Technical Data Report Hydrocarbon Mass Balance Estimates: Inputs for Spill Response Planning ENBRIDGE NORTHERN GATEWAY PROJECT Hay and Company Consultants Vancouver, British Columbia James Stronach, Ph.D., P.Eng. 2011 Hydrocarbon Mass Balance Estimates: Inputs for Spill Response Planning Technical Data Report Preface Preface This technical data report describes modelling that predicts the behaviour of spilled hydrocarbons in a marine environment. The mass balance estimates (from which are derived estimated pathways of spilled hydrocarbon) were used in the Application, Volume 7C and Volume 8C, but without a detailed description of the modelling, which is contained in this technical data report. 2011 Page i Hydrocarbon Mass Balance Estimates: Inputs for Spill Response Planning Technical Data Report Table of Contents Table of Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1-1 2 Description and Application of Numerical Models..................................................... 2-1 2.1 Hydrodynamic Model...................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Regional Model .......................................................................................................... 2-8 2.1.2 Local Model ............................................................................................................. 2-11 2.1.3 Kinematic Wind Model ............................................................................................ 2-13 2.2 Oil Spill Model .............................................................................................................. 2-17 2.2.1 Input and Forcing Data ............................................................................................. 2-18 2.2.2 Hydrocarbon Weathering Model .............................................................................. 2-19 3 Model Validation ............................................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Hydrodynamic Model...................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Validation of the Regional Model .............................................................................. 3-1 3.1.2 Validation of the Local Model ................................................................................... 3-6 3.1.3 Validation against ASL Observations in 2005 ......................................................... 3-10 3.1.4 Validation of Kinematic Wind Model ...................................................................... 3-25 3.2 Oil Spill Model .............................................................................................................. 3-25 3.2.1 Spill Examples ......................................................................................................... 3-25 4 Model Results ................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Hydrodynamic Model...................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 River Inflow Effects ................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.2 Wind and Tidal Effects .............................................................................................. 4-5 4.2 Oil Spill Model .............................................................................................................. 4-11 4.2.1 Kitimat Terminal ...................................................................................................... 4-11 4.2.2 Emilia Island ............................................................................................................ 4-16 4.2.3 Principe Channel ...................................................................................................... 4-18 4.2.4 Wright Sound ........................................................................................................... 4-21 4.2.5 Ness Rock in Caamaño Sound ................................................................................. 4-23 4.2.6 Butterworth Rocks in North Hecate Strait ................................................................ 4-26 5 Summary and Recommendations ................................................................................. 5-1 6 References ....................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Personal Communications ............................................................................................... 6-3 6.3 Internet Sites .................................................................................................................... 6-3 Appendix A Models – Additional Technical Information ............................................ A-1 Appendix B Surface Currents and Salinities at the Head of Kitimat Arm .................B-1 Appendix C Specific Trajectory Examples .................................................................... C-1 2011 Page iii Hydrocarbon Mass Balance Estimates: Inputs for Spill Response Planning Technical Data Report Table of Contents List of Tables Table 2-1 Shore Types and Oil Retention .......................................................................... 2-18 Table 3-1 Comparison of Harmonic Constants for Observed and Modelled Water Levels: M2 ............................................................................................................ 3-1 Table 3-2 Comparison of Observed and Modelled Harmonic Constants: M2 ..................... 3-6 Table 4-1 Condensate Mass Balance at Kitimat Terminal ................................................. 4-12 Table 4-2 Diluted Bitumen Mass Balance for Kitimat Terminal ....................................... 4-14 Table 4-3 Syncrude Synthetic Light Oil Mass Balance for Emilia Island ......................... 4-17 Table 4-4 Diluted Bitumen Mass Balance for Principe Channel ....................................... 4-20 Table 4-5 Diluted Bitumen Mass Balance for Wright Sound ............................................ 4-22 Table 4-6 Diluted Bitumen Mass Balance for Ness Rock .................................................. 4-25 Table 4-7 Syncrude Synthetic Light Oil Mass Balance for Butterworth Rocks ................ 4-27 List of Figures Figure 1-1 Hypothetical Mass Balance Plot − Example Locations ....................................... 1-2 Figure 2-1 Model Process Flowchart ..................................................................................... 2-1 Figure 2-2 Bathymetry: 3-km Grid Model ............................................................................ 2-3 Figure 2-3 Bathymetry: 400-m Grid Model .......................................................................... 2-4 Figure 2-4 Typical Model Grid Mesh .................................................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-5 Wind Observation Sites, 2004: 3-km Grid Model ............................................... 2-9 Figure 2-6 Freshwater Inflow Sites: 3-km Grid Model ....................................................... 2-10 Figure 2-7 River Inflow Locations: 400-m Grid Model ...................................................... 2-12 Figure 2-8 H3D Hydrodynamic Model: Interpolated Wind Field ....................................... 2-14 Figure 2-9 Kinematic Wind Model: Initial Interpolation Flow Field .................................. 2-15 Figure 2-10 Kinematic Wind Model: Volume-Conserving Flow Field ................................ 2-16 Figure 3-1 M2 Co-Amplitude, Co-Phase: 3-km Grid Model ................................................. 3-2 Figure 3-2 Simulated Sea Surface Temperature, 3-km Grid Model ...................................... 3-4 Figure 3-3 Simulated Sea Surface Temperature .................................................................... 3-5 Figure 3-4 3-km Model Current Validation ........................................................................... 3-7 Figure 3-5 3-km Model Drifter Validation ............................................................................ 3-8 Figure 3-6 M2 Co-Amplitude, Co-Phase: 400-m Grid Model ............................................... 3-9 Figure 3-7 Current Meter Locations .................................................................................... 3-11 Figure 3-8 CTD and Model Temperature and Salinity ........................................................ 3-12 Figure 3-9 400-m Model Current Validation: CM1, September to October 2005 .............. 3-14 Figure 3-10 400-m Model Current Validation: CM1, October to November 2005 .............. 3-15 Figure 3-11 400-m Model Current Validation: CM2, September to October 2005 .............. 3-16 Figure 3-12 400-m Model Current Validation: CM2, October to November 2005 .............. 3-17 Page iv 2011 Hydrocarbon Mass Balance Estimates: Inputs for Spill Response Planning Technical Data Report Table of Contents Figure 3-13 400-m Model Current Validation: CM4, September to October 2005 .............. 3-18 Figure 3-14 400-m Model Current Validation: CM4, October to November 2005 .............. 3-19 Figure 3-15 Harmonic Analysis for Validation: Current Meter Site 1 .................................