Social outcomes of residential development, Sydney Olympic Park Stage 1: Local Area Analysis Bill Randolph, Darren Holloway and Kristian Ruming Social outcomes of residential development, Sydney Olympic Park Stage 1: Local Area Analysis Bill Randolph, Darren Holloway and Kristian Ruming © City Futures Research Centre October 2005 City Future Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment University of New South Wales Kensington, NSW 2052 1 THE AUTHORS Professor Bill Randolph is the Director of the City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, University of NSW, Sydney 2052, Australia. Email: [email protected]. Darren Holloway is a Senior Research Officer at the City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, University of NSW, Sydney 2052, Australia. Email: [email protected]. Kristian Ruming is a Research Officer at the City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, University of NSW, Sydney 2052, Australia. Email: [email protected] 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...........................................................................................5 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................9 2. PROFILE OF RESIDENTS IN HIGHER DENSITY DEVELOPMENTS NEAR OLYMPIC PARK........................................................................................................12 2.1 Socio-Economic Profile...................................................................................12 2.1.1 Overall profile of the three case study areas, 2001 .............................13 2.1.2 Analysis of specific indicators..............................................................13 2.1.3 Summary...............................................................................................16 2.2 Age by Sex.......................................................................................................19 2.3 Analysis of Migration Trends ..........................................................................21 2.3.1 Overall Migration Trends ....................................................................21 2.3.2 Migration trends by household income................................................24 2.3.3 Migration trends by age .......................................................................25 2.3.4 Migration Trends by Household Type..................................................27 2.3.5 Migration Trends by Birthplace...........................................................29 2.4 Journey to Work Patterns.................................................................................35 2.4.1 Overview...............................................................................................35 2.4.2 Detailed analysis of workplace destinations........................................35 2.5 Travel to Work Mode.......................................................................................41 2.5.1 Overview...............................................................................................41 2.5.2 Detailed analysis of travel to work mode.............................................42 3. SOCIAL MIX PROJECTIONS .............................................................................48 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................................48 3.2 The Base Case..................................................................................................49 3.3 Social Projections to 2025 ...............................................................................50 3.4 Synthesis: the SOP community in 25 years? ..................................................52 3.5 Five Yearly Age Projections............................................................................56 3.5.1 Introduction.........................................................................................56 3.5.2 Age Profile in 2025 ..............................................................................56 4. HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS.......................................................................59 4.1 Introduction......................................................................................................59 4.2 Sales Prices ......................................................................................................59 4.2.1 Sales by LGA ........................................................................................59 4.2.2 Sales by Postcode.................................................................................60 4.2.3 Summary...............................................................................................61 4.3 Rents ................................................................................................................70 4.3.1 Rents by LGA........................................................................................70 4.3.2 Rents by Postcode.................................................................................75 4.3.3 Summary...............................................................................................75 5. HOME PURCHASE AFFORDABILITY .............................................................80 5.1 Introduction......................................................................................................80 5.2 Houses and Unit Price to Income Ratios .........................................................80 5.3 Purchasing Power.............................................................................................80 5.4 Equity Gap .......................................................................................................81 5.5 Summary..........................................................................................................82 6. STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS.........................................................................91 6.1 Introduction......................................................................................................91 6.2 Analysis............................................................................................................91 3 6.3 Summary and overview .................................................................................102 7. CONCLUSION....................................................................................................105 APPENDIX 1: List of Census Collector Districts (CDs) in Case Study Areas.........107 APPENDIX 2: List of Local Government Areas by Region for Migration and Workplace Analyses ..................................................................................................108 APPENDIX 3: Detailed Migration Analysis Tabulations ........................................109 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Social profile of surrounding higher density areas in 2001 The three sub-areas included in this analysis accounted for 2,865 people in 1,069 households in 2001. Several overarching features stand out about the profile of the areas surrounding the SOP site in 2001. The recent nature of much of the housing stock in 2001 is reflected in the very low proportion of household’s resident five years before 2001. This characteristic will change as the area matures. The generally higher density nature of these areas is also highlighted, with only one-third the proportion of separate houses compared to the Sydney average. But despite the higher density nature of the housing, the balance of household types is not greatly different than Sydney as a whole, with marginally lower proportions of couples with children and lower proportions of lone persons. This may well be explained by the low proportions of older people in these areas, with the population skewed towards young and middle age adults. These areas are, therefore, new areas with younger age households but including a balance of family and non-family households. A particularly striking characteristic is the high proportion of Asian born residents and the low proportion of Australian born (indeed half were born overseas). However, these areas have also attracted higher proportions in managerial and professional employment, people with tertiary qualifications and households with higher incomes compared to Sydney averages and a lower proportion not in the workforce. These all indicate middle to higher status market in the higher density areas surrounding the SOP site with a relative lack of older people. Migration Trends A total of 2,582 residents were living in another location in 1996 than their current home in the case study CDs. Only 17% were at their current address five years previously, two and a half the average for Sydney. Overseas migrants stood out as the most common location (or ‘origin’) of these in- movers in 1996, accounting for 19% of all new residents. People who had been living in Inner Sydney in 1996 were the second most common origin location, accounting for a further 10% of new residents. Northern Sydney was the third largest origin, accounting for 10% of new residents, with the majority from this origin locating in Liberty Grove. In other words, few in-movers came for the areas immediately surrounding the SOP site, with few from Strathfield and Auburn. In-moving households were generally on higher incomes compared to Sydney at this time. In-movers were disproportionately concentrated in the younger adult age cohorts, between 25 and 44 years, with lower proportions of children and older people However, the local movement included