Junction 15, Peterborough Outline Business Case May 2020 Document Control Job Number: 5080642 Document ref: Junction 15 Outline Business Case Authorisation Rev Purpose Originated Checked Reviewed Skanska Date 1.0 First Issue JB / SP JB RMJ RMJ 31.4.2020 1.1 Final Issue JB / SP JB RMJ RMJ 11.5.2020 Table of Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Strategic Case .................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Business Strategy ................................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Fit with the Wider Policy Context ........................................................................................................ 10 2.4 The Need for Change ........................................................................................................................... 12 2.5 Impact of Not Changing Junction 15 .................................................................................................. 18 2.6 Internal Drivers for Change ................................................................................................................. 20 2.7 External Drivers for Change ................................................................................................................ 22 2.8 Scheme Objectives ............................................................................................................................... 24 2.9 Measures of Success ............................................................................................................................ 25 2.10 Constraints ........................................................................................................................................... 26 2.11 Interdependencies ............................................................................................................................... 26 2.12 Stakeholders ......................................................................................................................................... 27 2.13 Options ................................................................................................................................................. 28 2.14 Strategic Case Summary ...................................................................................................................... 36 3. The Economic Case ....................................................................................................................... 38 3.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 38 3.2 Options Appraised ............................................................................................................................... 38 3.3 Economic Assessment.......................................................................................................................... 39 3.4 Sensitivity Test ...................................................................................................................................... 44 3.5 Additional Qualitative Appraisal ......................................................................................................... 46 4. The Financial Case......................................................................................................................... 49 4.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Scheme Costing .................................................................................................................................... 49 4.3 Budgets and Funding Cover ................................................................................................................ 53 5. The Commercial Case ................................................................................................................... 55 5.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 55 5.2 Output Based Specification ................................................................................................................. 55 5.3 Procurement Strategy .......................................................................................................................... 56 6. The Management Case ................................................................................................................ 60 6.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 60 6.2 Evidence of Similar Projects ................................................................................................................. 60 6.3 Programme / Project Dependencies .................................................................................................... 63 6.4 Governance, Organisational Structures and Roles ............................................................................ 63 6.5 Programme / Project Reporting ........................................................................................................... 66 6.6 Programme / Project Plan .................................................................................................................... 66 6.7 Assurance and Approvals Plan ............................................................................................................ 67 6.8 Communications and Stakeholder Management .............................................................................. 68 6.9 Risk Management Strategy ................................................................................................................. 69 6.10 Scheme Evaluation Plan (Benefits Realisation and Monitoring) ....................................................... 69 7. Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 72 Appendix A: Wider Policy Context ............................................................................................................... 73 Appendix B: NMU Audit Findings ................................................................................................................. 74 Appendix C: Preliminary Design General Arrangement Drawings ............................................................ 75 Appendix D: Economic Case Construction and Maintenance Cost Estimates ........................................... 76 Appendix E: Appraisal Summary Table (AST) .............................................................................................. 77 Appendix F: Financial Case Cost Estimates .................................................................................................. 78 Appendix G: Construction Programme ........................................................................................................ 79 Appendix H: Risk Register ............................................................................................................................. 80 Appendix I: Noise Assessment Report .......................................................................................................... 81 Tables Table 2.1: Wider Policy Context and Impact of the Scheme ............................................................. 11 Table 2.2 : Accident Severity by Location and Year ........................................................................... 17 Table 2.3: Comparison of 2017 Base Model and 2026 Do-Nothing Model (seconds) .................... 19 Table 2.4: Combined Authority Criteria ............................................................................................. 22 Table 2.5: Study Objectives and Measures of Success....................................................................... 25 Table 2.6: Long List of Options for Junction 15 ................................................................................. 29 Table 2.7: Scheme Objectives ............................................................................................................. 30 Table 2.8: Option Shortlisting Summary ............................................................................................ 31 Table 3.1: Base Investment Cost (2020 Prices) .................................................................................. 40 Table 3.2: Economic Case Scheme Cost Estimates ............................................................................ 41 Table 3.3: TUBA BCR Assessment....................................................................................................... 43 Table 3.4: Number of Trips in Low, Central, and High Growth Scenarios ....................................... 44 Table 3.5: Changes in Benefits under different Growth Scenarios .................................................. 45 Table 4.1: Financial Case Scheme Cost Estimates ............................................................................