BUDGET OUTLOOK PAPER FOR FY2021 Ministry of Finance Development MAY 15, 2020 Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................... II LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................... III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................... IV 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. OVERVIEW OF THE BUDGET PREPARATION PROCESS ............................................................................................... 1 1.2. THE ROLE OF THE BUDGET POLICY COMMITTEE ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3. THE BUDGET CALENDAR ................................................................................................................................... 2 2. PRE COVID-19 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW .............................................................................................. 4 2.1. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1. GDP ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 2.1.2. Inflation and Exchange Rate .................................................................................................................. 4 2.1.3. Trade and Investment ............................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.4. Public Sector Employment ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.2. FISCAL PERFORMANCE ..................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1. Revenue FY2019 .................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2. Expenditure FY2019 ............................................................................................................................. 10 3. GLOBAL IMPACT AND OUTLOOK OF THE COVID-19 AND LOCUST SWARM ................................................. 12 3.1. COVID-19 .................................................................................................................................................. 12 3.1.1. Major trading partners ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.2. LOCUST SWARM ............................................................................................................................................ 15 4. IMPACT AND OUTLOOK OF THE COVID-19 IN SOMALILAND ....................................................................... 15 4.1. FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE ............................................................................................................................... 16 4.2. ECONOMIC IMPACT AND OUTLOOK .................................................................................................................. 17 4.2.1. GDP ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2.2. Inflation ................................................................................................................................................ 18 4.2.3. Exchange Rate ...................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2.4. Trade and Travel .................................................................................................................................. 20 4.2.5. Investment ........................................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.6. Rainfall ................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.3. FISCAL PERFORMANCE, JAN – MAR 2020 ......................................................................................................... 26 4.3.1. Q1 Revenue performance .................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.2. Q1 Expenditure .................................................................................................................................... 28 4.4. REVISED 2020 REVENUE ................................................................................................................................ 30 4.4.1. Potential sources of additional revenues ............................................................................................ 33 5. BUDGET FRAMEWORK FOR 2021 ................................................................................................................ 33 5.1. NDP2 FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................................................... 34 5.2. BUDGET POLICY OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................. 34 6. APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................... 36 APPENDIX 1: TARGET VS ACTUAL REVENUE COLLECTION BY REVENUE ITEM, 2019 .................................................................... 36 APPENDIX 2: TOTAL REVENUE BY RESPONSIBLE AGENCY COMPARED TO FORECAST (SLSH), JAN – MARCH 2020 ............................ 38 APPENDIX 3: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES AT NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND DISTRICT LEVELS ............................................................. 38 APPENDIX 4: NUMBER OF BUSINESS LICENSES ISSUED BETWEEN JAN 2018 - DEC 2019 ........................................................... 39 I List of Tables Table 1: Real GDP, Consumer price growth and COVID-19 cases and deaths in major trading partner countries, 2019 - 2021 .................................................................................................................................................................. IV Table 2: Forecasted 2020 revenue collections by major type, for both scenarios (billions SLSh) ............................... VI Table 3: Annual Headline inflation and average exchange rate since 2012, base year=2012 ...................................... 5 Table 4: Total import value and duty in 2018 and 2019................................................................................................ 6 Table 5: Public sector (civil servants) employment from 2012 to 2020 ........................................................................ 7 Table 6: Domestic revenue and expenditure in current and constant 2012 prices, SLSh (2012 to 2019) .................... 7 Table 7: Fiscal Summary for 2019 and 2018, SLSh ........................................................................................................ 8 Table 8: 2018 and 2019 revenue collection, top five performing items ....................................................................... 9 Table 9: Expenditure summary by Chapter, SLSh ........................................................................................................ 11 Table 10: COVID-19 cases and deaths in major trading partner countries as of June 3rd, 2020 ................................. 14 Table 11: Real GDP and Consumer price growth in select regions of the World, 2019 - 2021 ................................... 14 Table 12: Restrictions on spending lines in the 2020 National Budget ....................................................................... 16 Table 13: YoY and MoM inflation by major category, base year=2012....................................................................... 18 Table 14: Exchange rate and YoY percent change, SLShs per USD (Jan – April 2019 and 2020) ................................. 20 Table 15: Livestock, Skins and Hides exported in the first quarter of 2019 and 2020 ................................................ 21 Table 16: Value and Duty of Somaliland’s imports in the first four months of 2019 and 2020, SLShs ....................... 22 Table 17: Top 10 Import Products by Value in the first four months of 2020, SLSh ................................................... 22 Table 18: Top 10 Import Products in the first four months of 2020 by Duty, in SLSh ................................................. 23 Table 19: Number of Containers and Ships/Vessels that arrived at the Berbera Port in the first four months of 2019 and 2020 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Table 20: Type and number of Ships/Vessels that arrived at the Berbera Port in the first four months of 2019 and 2020 ............................................................................................................................................................................