DEVELOPMENT OF MEXICO NATIONAL EMISSIONS INVENTORY PROJECTIONS FOR 2008, 2012, AND 2030 Final Prepared for: Instituto Nacional de Ecología Mexico City, Mexico National Renewable Energy Laboratory January 9, 2009 ERG Project No: 3667.00.001.001 DEVELOPMENT OF MEXICO NATIONAL EMISSIONS INVENTORY PROJECTIONS FOR 2008, 2012, AND 2030 Final Prepared for: Instituto Nacional de Ecología Mexico City, Mexico National Renewable Energy Laboratory Prepared by: Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG) Sacramento, California January 9, 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 2.0 SCOPE .................................................................................................................................2 3.0 NEW MUNICIPALITY ADJUSTMENTS .........................................................................2 4.0 METHODOLOGY ..............................................................................................................3 4.1 General Projections Methodology............................................................................ 3 4.2 Source Type-Specific Projections Methodology...................................................... 4 4.2.1 Point Source Projections......................................................................................... 5 4.2.2 Area Source Projections.......................................................................................... 8 4.2.3 On-Road Motor Vehicle Projections .................................................................... 14 4.2.4 Nonroad Mobile Source Projections..................................................................... 19 4.3 Projections Summary ............................................................................................. 20 5.0 CONTROL SCENARIOS.................................................................................................20 5.1 Control Scenario 1 – Increased Fuel Economy ...................................................... 20 5.2 Control Scenario 2 – Use of Ethanol in Oxygenated Fuel ..................................... 21 5.3 Control Scenario 3 – Combined Increased Fuel Economy and Use of Ethanol in Oxygenated Fuel..................................................................................................... 21 5.4 Projections Summary with Controls....................................................................... 22 6.0 HARMONIZATION WITH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES........23 7.0 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................24 Tables.............................................................................................................................................27 Figures............................................................................................................................................53 Mexico Projections i Final, January 9, 2009 1.0 INTRODUCTION Future year emission inventory projections are essential to evaluating the future benefits of air quality control measures and supporting various modeling analyses. Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG) was contracted by Western Governors Association (WGA) to develop emissions inventory projections for Mexico’s National Institute of Ecology (INE – Instituto Nacional de Ecología) based upon the 1999 Mexico National Emissions Inventory (MNEI). In addition, the projection inventory process supports the fourth phase of the Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the co- benefits of air quality control measures in Mexico at the national level. The 1999 MNEI, previously developed by ERG, includes emission estimates for point, area, on-road, nonroad, and natural source types, at the municipality-level for the year 1999. Under this current project, ERG projected the 1999 emissions estimates for point, area, on-road, and nonroad sources to the future years of 2008, 2012, and 2030. The projected emission inventory was developed at the municipality-level. Also, ERG analyzed emission impacts in Mexico from three control scenarios developed in consultation with INE. The remainder of this report discusses the results and findings of this study. The remainder of this report is organized as follows: • Section 2.0 – Scope. This section provides a brief outline of the scope of this current project. • Section 3.0 – New Municipality Adjustments. This section describes the adjustments made to the 1999 MNEI to account for 11 new Mexican municipalities that were created since 1999. • Section 4.0 – Methodology. This section describes the methodology used to develop growth factors for point sources, area sources, on-road motor vehicles, and nonroad mobile sources. • Section 5.0 – Control Scenarios. This section presents the control scenarios that were developed and applied to the future year emissions. • Section 6.0 – Harmonization with Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories. This section describes how the projections were harmonized (i.e., standardized, or having Mexico Projections 1 Final, January 9, 2009 increased comparability and/or convergence) with existing greenhouse gas emission inventories in Mexico, as well as with other inventories that are currently under development in Mexico. • Section 7.0 – References. This section presents references for all documents, reports, data, and personal communication used to develop the future year emissions. • Tables. All tables are presented sequentially at the end of the report, rather than in the body of the text. 2.0 SCOPE Since the future year emission inventory projections are based upon the 1999 MNEI, the scope of the future year projections is similar to the MNEI, and includes the following characteristics: • Source types – Point sources, area sources, on-road motor vehicles, and nonroad mobile sources. Natural sources (i.e., biogenic and volcanic sources) are not part of the scope of the future year projections. • Pollutants – Nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 micrometers (µm) or less (PM10), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5), and ammonia (NH3). • Spatial aggregation – Municipality-level for the 2,454 municipalities in Mexico. In the 1999 MNEI, there were 2,443 municipalities. Since 1999, 11 additional municipalities were formed in Mexico, so adjustments were made to include these 11 additional municipalities. • Reported units – Megagrams (Mg) per year (i.e., 1,000 kilograms [kg] or 1 metric ton). • Projected emission results are provided in spreadsheets, U.S. EPA Emissions Inventory Format (NIF) 3.0, and SMOKE/IDA (modeling) files. 3.0 NEW MUNICIPALITY ADJUSTMENTS Prior to projecting the 1999 Mexico National Emissions Inventory (MNEI) forward to 2008, 2012, and 2030, it was necessary to adjust the baseline municipality-level emissions to account for municipality realignments since 1999. The 1999 MNEI contained a total of 2,443 municipalities for the entire country (ERG, 2006). However, the national municipality-level population projections that were provided by the National Council on Population (CONAPO – Mexico Projections 2 Final, January 9, 2009 Consejo Nacional de Población) indicated that there were a total of 2,454 municipalities as of 2005 (CONAPO, 2008). The 11 new municipalities were formed in the states of Guerrero, México, Veracruz, and Zacatecas. Seven new municipalities were formed by the division of an existing municipality; four new municipalities were formed by the reorganization of multiple existing municipalities. Table 1 (at the back of this document) lists the new municipalities and their associated municipality codes. Emissions from the 1999 MNEI older municipalities listed in Table 1 were allocated to the new municipalities. If this allocation had not been performed, then these 11 new municipalities would have zero emissions in the 1999 baseline inventory, as well as the future year projected inventories. The emissions allocation for area sources, on-road motor vehicles, and nonroad mobile sources was based upon the ratio of 2005 population estimates. For example, Iliatenco (Guerrero) was formed from the municipalities of Malinaltepec and San Luis Acatlán. The 2005 populations of these municipalities were as follows: Malinaltepec – 27,231; San Luis Acatlán – 41,917; Iliatenco – 9,762; and three municipality total – 78,910. The calculated ratios were then: Malinaltepec – 0.3451 (i.e., 27,231/78,910); San Luis Acatlán – 0.5312; and Iliatenco – 0.1237. For point source emissions, Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to plot the point source locations to determine if any were located within the municipalities that were split to form new municipalities. It was confirmed that no reallocation of point source emissions was needed because none of the point sources were within the 11 new municipalities. 4.0 METHODOLOGY This section provides the general methodology used for developing future year growth projections (Section 4.1), as well as the source-type specific methodologies (Section 4.2). 4.1 General Projections Methodology At the most basic level, future year projected emissions are estimated by multiplying base year emissions by a projection factor as shown in