Volcano Monitoring on a Regional Scale: Results from the CEOS Disaster Risk Management Volcano Pilot David Arnold1 Susi Ebmeier1 Juliet Biggs1 Mike Poland3 Francisco Delgado2 Simona Zoffoli4 Matt Pritchard2 Eugenio Sansosti55 (1) COMET, University of Bristol, (4) ASI (2) Cornell University (5) IREA-CNR (3) USGS, HVO FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 FRINGE Workshop Participants in the Pilot Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 CEOS partners: ASI, CNES, CSA, DLR, ESA, JAXA, NASA, NOAA, USGS Other partners: University of Bristol (UK), Cornell University (US), University of Iceland, British Geological Survey, Italian National Research Council (IREA –CNR), the Open University (UK), Volcano Observatories (several with confirmed interest in Latin America), VAACs (Buenos Aires and Washington), VDAP, Civil Protection Agencies. Research Consortia: IAVCEI, STREVA (University of Bristol), Global Volcano Model (BGS), WOVO, VHUB, COMET (University of Leeds), ALVO 2 FRINGE Workshop Volcano Pilot Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 WHY? • Hundreds of millions live within 20 km of an active volcano. • Estimated 50 000 lives saved in last century by timely evacuations based on information from volcano monitoring (GAR15 report) 3 FRINGE Workshop Volcano Pilot Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 WHAT IS MISSING? • Relatively few volcanoes are permanently monitored by ground based instruments • Volcano observatories often do not use EO data • Current EO data collection is not coordinated for volcano monitoring • Need systematic observations before, during, and after volcanic events 4 FRINGE Workshop Objectives of the Pilot Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Objective A – Regional Demonstration Objective B – Supporting Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories Objective C – Significant Global Event 5 Pilot Region: Latin America FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Santorini Report aims: 1) global background observations at all Holocene volcanoes 2) weekly observations at restless volcanoes 3) daily observation at erupting volcanoes Pilot Region: Latin America FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Data for target volcanoes have generously been provided by ASI, CSA and DLR FRINGE Workshop Timeline Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Objective A Timeline: 2014: -Begin studies of target volcanoes (first data arrived in August 2014) 2015: -Continue studies of target volcanoes -Begin quarterly monitoring of all Latin American volcanoes 2016: -Continues studies of target volcanoes and regional monitoring -Collect feedback from end users 2017: -Develop broader EO strategy based on lessons learned during pilot 8 Pilot Region: Latin America FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 DataData for for target target volcanoes volcanoes have have generously generously been been provided provided by by ASI, ASI, CSA CSA and and DLR DLR FRINGE Workshop Chiles-Cerro Negro de Mayasquer Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Scientists at the University of Bristol have processed and analysed CosmoSkyMed and TerraSAR-X imagery provided by the CEOS Volcano DRM Pilot. Ebmeier, BristolEbmeier, Ebmeier, BristolEbmeier, TSX, 14th -29th Oct 2014 CSK, 24th May -27th Oct 2014 CEOS data have been regular processing of used to find fault CSK and TSX data geometries and since October 2014 to constrain location of help volcano magmatic intrusion observatories 10:20 – Magellan Room: Susi Ebmeier Reventador, Ecuador FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Arnold, Bristol Arnold, RSAT-2 amplitude image 06/03/12 Topographic change at Reventador Feb 2000 – Sept 2011 • Reventador had its largest historical eruption in 2002 and the eruption is still ongoing • CEOS RADARSAT-2 and TanDEM-X data has shown the extent and thickness of new lava flows between 2011 and 2014 • Data provide insights into morphology and rheology of andesite lava flows Reventador, Ecuador FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Arnold, Bristol Arnold, RSAT-2 amplitude image 10/06/12 Topographic change at Reventador Feb 2000 – Sept 2011 • Reventador had its largest historical eruption in 2002 and the eruption is still ongoing • CEOS RADARSAT-2 and TanDEM-X data has shown the extent and thickness of new lava flows between 2011 and 2014 • Data provide insights into morphology and rheology of andesite lava flows Cotopaxi, Ecuador FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Spatially complex deformation observed in IG-EPN GPS network from 2009-2013 • Processed CEOS Bristol Arnold, RADARSAT-2 data covering the period 2010 to 2014 • No deformation > 0.5 cm yr-1 detected during this time cm FRINGE Workshop Fernandina, Galapagos Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Vertical and East-West Velocity Components at Fernandina Volcano Combined 26 ascending and 34 descending images from March 2012 to June 2013 Radial deformation pattern, max displacement 12 cm Deformation field model at Fernandina Volcano between 2012-2013 [cm] Displacement Sabancaya volcano, Perú FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 • Unrest started in Feb. 2013 • Complex sequence of mainly tectonic earthquakes • Culminated (so far) in small August 2014 eruptions. • Remote sensing (thermal & InSAR) sent to end users: paper accepted Cordon Caulle volcano, Chile FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 • Large Plinian eruption in 2011- 2012 • CEOS RADARSAT-2 and COSMO-SkyMed SAR data has discovered widespread post- eruptive volcano inflation (~20 cm/yr) ongoing as of March 2015. • No increase in seismicity above background. • Met with OVDAS (Observatorio Cornell Delgado, Volcanológico de los Andes del Sur, Chile) in Jan. 2015. Results are helping shape GPS monitoring strategy FRINGE Workshop Conclusions Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 • Initial results of the CEOS volcano pilot show previously unidentified deformation at target volcanoes in Latin America • Currently expanding number of target volcanoes and will shortly begin comprehensive whole scale monitoring with Sentinel-1A and ALOS 2 • Continued communication with end users will help shape future EO strategy for disaster risk management 18 FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 Thank you FRINGE Workshop Frascati, Italy 23-27 March, 2015 We are open to having new members in the pilot who are committed to the goals of the pilot, working with volcano observatories in Latin America Independent of the pilot, we are always looking to work with others to monitor volcanoes in the region via collaborations. .