Operational Response Overview September 2015 Forward As an organisation the Service faces many challenges. The ever changing environment requires the Service to change in order to ensure it is able to secure an effective and efficient service for the community. Considerable steps forward over the past ten years have been taken making significant savings whilst continuing to maintain a high quality service and reduce the number of calls attended. Over the next three years the Integrated Risk Management Plan clearly states the tasks the Service has to undertake. Year one beginning with a fundamental review of operational response, development of risk based response targets and the development of a demand management service delivery model. To continue the journey the Service needs to fully focus upon reducing risk and thereby bringing down further the number of incidents it attends. The Service needs to ensure it keeps the community safer than ever before even though some tough decisions lie ahead. The Service needs to produce an integrated approach matching resources to risk within our county. In order for it to make recommendations and sound decisions clear and concise information and evidence is required, which is underpinned by a clear method for identifying and quantifying risks in our community. This operational response review will allow the Service to develop a response based on risk. A demand management model will be embedded, integrating both Protection and Prevention initiatives. Contents Page Number 1. Executive Summary 1 2. Introduction 5 3. About Our County 6 4. Our Response Targets 11 5. Data Sources: Where our information comes from 15 6. Our Strategy, People and Resources 17 7. Analysing & Calculating Risk 26 8. Tackling risk 30 9. Proposals 32 10. Appendices: Station Data Sheets 37 1. Executive Summary The Gloucestershire Fire and Rescue Service IRMP 2015-2018 was developed and approved by Gloucestershire County Council Cabinet on 15th April 2015. The Year 1 Objectives were to: Undertake a fundamental review of operational response Develop risk based response targets and the Development of the Demand Management Service Delivery Model. A review of existing response targets has been undertaken with new risk based response ‘targets’ developed and implemented. Local risk management plans have been developed with specifically targeted prevention and protection initiatives implemented which are designed to meet the needs of those most vulnerable in our communities and further drive down demand on GFRS resources. A review of operational response across Gloucestershire has been undertaken in order to ensure GFRS resources meet both risk and demand profiles. This has included: External, independent analysis and verification of our response data (taken from the last five years), with bespoke modelling work undertaken to provide a sound evidence base against which professional judgement can be applied to inform decisions on matching service resources to identified risks. Production of a portfolio which includes a narrative, supporting factual report and individual station profiles Consideration of information and data relating to each station with all options for change being considered; these include station closures, removal of pumping appliances and revisions to crewing/duty systems This report brings together all the information necessary to enable sound decision making. It includes information about the county, its risks, challenges and resources together with an explanation of how GFRS aims to tackle risk. 1 Identifying Risk GFRS has a statutory responsibility to assess the risks to both life and property. Analysis of the incidents attended in the past helps to identify the predominant or most commonly occurring risks. These risks can readily be identified by a review of historical incidents in Gloucestershire. To enable this, analysis has been conducted on the incident data from the previous five years for trends. In addition, to predict the likelihood of future occurrences of these fires we have used data linked to areas of deprivation (called The Index of Multiple Deprivation or IMD). This is a social and economic measure that demonstrates the strongest link to the likely incidence of fire (and consequent injury). Estimating Risk Levels The predominant risks in GFRS have been identified via the review of historic data. To identify how this risk will vary across the county we assess the likelihood of fire and rescue related incidents. This information is used to identify high risk geographic areas, and subsequently inform the prevention, protection and response activities we deploy to reduce this risk. The method used to identify risk is based on the occurrence of dwelling fires and the casualties involved, and fire incidents which occur in non-domestic buildings. This supports the targeting of fire safety prevention and enforcement activities and allows for a more comprehensive assessment of risk in any given area. Once the data inputs have been combined, the total risk score for each geographical area was calculated. Defined parameters were used to decide three risk levels across the county. These have then been used to direct prevention resources and also assign the relevant response target. 2 Evaluation Approach When considering the approach for a particular locality we look at prevention, protection and emergency response and combinations of these appropriate to the risk identified including: Risk levels and how they compare to guidelines on public safety and civil contingency resilience. Value for money - how much benefit may be achieved by delivering a particular strategy and level of resource. The level of overall funding available to GFRS and how best to allocate finite resources to reduce risk in each locality. Resilience considerations and professional judgement. For example, workloads may influence the type of crewing needed at a station. Having estimated the risks, the Service has looked at the required resources to address them. This looked at the benefits of different prevention and protection activity to determine how best to integrate the use of all resources. The focus is to deliver the greatest benefit, whilst at the same time offering value for money and being practical. This required consideration of the impact of each intervention (prevention, protection and response) along with resource levels available and required. The level, type and distribution of prevention, protection and response resources will aim to reduce risk as low as reasonably practicable by utilisation of the resources available to GFRS, as well as those that may be deployed by engaging in partnership with others. The impact of this has then been modelled by an independent company specialising in this area (ORH) to show what, if any impact this will have on our response. Following full consideration, independent analysis of our response data and modelling of all options the following proposals are considered to be the right options for Gloucestershire Fire and Rescue to progress in order to match our resources to the risk profile of the County. 3 Two changes are proposed: Proposal 1 To reduce risk and deliver additional prevention and protection activities in Painswick and the surrounding communities enabling us to provide future emergency response from Stroud and close Painswick Fire Station. Proposal 2 To change the way in which we provide staff at Cirencester Fire Station to deliver prevention, protection and emergency response using the two fire engines currently based at the station. Consultation will take place from 1st October 2015 to 4th January 2016 and a report with the outcome will be produced to help inform the final decision. This will be made by Gloucestershire County Council Cabinet in April 2016. 4 2. Introduction This review is part of Gloucestershire Fire and Rescue Services Integrated Risk Management Plan usually referred to as the IRMP. In plain terms, it is about how the Service will make our County safer, how it reduces the number of emergency incidents attended, how it works within its communities to keep people safe and when incidents occur to mitigate their effect. Throughout the IRMP the Service wants to be able to show that every pound spent brings the most benefit possible and has the greatest impact on tackling risk. GFRS want the communities of Gloucestershire to understand the impact they are making with the resources available, so that they can judge whether or not they are getting the service they need. 5 3. About Our County Gloucestershire covers an area of 1024 square miles (2653 square km). It is an extremely attractive place to live and work with most people living in areas surrounded by countryside. To the West the county is bordered by South Wales, to the North and North West Herefordshire and Worcestershire, Warwickshire to the North East, Oxfordshire to the East, Wiltshire to the South and Avon to the South West. The county is divided into six districts, City of Gloucester, Cheltenham, Forest of Dean, Tewkesbury, Cotswolds and Stroud. 6 The population of Gloucestershire is currently estimated at approximately 611,300 (Source ONS data 2014), half of that population are concentrated in the Gloucester and Cheltenham areas. The remainder are spread over a number of towns, villages and hamlets. Population growth is steady and is predicted to rise by another 11% by 2025. The county is predicted to have a higher than average number of over 65 year olds rising by 55,000 to reach 158,000 by 2025. The county is relatively affluent but does have areas of deprivation in its main conurbations and in some rural locations. Geography, infrastructure and heritage Gloucestershire has a contrasting landscape from the Severn Valley, Forest of Dean, Stroud Valleys area and the Cotswolds. The River Severn is a significant feature of our county and does contribute to a range of challenges for the Service. The communications network in the county contributes a number of major roads across the county including the M5 and M50 motorways, A417/A419 link road between the M4 and M5, A40 and A46 running across the county and the A38 and A48 running either side of the River Severn.