Meine, you showed me that scientific ideas have no boundary. Thank you for encouraging me to run, walk and (often) crawl in exciting research pathways. Georg, you helped me to be practical, pragmatic and to carefully and realistically choose what is doable. Thank you for always ensuring that I toe the correct line towards Phd-submission. I immensely appreciated both of you for your unbounded support and faith in me and for your unfailing advice, encouragement and patience. I also extend my gratitude to the staffs at Soil Science Department, Brawijaya University, Indonesia for their warmth and generosity during my field work in Kali Konto, in particular, to Prof. Kurniatun Hairiah (Cho), Iva and Nina. Dr. Thomas Hilger and Dr. Carsten Marohn helped me started in Stuttgart and got me through the administration maze. Gabriele Kircher provided efficient support for the project administration in Germany. I very much appreciated your professional and friendly help. I would also like to thank Dr. Gerd Dercon. Although I never had the honour of working together, Gerd’s infectious enthusiasm while discussing research opportunity in Aceh had rekindled my dream to pursue PhD. With the encouragement and help of Dr. Sonya Dewi, I developed my first PhD proposal. I did not succeed in getting the scholarship, but the experience had revived my old and almost buried dream. Thank you to both of you! Mbak Sonya, with her unsurpassed knowledge of quantitative analysis, continued on providing me with ideas and practical advice during my PhD study. Together with Lei and Atiek, the three of you had generously shared not only your professional knowledge, but also ‘entertaining’ knowledge that had made the PhD journey less lonely. A special ‘thank you’ to my modelling comrade, Desi Suyamto, for his patience in teaching me PC- Raster and introducing me to the amazing world of FALLOW and even more amazing world of ‘Desi-cion Making’. To the Phd students (most are ex-students by now) in Hohenheim, Petra, Juan Cobo, Juan Laso, Mingrelia, Juni, Irene, Scott, Thanh, Melvin, thank you very much for making Hohenheim my second home. I already missed very much the Garbe fest. Thank you also to Bruno, who introduced me to German culinary and landscape and to Simone, i who generously provided me with a transit shelter in between my Bogor-Hohenheim trips. And of course, thank you to my Indonesian family in Hohenheim, the ‘trio bebek’ Ratna, Iin and Dilla. I enjoyed our bizarre meetings and outings that had made Hohenheim much more sunny and warm. To Iwan & Wiwiek, Wahyu & Radix and Irene, thank you for sharing your flat! I extend a very special thank you to Melvin who translated the summary of my dissertation to German. I definitely would not be able to submit without your help! Deep appreciation to Lei, who kindly and creatively draw a picture for the cover of my dissertation. And to Tikah and Sadewa for working on the overall layout of the printed dissertation. I acknowledged the contributions of my friend and colleagues at ICRAF. Thank you to Diah and Vony for the friendly and efficient support in project administration. Thoha and Andree gave me a crash course on GIS and RS and shared their tricks and tips in person and through ym-chat. Degi, Avni, Mbak Yayuk and Ni’ma provided immense support in crunching carbon data. Novi tirelessly helped me during the field work in Kali Konto. I very much appreciated your help and support! To many cheerleaders at ICRAF, including the alumni of ICRAF: Tikah, Neno, Josephine, QQ, Ija, Pak Laxman and many others I may have missed out to mention, you have all contributed in many ways during my study. I am dedicating my work to my father who introduced the word ‘Dr’, as an ambition and dream worth striving for. Above all, my deepest gratitude is due to the two people who had been instrumental for the success of my study. To my strong, spirited mother for her unconditional logistical and emotional support that made me confident I can reach the stars, if I want to. And to my generous and kind husband, Yusef, for his quiet encouragement and his infectious calmness that can ‘tame’ any coming storms. Finally, I am grateful to the lovely, courageous and patient Angga, Puspa and Bagja for their never-ending caring and cheering. Last but not least, I would also like to acknowledge the support from BMZ, Germany for my PhD scholarship. The scholarship allowed me to pursue my research interest in enhancing acceptance and use of simulation model for natural resource management. Any errors or inadequacies that may remain in this work is entirely my own. ii Table of contents Acknowledgements ...............................................................................................i List of abbreviations ..........................................................................................viii 1 General Introduction .....................................................................................2 1.1 Foreword .............................................................................................2 1.2 Natural resource management: Challenges to date ..................................2 1.3 Modelling approaches for natural resource management ..........................3 1.4 Challenges