14 Conclusion: Where Do We Go from Here? Joseph Gahama and Tukumbi Lumumba-Kasongo. Achievements and Areas Worrisome The situation in the Great Lakes region is still worrisome. By early 2000, hopes were still running high. This was six years after the death of President Juvenal Habyarimana of Rwandan and President Cyprien Ntaryamira of Burundi, and six years after the genocide against the Tutsi (1994) This was followed by Mobutu’s forced departure, the installation of a new regime in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Arusha Agreement that allowed a political transition in Burundi. Indeed, by early 200, peace had been restored everywhere, and the whole region was calm, except in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo where armed groups and les Forces de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR) continued to commit war crimes and human rights violations. Several reconciliation and reconstruction initiatives had been made: in Rwanda, the Gacaca courts had allowed a peaceful coexistence between the perpetrators of genocide and their victims, while in Burundi, the Burundian Armed Forces had successfully merged with the former rebel movements. Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni had managed, since he took power in 1986, to assert himself, inside his country1 and in the region. Kenya and Tanzania had no particular problems regarding security. In short, there was relative progress as far as governance was concerned. Meanwhile, there has been very significant economic progress, due, in part, to the East African Community (EAC), a regional2 organisation which is currently considered by the African Union (AU) as one of the best on the continent, insofar as it had an average growth of 4 per cent per annum and that Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania were, between 2005 and 2009, ranked among the best in the world (IMF, 2011:57). This outstanding performance was a result of deep reforms undertaken since the early 1990s, including the restructuring and privatisation 14-1 Conclusion-.indd 359 28/06/2017 21:15:09 360 Peace, Security and Post-Conflict Reconstruction in the Great Lakes Region of Africa of banks and the launch of programmes to improve the investment climate. This performance had allowed individual states to invest heavily in health and education (Gahama 2015:72). These hard-won achievements seem to be seriously jeopardised by a return to authoritarian rule that the international community is watching, powerless, throughout the region. In this regard, Burundi is a good example of regression. When in 2005, Pierre Nkurunziza, one of the former rebel leaders of the National Council for the Defense3 of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD- FDD) – came to power after long negotiations and under strong international pressure that led to the Peace and National Reconciliation Agreement signed in 2000 in Arusha, no one ever could believe that he would lead the country into an impasse. Already in 2008, there were reports of extrajudicial executions in the National Liberation Forces (FNL), a rival movement that, unlike CNDD-FDD, had refused to lay down their arms. Corruption became rampant in all institutions, from top to bottom. The 2010 municipal elections were rigged mas sively, and this led the opposition to boycott the legislative and presidential elections. A serious crisis – which is still ongoing – then erupted when Pierre Nkurunziza decided to violate the Constitution and the Arusha Agreement which forbade him to run for another term, despite the advice and warnings of the powerful Catholic Church, the civil society, one faction from his own party and the international community, including the United States and the European Union. We will return to this shortly. A failed coup in May 2015 gave the authorities the opportunity to indulge in occasional bloody repressions4 against the opponents and to silence independent media. To restore peace, there must be an inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders in the conflict. But the regime that relies on a handful of ‘generals’ drags its feet and prefers to give the conflict5 an ethnic connotation (Larcher, 2016:2) and to accuse Rwanda and Belgium of being behind the mayhem in Burundi. Insecurity is rampant everywhere in Burundi as much as calm prevails throughout Rwanda. The latter is nowadays well-known for being one of the most secure countries in the world, and yet, in 1994, it experienced a genocide which threw everything upside down. The organisation of a constitutional referendum on 19 December 2015 paved the way for Paul Kagame to seek another term in office in 2017. The revision of Article 101 of the Constitution by the Parliament enables him to stay in power until 2034. If the move reflects the will of the Rwandan people who had previously sent petitions to the National Assembly, it has not, however, gone down well with some international partners among which is the United States. Moreover, unlike in Burundi, Uganda, Kenya and the DRC, the Rwandan opposition grouped within the United Democratic Forces (UDF) and the Rwandan National Congress (RNC) are almost non-entities in the Rwandan political arena. 14-1 Conclusion-.indd 360 28/06/2017 21:15:09 Gahama: Conclusion – Where Do We Go from Here? 361 As for Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, he has been in power for over thirty years and he was re-elected in February 2016 as President of Uganda. While he is credited with stabilising the country after many years of dictatorship, his authority is increasingly being challenged. His authoritarian excesses pushed him as far as putting in jail his main opponent, Kizza Bessigye, on the election day; and the elections were allegedly far from being free and peaceful. Many observers point out that he owes the little credibility he has left to his involvement against the Shebab militia in Somalia and to the fact he is often called upon to mediate in regional conflicts. In the DRC, the presidential and legislative elections which are due in November 2016 constitute a great challenge and is already raising concerns. They will cost a mere sum of $ US 1,145,408,680 , a sum that is raising serious concerns among some politicians. The confusion is not yet over because it is not yet certain whether Kabila will not be tempted to seek another term although he has completed his two terms. The coming months are likely to be very hot in Kinshasa. The ongoing crises in the Great Lakes region, especially in Burundi, demonstrate the limits and contradictions of this cloudy entity called international community. Once Pierre Nkurunziza decided to go it alone, several international human rights have raised the alarm, suggesting a risk of genocide and a regional conflagration. The UN Security Council6 backed the solution proposed by the African Union (AU) and the EAC. The Heads of State of the sub-region have almost kept quiet over Nkurunziza’s third term which violated the Arusha Agreement that they had themselves signed7. The AU Peace and Security Commission tried to send to Burundi a peacekeeping force to protect civilians. Surprisingly, the African Heads of States rejected the proposal in order to give a last chance to the Burundian Government to negotiate. However, all this was in vain. The delegation sent to Bujumbura returned empty-handed. The European Union alone has decided to take serious measures: it has suspended direct development assistance, and the impact is likely to be felt in the coming months. The mediation led by Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the former Tanzanian President Benjamin William Mkapa, is struggling to get off the ground: the Bujumbura regime swears he will never negotiate with ‘the puschists’. Whether it is out of cynicism or not, the recent French proposal to send to Burundi a few policemen on a peace mission in a country controlled by Imbonerakure militia is somewhat surreal, and the fact that it was approved by all members of the UN Security Council simply makes it a sick joke. In any case, the inaction of the international community is disconcerting. Is it going to shed crocodile tears when the irreparable damage has been committed as it happened in Rwanda in 1994? 14-1 Conclusion-.indd 361 28/06/2017 21:15:09 362 Peace, Security and Post-Conflict Reconstruction in the Great Lakes Region of Africa Toward Constructing a Preventive Conflict Paradigm George Santayana’s well-known adage – ‘Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it (1924:284)’ – provides a relevant historical perspective to contextualise the arguments, the analytical perspectives, and the recommendations to be made in this section of concluding chapter. Furthermore, it should be added that people, nations, individuals, ethnic groups or social classes which do not have anything in common or do not imagine to have anything in common are not likely to go to war against one another. This is not a simplistic premise. People, states and ethnic groups in the Great Lakes region do have a lot in common as a matter of having similar histories, cultures, demographics, and sociology through extensive relationships and geopolitics. It is in their own being and their own interests to protect those of them and to imagine more new interests to be pursued and protected as part of globalism. The world of the states is the world of ideas, interests and powers. This is what this concluding remark is all about. Each contributor made specific recommendations in this book. They are not being be repeated in this conclusion. If the conditions and structures that have produced the conflicts are not systematically interrogated and eliminated, the region is likelihood to repeat similar outcomes in the future, despite the ‘plastic’ peace accords already secured. A broader theoretical framework is examined in this chapter about the prevention of conflicts and the promotion of peace.