Northeast and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Photo Credit: Scott Bauer (2007) Authors: Daniel Tobin, The Pennsylvania State University; Maria Janowiak, Northern Forests Sub Hub; David Y. Hollinger, Northeast Hub Lead; R. Howard Skinner, Northeast Hub Co-Director; Christopher Swanston, Northern Forests Sub Hub Lead; Rachel Steele, National Climate Hubs Coordinator, Rama Radhakrishna, The Pennsylvania State University; and Allison Chatrchyan, Cornell University. Northeast Hub Northern Research Station USDA Forest Service 271 Mast Rd Durham, NH 03824 June 2015 Contributors: Our thanks to Darren Hickman, NRCS; Juliet Bochicchio, RD; Wendy Hall, APHIS; Marlene Cole, APHIS; Sharon Hestvik, RMA; Donna Gibson, ARS; Peter Kleinman, ARS; Lynn Knight, NRCS; Leon Kochian, ARS; Lindsey Rustad, FS; Erin Lane, FS; John Niedzielski, FSA; and Paul Hlubik, FSA. We acknowledge ICF International for its contributions to the Greenhouse Gas Profile. We also acknowledge Pennsylvania State University and Cornell University for their support. Edited by: Terry Anderson, ARS. Suggested Citation: Tobin, D., M. Janowiak, D. Hollinger, R.H.Skinner, C. Swanston, R. Steele, R. Radhakrishna, A. Chatrchyan, D. Hickman, J. Bochicchio, W. Hall, M. Cole, S. Hestvik, D. Gibson, P. Kleinman, L. Knight, L. Kochian, L. Rustad, E. Lane, J. Niedzielski, and P. Hlubik, 2015: Northeast and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies, T. Anderson, Eds., United States Department of Agriculture, 65 pp. http://climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Northeast%20Regional%20Hub%20Vulnerability%20 Assessment%20Final.pdf Contents Letter from the Regional Lead ...................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Description of the Region and Key Resources ............................................................................. 6 1.2. Demographics and Land Uses ....................................................................................................... 7 1.3. General Climate Conditions, Extremes, and Past Effects ............................................................. 7 1.4. Summary of Regional Climate Trends and Scenario for the Future ............................................. 7 Temperature .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Precipitation .......................................................................................................................................... 8 Growing Season .................................................................................................................................... 8 Expected Changes ................................................................................................................................. 8 2. General Climate Effects on Agriculture and Forests ............................................................................ 9 Longer Growing Seasons ...................................................................................................................... 9 Shorter, Warmer Winter ........................................................................................................................ 9 More Extreme Precipitation .................................................................................................................. 9 Changes in Soil Moisture and Drought ................................................................................................. 9 Enhanced Fire Risk ............................................................................................................................. 10 Intensified Biological Stressors .......................................................................................................... 10 3. Regional Agriculture’s Sensitivity to Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies ............................. 10 3.1. Cropping Systems ....................................................................................................................... 10 Field Crops .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Tree Fruits ........................................................................................................................................... 13 Vegetables ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Berries and Vine Fruits ....................................................................................................................... 17 Greenhouse, Nursery, Sod, and Specialty Products ............................................................................ 18 Ecosystem Services ............................................................................................................................. 20 3.2. Livestock Systems Overview of Risks, Vulnerabilities, and General Adaptation Strategies ..... 22 Dairy ................................................................................................................................................... 22 Poultry and Eggs ................................................................................................................................. 24 Other Livestock ................................................................................................................................... 25 Aquaculture ......................................................................................................................................... 27 4. Forest Systems Overview of Risks, Vulnerabilities, and General Adaptation Strategies ................... 28 4.1. Factors That Increase Risk to Ecosystems .................................................................................. 28 Low-Diversity Systems ....................................................................................................................... 28 Fragmented Landscapes ...................................................................................................................... 29 Systems That Are Limited to Particular Environments ...................................................................... 29 Systems That Are Less Tolerant of Disturbance ................................................................................. 29 4.2. Tree Species and Ecosystem Shifts ............................................................................................. 29 Reduced Habitat for Northern and Boreal Species ............................................................................. 29 Altered Forest Composition ................................................................................................................ 29 Changes in Forest Productivity ........................................................................................................... 30 4.3. Considerations by Ecoregion ...................................................................................................... 30 New England and Northern New York ............................................................................................... 30 Mid-Atlantic ........................................................................................................................................ 32 Central Appalachia .............................................................................................................................. 33 4.4. Forest Sector Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................................ 33 Principles of Forest Adaptation........................................................................................................... 34 Strategies, Planning, and Implementation ........................................................................................... 34 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 35 5. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile from Agriculture and Forests within the Region and Mitigation Opportunities............................................................................................................................................... 36 5.1. Soil Carbon Stock Changes......................................................................................................... 36 5.2. Nitrous Oxide Emissions ............................................................................................................ 37 5.3. Livestock GHG Profile ............................................................................................................... 38 5.4. Enteric Fermentation ................................................................................................................... 38 5.5. Emissions from Manure Management Systems .......................................................................... 39 5.6. Forest Carbon Stocks and Stock Changes ..................................................................................