Too Much Pollution State and National Trends in Global Warming Emissions from 1990 to 2007 Too Much Pollution State and National Trends in Global Warming Emissions from 1990 to 2007 Environment America Research and Policy Center Tony Dutzik and Elizabeth Ridlington Frontier Group Emily Figdor Environment America Research & Policy Center Fall 2009 Acknowledgments Environment America Research & Policy Center thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Allison Reilly-Guerette, Climate & Energy Policy Analyst, Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), and Sandra Sattler, Energy Modeler, Union of Concerned Scientists. The authors would also like to thank Siena Kaplan for her editorial assistance. This report is made possible with funding from the Energy Foundation and New York Community Trust. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or those who provided editorial review. Any factual errors are strictly the responsibility of the authors. © 2009 Environment America Research & Policy Center Environment America Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization. We are dedi- cated to protecting America’s air, water and open spaces. We investigate problems, craft solutions, educate the public and decision makers, and help Americans make their voices heard in local, state and national debates over the quality of our environment and our lives. For more information about Environment America Research & Policy Center or for additional copies of this report, please visit www.environmentamerica.org. Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner, healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate information and compelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and federal levels. For more information about Frontier Group, please visit www.frontiergroup.org. Cover photo: S.P. Rayner, iStockphoto.com Layout: Harriet Eckstein Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction 6 The Big Picture: Nationwide Emission Trends 8 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Increased in 2007 8 Emissions Declined in 2008 and Will Likely Fall Further in 2009 14 Emission Trends in the States 16 Overview of Carbon Dioxide Pollution by State and Region 16 Assessing the Trends 21 Cleaner Fuels and Lower Emissions in the Northeast 21 Recent Emission Declines: The Impact of Clean Power Choices 23 Emissions from Transportation: Oregon and Washington Blaze a New Trail 25 Energy Efficiency and Low Carbon Emissions Go Hand in Hand 26 Continuing Challenges: Breaking Dependence on Coal 27 Looking Forward: What the United States Must Do to Reduce Fossil Fuel Use 29 Actions by the States, Congress and the Obama Administration Will Change Energy Use 29 Policy Recommendations 32 Conclusion 34 Methodology 35 Appendix A. Fossil Fuel Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions from All Sources, 1990, 2004 and 2007, by State 38 Appendix B. Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions by State 40 Appendix C. Detailed State Emission Data by Sector 42 Appendix D: Detailed State Emissions by Fuel 50 Appendix E: Sector Definitions 55 Notes 56 Text Boxes Carbon Dioxide and Other Global Warming Pollutants 10 U.S. Emissions in a Global Context 11 Regional Definitions 17 Assigning Emissions Across State Lines 20 Tables Table ES-1. Top 10 States for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2 Table 1. Top 10 States for Total Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 17 Table 2. Top 10 States for Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 19 Table 3. Bottom 10 States for Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 20 Table 4. States with the Lowest 2007 Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Have Strong Efficiency Programs 26 Table 5. Top 10 States for Biggest Percentage Increase in Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2004 to 2007 27 Table 6. States with the Highest 2007 Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rely on Coal to Generate Electricity 27 Figures Figure ES-1. Carbon Dioxide Pollution Per Capita from Fossil Fuels, 2007 3 Figure ES-2. Change in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2004 to 2007 4 Figure 1. U.S. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990 to 2007 9 Figure 2. Sources of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption, 2007 9 Figure 3. U.S. Global Warming Emissions by Pollutant 10 Figure 4. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, Countries with Highest Total Emissions 11 Figure 5. Electricity Generation from Dirty Fuels Increased from 1990 to 2007 12 Figure 6. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Transportation, by Fuel, 1990 to 2007 13 Figure 7. Emission Intensities, Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Per Unit of Gross Domestic Product 14 Figure 8. Share of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Pollution by Region, 1990 and 2007 18 Figure 9. Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Pollution by Region, 1990 and 2007 19 Figure 10. Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 2007 21 Figure 11. Increase in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 1990 to 2007 22 Figure 12. Change in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 2004 to 2007 23 Figure 13. Texas Electricity Generation Mix 24 Figure 14. U.S. Wind Power Generation 30 Figure 15. Projected Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions 31 Executive Summary merica’s reliance on fossil fuels—oil, • Emissions of carbon dioxide, the lead- coal and natural gas—for energy ing global warming pollutant, from Acreates a host of problems, including fossil fuel consumption increased by air and water pollution, global warming 19 percent in the United States from pollution, high and unpredictable bills for 1990 to 2007. Nationally, the rate of consumers and businesses, and the need to emissions growth has slowed in recent import oil from unstable parts of the world. years, and emissions peaked in many Moving to clean energy—such as solar states in 2004 and 2005. and wind power, more efficient homes, and plug-in cars—will cut pollution, help • Seventeen states saw declines in car- rebuild our economy, and reduce America’s bon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel dependence on oil. use between 2004 and 2007. For decades, America’s use of fossil fu- els—and the global warming pollution that Those emission reductions—while far results—has been on the rise nationally and short of what will be needed to address the in states across the country. But this trend threat of global warming—could be a sign is starting to change in some states—in of a new trend, particularly if the United part because of the move to clean energy. States adopts strong policies to move the Following the lead of those states will start nation toward a clean energy future. to put the United States on a path to lower global warming emissions and help drive States that are highly reliant on the creation of a clean energy economy. coal-fired power plants, have energy- This report analyzes the most recent intensive industries, and/or have high data available from the federal Department levels of pollution from cars and trucks of Energy to calculate emissions of carbon tend to produce the most carbon dioxide dioxide from the use of oil, coal and natural pollution from fossil fuel use. gas at the national and state level from 1990 to 2007. Our analysis finds that: • Texas remained the nation’s number Executive Summary one emitter of carbon dioxide from Table ES-1. Top 10 States for Fossil fossil fuel use in 2007, followed by Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2007 California, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. (See Table ES-1.) Energy-Related CO2 Emissions • Wyoming produced the most carbon State (million metric tons) dioxide pollution per capita, followed by North Dakota, West Virginia, Texas 675 Alaska and Louisiana. Rhode Island California 400 produced the least carbon dioxide per Pennsylvania 277 capita in 2007, followed by New York, Vermont, Idaho and California. Ohio 270 Florida 258 • Electricity generation and transpor- Illinois 244 tation are by far the largest sources Indiana 234 of carbon dioxide emissions in the United States, responsible for 40 New York 201 percent and 33 percent of fossil fuel- Louisiana 195 related emissions, respectively, in Georgia 186 2007. Power plants and transportation were also the fastest-growing sources of emissions between 1990 and 2007. worst impacts of global warming. Nationally, the rate of growth in carbon dioxide pollution has slowed but Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil emissions still remain above the levels fuel use are declining in a growing num- of two decades ago and well above the ber of states as they invest in the clean, levels needed to prevent the worst im- renewable technologies that are part of pacts of global warming. a new energy future. Emissions remain on the rise in other states that have not • Between 2000 and 2007, emissions of eased their reliance on dirty fuels. carbon dioxide from fossil fuel con- sumption increased at one-fifth the • Four Northeastern states—Con- rate they did during the 1990s. necticut, Delaware, Massachusetts and New York—emitted less carbon • Carbon dioxide emissions are estimat- dioxide from fossil fuel consumption ed to have declined by 2.8 percent in in 2007 than they did in 1990. Since 2008 (to their lowest level since 2001) 1997, gross state product in these four and are projected to fall still farther in states increased by 65 percent while 2009, due to high oil prices in 2008, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by the recession, and the declining car- 5 percent. bon intensity of the economy. • Seventeen states and the District of • However, these emission reductions Columbia have seen total emissions are far from the roughly 35 percent decline since 2004, a year of peak cut in global warming emissions the emissions for many states. Maine United States must make by 2020 saw the largest percentage decline in order to do our share to avert the over this period, while New York and 2 Too Much Pollution Figure ES-1.