Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report Monitoring & Early Warning in Tajikistan MONTHLY REPORT MAY 2012 1 Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Report – May 2012 GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS Mudflows and floods can be expected through the month and may cause severe damage, particularly after periods of heavy rainfall. Local and national warning systems should be monitored closely. WEATHER Average precipitation but above average temperatures are forecasted for May for most of Tajikistan. ENERGY SECURITY Tajikistan has shifted to the “Vegetation” (spring-summer) electricity generation period, when water supplies are adequate for maximum electricity generation. Natural gas supplies have resumed from Uzbekistan. Coal production is increasing. FOOD SECURITY While wheat flour prices in Khujand continue to drop similar levels of price reductions have not been noted in Kurgan-Tube or Dushanbe, and it is unclear why this is the case. Fuel prices have not changed significantly. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES Reported migration rates for the first four months of 2012 are significantly above 2011 levels. In April 314,783 persons left Tajikistan and 144,364 persons returned. Reported remittances are 22% above April 2011. ECONOMY GDP increased from January to March by 7.2% and totaled 5,577.7 million Tajik Somoni (117,2 million USD). In January – March 2012, the foreign trade turnover equaled 1,245.5 million USD, with a negative trade balance of 589.1 million USD. Consumer price inflation in March 2012 increased 1.2% compared to December, 2011. For February 2012, the value of the Government budget was 1,262.7 million Tajik Somoni (265 million USD) or 37.9% of GDP. Government budget expenses for February 2012 totaled 1,195.2 million Tajik Somoni (251 million USD). Bank credits as of 1 April 2012 totaled 4.3 billion Tajik Somoni (930 million USD). 2 Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Report – May 2012 Contents 1. HAZARDOUS EVENTS ............................................................................................................... 4 1.1. Possible Events in May 2012 ............................................................................................... 4 1.2. Hazard Events in April 2012 ................................................................................................ 4 2. Weather Conditions ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Forecast for May 2012 ............................................................................................................. 5 2.2. Weather Summary for April 2012 ........................................................................................ 5 3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1. Electricity Production .......................................................................................................... 6 3.2. Electricity Consumption ....................................................................................................... 6 3.3. Natural Gas .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.4. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 7 3.5. Reservoir Levels .................................................................................................................. 7 4. FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................................... 9 4.1. Food Security Reports ......................................................................................................... 9 4.2. Cereal Prices ....................................................................................................................... 9 4.3. Fuel Prices ......................................................................................................................... 10 5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 11 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 11 6.1. Delayed Rail Freight Deliveries to Tajikistan ..................................................................... 11 6.2. General Trends .................................................................................................................. 11 6.3. Population Movement/Migration ........................................................................................ 12 6.4. Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 6.5. Exchange Rate .................................................................................................................. 13 6.6. Remittances ....................................................................................................................... 14 7. ANNEX A- Weather Forecast for May – 2012 ........................................................................... 15 8. Annexes B Total Electricity Production in Tajikistan (Nov. 2009 to April 2012) and Annexes C Daily Average Electricity Consumption in Tajikistan (April 2010 to 2012) ......................................... 16 3 Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Report – May 2012 1. HAZARDOUS EVENTS 1.1. Possible Events in May 2012 The Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC), Committee of Emergency Situations (CoES) reports that disasters caused by heavy rains, mudflows, floods, landslides, rockfalls, strong wind and hail normally occur in May. The risk of mudflows and floods are: High for the Vakhsh, Kafirnigan (DRD), Varzob (DRD), Shirkent, Karatag (DRD), Yakhsu (Kulyab), Kizilsu (Temurmalik) and Toirsu (Baljuvan) rivers. Average for the Pyanj River (middle and lower reaches), Gund (GBAO), Zarafshan (Sughd), Sirdarya (Sughd) and Isfarinka (Sughd) rivers. The level of risk increases following heavy rains when temperatures are high. Unusually high temperatures can also lead to rapid snow melt in the mountains. 1.2. Hazard Events in April 2012 IMAC/CoES reported 71 hazard events in April 2012, including three significant earthquakes, five avalanches, five periods of heavy snowfalls, four heavy rainfall events, 27 mudflows, 10 landslides, one strong wind event, four floods and 17 events of rain with snow, rain with floods, rain with mudflow, rain with hail, etc. For the latest and more detailed information see online data on disaster overview for April, 2012 prepared by UNDP DRMP and CoES at http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster- management/disaster-situation-reports. 4 Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report 2. Weather Conditions 2.1. Forecast for May 20121 The Tajik Hydrometeorology Center forecasts average temperatures in May Average Expected Precipitation–May 2012 will be: Region Average 1-3°C above long term averages in Khatlon Lower elevations 12 - 72 mm Khatlon Province; Province Foothills 98 - 135 mm 1-2°C above long term averages in Sughd Lower elevations 17 - 40 mm Sughd Province, at higher elevations Province Higher elevations 45 - 74 mm of Direct Rule Districts (DRD) and in Lower elevations 54 – 73 mm DRD Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Higher elevations 59 - 139 mm Oblast (GBAO). Precipitation is West 28 - 53 mm GBAO expected to be below the long term East 12 - 21 mm averages countrywide. See Annex A for a more detailed forecast for May 2012. 2.2. Weather Summary for April 2012 Monthly average temperatures were 1 to 3°C above long term averages during April, except eastern GBAO, where temperatures were 1°C below tong term averages. At lower elevations and in the foothills, average temperatures were 13 to 20°C, at higher elevations were 6 to 13°C, and in eastern GBAO temperatures were -3 to 1°C. Monthly average precipitation was within long term averages in April, except GBAO where the monthly average precipitation was below long term averages. From April 22nd to 25th, a southern Caspian Sea cyclone over Tajikistan caused intensive precipitation country- wide. Precipitation on April 22nd included Pyanj district - 50 mm overnight Farkhor district - 48 mm in 24 hrs Hissar district - 19mm overnight Penjikent district – 11 mm in 3 hrs On April 23rd, 3 hours of precipitation in Dushanbe totaled 31 mm, and 23 mm of rain fell in Muminabad and 28 mm of rain fell in Yavan districts in 6 hours. Intensive precipitation occurred from April 28th to 29th, with the following 24 hours totals: Yavan district - 54 mm, Muminabad district - 43 mm, with 39 mm failing in 3 hours on 29 April, Hissar – 34 mm, Dushanbe – 59 mm. Precipitation above 30 mm per 24 hours can lead to flooding and mudflows. 1 The information in Sections 2.1 and 2.2 and Annex A is based on reports from the State Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan. 5 Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Report – May 2012 3. ENERGY 3.1. Electricity Production2 3 Barki Tojik reported that total electricity generation in April was 1,279 million kilowatt- hours (kWh), or 42.6 million kWh per day. Electricity production in April increased 2% (40.4 million kWh) compared to March 2012 (see Annex B). Electricity production in April 2012 was 7 million kWh more than in April 2011. From