Dealing with uncertainty From agile to antifragile What is uncertainty? „Uncertainty is risk that is immeasurable“ Economist Frank Knight (1885 – 1972) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921) Risk has an unknown outcome, but we know what the underlying outcome distribution looks like. Risk are known unknowns, uncertainty are unknown unknowns. Your unknown unknowns can be known knowns for others. Events of the past are no guarantee for the future. A Black Swan is an event that - comes as a surprise, - has a major effect, - and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960) The Black Swan (2007) Black Swans create disorder - chaos - stress - shocks - volatility - opportunity From fragile to antifragile Fragile Fragile is harmed from volatility. Robust Robust is withstanding volatility. Antifragile Antifragile is gaining from volatility. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960) Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder (2012) Fragile and antifragile exist because of assymetry. Antifragile Fragile So what does this mean for you and your business? How can you adapt to change faster as others? Become Agile How can you detect change faster as others? Question Data Listen to your people Learning How can you expose yourself to positive black swans? Go to parties ... Barbell Strategy How can you avoid exposure to negative black swans? Via Negativa Optionality Lindy Effect How can you gain from disorder? Skin in the game Lemonade Green Lumber Fallacy „Uncertainty is risk that is immeasurable“ Economist Frank Knight (1885 – 1972) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921) www.data-solutions.ch Henrico Dolfing [email protected] +41 79 326 47 63.