· CCPS Monograph: Assessment of and planning for natural hazards This monograph addresses the assessment of and planning for natural hazards. It is based on lessons learned by various CCPS member companies. The Center for Chemical Process Safety was established by the American Institute of Chemical Engineers in 1985 to focus on the engineering and management practices to prevent and mitigate major incidents involving the release of hazardous chemicals and hydrocarbons. CCPS is active worldwide through its comprehensive publishing program, annual technical conference, research, and instructional material for undergraduate engineering education. For more information about CCPS, please call (+1) 646-495-1371, e-mail [email protected], or visit www.aiche.org/ccps. Copyright 2019 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Cover photo credits: Upper left: Coffeyville Refinery, Coffeyville, Kansas, 2007 https://agriculture.ks.gov/divisions-programs/dwr/floodplain/resources/historical-flood- signs/lists/historical-flooding/coffeyville Right: FEMA Flood Map https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home Lower: Lake Charles, Louisiana, 2005 Sanders RE. Expect the unexpected when thinking extreme weather. Process Safety Progress 2019; e12082. https://doi.org/10.1002/prs.12082 This third edition was compiled by Cheryl Grounds, CCPS Staff Consultant with input from Andrew Goddard, Arkema and Christopher Devlin, Celanese, peer review by Cathy Pincus, ExxonMobil, Samantha Scruggs, BP, and Tim Murphy, Arkema and oversight by Dr. Anil Gokhale, Director, CCPS Projects. It is made available for use with no legal obligations or assumptions (i.e. Use at your own risk). Corrections, updates, additions, and recommendations should be sent to Dr. Gokhale at [email protected]. It is sincerely hoped that the information presented in this document will lead to an even more impressive record for the entire industry; however, the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, its consultants, CCPS Subcommittee members, their employers, and their employers’ officers and directors disclaim making or giving any warranties, expressed or implied, including with respect to fitness, intended purpose, use or merchantability and/or correctness or accuracy of the content of the information presented in this document. As between (1) American Institute of Chemical Engineers, its consultants, CCPS Subcommittee members, their employers, and their employers’ officers and directors and (2) the user of this document, the user accepts any legal liability or responsibility whatsoever for the consequence of its use or misuse. Assessment of and planning for natural hazards ii AIChE 2019. All rights reserved. Reproduction for non-commercial, educational purposes is encouraged. However, reproduction for any commercial purpose without express written consent of AIChE is strictly prohibited. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 GENERAL 1 2 INTRODUCTION 1 3 IDENTIFY HAZARDS 1 4 GATHER DATA 2 5 IDENTIFY EQUIPMENT TO BE ADDRESSED IN NATURAL HAZARDS ASSESSMENT 2 6 EVALUATE AGAINST DESIGN CRITERIA 3 7 RECOVERY 8 8 RECOMMISSIONING 10 9 REFERENCES 12 APPENDIX A: EXAMPLE SITE SCREENING FOR NATURAL HAZARDS 15 APPENDIX B: EXAMPLE CONTENTS OF A NATURAL HAZARD EMERGENCY RESONSE PLAN 17 APPENDIX C: EXAMPLE LIST OF AUTHORITY AND RESPONSIILITIES FOR NATURAL HAZARD EMERGENCY RESPONSE 26 APPENDIX D: EXAMPLE ACTIVITY LIST FOR BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER THE NATURAL HAZARD EVENT 27 APPENDIX E: EXAMPLE LIST OF INTERDEPENDECIES 29 APPENDIX F: EXAMPLE LIST OF SUPPLIES 30 APPENDIX G: EXPLANATION OF TERMS 34 APPENDIX H: ACRONYMS 41 Assessment of and planning for natural hazards iii AIChE 2019. All rights reserved. Reproduction for non-commercial, educational purposes is encouraged. However, reproduction for any commercial purpose without express written consent of AIChE is strictly prohibited. 1 GENERAL Natural disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey, Superstorm Sandy, and various river flood events have made it clear to the upstream, refining and chemical industries that planning for such natural hazards is very important. The likelihood of such natural disasters occurring seems to be increasing. The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) references a study by Swiss Re, an international insurer, covering the years 1970 to 2016, showing that North America has experienced increasing insured losses from disaster events with the highest losses in 2016. Most of the losses stemmed from hurricanes, hailstorms, thunderstorms, and severe flood events. (CSB 2018) The American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) member companies believe that sharing experiences and learnings is fundamental to reducing risk and improving performance. This monograph addresses the assessment of and planning for natural disasters. It is based on guidance provided by various government, insurance agencies, and CCPS, as well as lessons learned by various CCPS member companies. It is also aligned with the CCPS Risk Based Process Safety approaches of understanding hazards and managing risks. (CCPS 2007) The reader is reminded that this monograph provides guidance and does not set a standard or expectation for performance or actions. Ultimately it is the responsibility of each company and its employees to act on their principles and available information to secure their site and protect their employees, the community, and the environment from harm. Also, where local regulations provide compliance requirements, those regulations should take precedent. This monograph intends to provide basic information, an approach for assessing natural hazards, means to address the hazards, and emergency planning guidance. It applies to both new and existing facilities. 2 INTRODUCTION Natural hazards include all types of naturally occurring events that have the potential for negative impact. These natural phenomena fall into two categories: Meteorological hazards are those that naturally occur due to the weather cycle or climactic cycles, and include flooding, temperature extremes, snow/ice storms, wild fire, tornado, tropical cyclones, hurricanes, storm surge, wind, lightning, hailstorms, drought, etc. Geological hazards are those occurring due to the movements of the earth and the internal earth forces, and include seismic events, earthquakes, landslides, tsunami, volcanic eruptions, and dam rupture. 3 IDENTIFY HAZARDS The first step in preparing for a natural hazard event is to identify the natural hazards that could occur at the facility. The list of meteorological and geological hazards above could be considered as a primary screening list. When deciding if a natural hazard is relevant at a site, codes and standards, regulations, insurance reports, and site experience may be useful. Although a site, or the analyst compiling the list of hazards, may not have experienced a specific type of natural disaster, it is important not to discount its potential. An example site screening for natural hazards document format is provided in Appendix A. Assessment of and planning for natural hazards 1 AIChE 2019. All rights reserved. Reproduction for non-commercial, educational purposes is encouraged. However, reproduction for any commercial purpose without express written consent of AIChE is strictly prohibited. 4 GATHER DATA Once the potential natural hazards relevant to a facility are identified, the next step is to gather data on the natural hazards. Data may also be available from third party, expert natural hazard consultants or from the facility’s insurance carrier. Insurance carriers typically will have developed specific natural event reports. Other data sources may include the following. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps - https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic maps - https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/designmaps/usdesign.php American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) seismic guide - https://hazards.atcouncil.org/#/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tornado prediction - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=allTorn ASCE Tornado Wind Prediction - https://hazards.atcouncil.org/#/ National Hurricane Center (NHC) Storm surge maps - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/ ASCE Wind prediction maps - https://hazards.atcouncil.org/#/ ASCE Snow load - https://hazards.atcouncil.org/#/ NOAA Hurricane center - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ This data may be used in evaluating facility design in relation to natural hazards, assessing risks, and emergency planning. It is important that the data gathered from these sources is specific to each site location. This includes the probability of occurrence and the severity level (e.g. flood zone, water height, wind speed, seismic zone). For example, the facility may be subject to flooding of 1.52 meters (5 feet) at a frequency of 1 in 500 years. In addition to data from the above sources, it may be important to understand the specific site topography, as knowing the high and low spots may inform both increased risks and potential mitigation measures. A potential best practice used by one CCPS member company was to develop drone elevation maps of their site prone to river flooding. With this, they understand exactly what equipment will be impacted at a given river height, a value that is often forecasted days in advance. The data gathered should be maintained along with other important raw data describing the conditions of the site. This site data should be maintained in a format that