BTO Research Report 414 BTO Research Report 414 Climate Change and Climate Change and Migratory Species Migratory Species Authors Authors Robert A. Robinson1, Jennifer A. Learmonth2, Anthony M. Hutson3, Robert A. Robinson1, Jennifer A. Learmonth2, Anthony M. Hutson3, Colin D. Macleod2, Tim H. Sparks4, David I. Leech1, Colin D. Macleod2, Tim H. Sparks4, David I. Leech1, Graham J. Pierce2, Mark M. Rehfisch1 & Humphrey Q.P. Crick1 Graham J. Pierce2, Mark M. Rehfisch1 & Humphrey Q.P. Crick1 A Report for Defra Research Contract CR0302 A Report for Defra Research Contract CR0302 August 2005 August 2005 1 British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, IP24 2PU 1 British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, IP24 2PU 2 Department of Zoology, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ 2 Department of Zoology, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ 3 IUCN - SSC Chiroptera Specialist Group 3 IUCN - SSC Chiroptera Specialist Group 4 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, 4 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, PE28 2LS PE28 2LS British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU Registered Charity No. 216652 Registered Charity No. 216652 CONTENTS CONTENTS Page No. Page No. List of Tables, Figures and Appendices .....................................................................................................7 List of Tables, Figures and Appendices .....................................................................................................7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................9 EXTENDED SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................13 EXTENDED SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................13 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................37 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................37 1.1. Aims and methods ..........................................................................................................38 1.1. Aims and methods ..........................................................................................................38 1.2. Certainty in Climate Change Impacts ..........................................................................39 1.2. Certainty in Climate Change Impacts ..........................................................................39 1.3. Biological Adaptation to Climate Change ....................................................................40 1.3. Biological Adaptation to Climate Change ....................................................................40 1.4. Climate Change and other threats ................................................................................41 1.4. Climate Change and other threats ................................................................................41 2. LEGISLATORY FRAMEWORK ..............................................................................................43 2. LEGISLATORY FRAMEWORK ..............................................................................................43 2.1. Definition of a Migratory Species ..................................................................................43 2.1. Definition of a Migratory Species ..................................................................................43 2.2. Legislative Background ..................................................................................................44 2.2. Legislative Background ..................................................................................................44 2.3. Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species ...............................................44 2.3. Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species ...............................................44 2.3.1. Bats .....................................................................................................................45 2.3.1. Bats .....................................................................................................................45 2.3.2. Marine Mammals ..............................................................................................46 2.3.2. Marine Mammals ..............................................................................................46 2.3.3. Birds ...................................................................................................................47 2.3.3. Birds ...................................................................................................................47 2.3.4. Other Memoranda of Understanding .............................................................48 2.3.4. Other Memoranda of Understanding .............................................................48 2.4. Species-based Instruments .............................................................................................49 2.4. Species-based Instruments .............................................................................................49 2.5. Site-based Instruments ...................................................................................................50 2.5. Site-based Instruments ...................................................................................................50 2.6. National legislation .........................................................................................................51 2.6. National legislation .........................................................................................................51 3. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................55 3. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................55 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................55 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................55 3.2. Global Climate Change Modelling ................................................................................56 3.2. Global Climate Change Modelling ................................................................................56 3.3. UK Climate Change Modelling .....................................................................................57 3.3. UK Climate Change Modelling .....................................................................................57 3.4. Projected Climate Change – Terrestrial Systems ........................................................58 3.4. Projected Climate Change – Terrestrial Systems ........................................................58 3.4.1. Global .................................................................................................................58 3.4.1. Global .................................................................................................................58 3.4.2. Overseas Territories .........................................................................................59 3.4.2. Overseas Territories .........................................................................................59 3.4.3. United Kingdom ................................................................................................60 3.4.3. United Kingdom ................................................................................................60 3.5. Projected Climate Change – Marine Systems ..............................................................60 3.5. Projected Climate Change – Marine Systems ..............................................................60 3.5.1. Temperature ......................................................................................................60 3.5.1. Temperature ......................................................................................................60 3.5.2. Sea Levels ...........................................................................................................61 3.5.2. Sea Levels ...........................................................................................................61 3.5.3. Ocean Circulation .............................................................................................61 3.5.3. Ocean Circulation .............................................................................................61 3.5.4. Sea-ice Extent ....................................................................................................61 3.5.4. Sea-ice Extent ....................................................................................................61 3.5.5. Changes in salinity ............................................................................................62 3.5.5. Changes in salinity ............................................................................................62