INTEREL INSIGHTS Post-Election Analysis 1 JUNE 2017 Making sense of the chaos style, and vowed to listen and react ac- of the House of Commons, whilst her As we take stock of last week's cordingly. Indeed, she has already re- predecessor David Lidington has re- shock General Election result placed her two chiefs of staff Nick Tim- placed Liz Truss as Justice Secretary. and the pieces fall into place, othy and Fiona Hill with outgoing MP She has been moved to Chief Secretary Interel has provided an analysis Gavin Barwell, and is alleged to have of the Treasury in what is being seen of events over the last few days promised Cabinet colleagues a more by some as a demotion and by other and look at what is likely to collegiate, rather than presidential a sideways move. David Gauke is pro- unfold in the coming days and style of leadership. Conservative back- moted to Secretary for Work and Pen- weeks. benchers will now expect this Theresa sions, whilst his predecessor Damian May to be the one leading to country, Green becomes First Secretary of State not the Theresa May who led the party at the Cabinet Office, a role said to be to a minority result. not dissimilar from the one Nick Clegg 1922 Committee had as Deputy Prime Minister dur- Reshuffle ing the coalition, in an effort to move Number 10 towards a more inclusive Theresa May’s political future was de- style of leadership than it has exhibited pendent on her performance at the Rumours of a major reshuffle dissipat- in the last 12 months. 1922 Committee meeting on Monday ed almost as soon as the exit poll hit night. This is the influential committee the airwaves. Moving any big players DUP negotiations representing Conservative backbench down or out would have risked unset- MPs. tling the delicate equilibrium keeping By all accounts she hit exactly the the Prime Minister in place. The Democratic Unionist Party is the right tone to win back enough support None of the previous Cabinet Min- kingmaker in this hung parliament. from her party and dissuade critics isters have been removed, but there Theresa May has been in negotiations from forcing her out in the immediate have been a few changes. The divi- with the DUP since last Friday, but no future. Contrition, humility and a deter- sive Michael Gove, known to have an agreement has been reached yet. Em- mination to get “out of this mess” may uneasy relationship with Theresa May, barrassingly, Number 10 were forced have given her some time to prove her has been brought back as the new En- to retract an erroneous statement that leadership. vironment, Food and Rural Affairs Sec- a deal had been done on Saturday She is said to have acknowledged retary. One time leadership challenger evening. Mrs May met DUP leader criticism of herself, and her leadership Andrea Leadsom has become Leader Arlene Foster on Tuesday and it is be- 2 lieved a deal is close to being finalised. to form a new power sharing Execu- staunchly Eurosceptic MP, as a Minis- The DUP are now saying that any an- tive may force another snap election in ter in the Department for Exiting the nouncement will be delayed due to the Northern Ireland, which no side wants, EU. This was an indication, as reiter- very tragic events of Wednesday morn- or a return to direct rule, which is re- ated by David Davis this week, that the ing of a fatal tower block fire in West garded by nationalists and the Irish Government does not intend to alter London, but Downing Street are brief- Government as illegitimate. The con- its approach to Brexit with regards to ing that any talk of delay is not coming tinued stalemate will have to come to membership of the Single Market or from them, which may point to further an end and will require careful negoti- Customs Union. Baker has spoken of potential problems to come. ation, which is currently underway. a “clean exit” in terms of minimising A confidence and supply relation- Another dynamic to these nega- disruption, but a real Brexit controlling ship is the most likely outcome, which tions is the relationship with the Scot- laws, money, borders and trade at UK means the DUP would back the Gov- tish Conservatives and their leader, level. ernment on an issue-by-issue basis Ruth Davidson. The DUP is the political With Brexit negotiations due to start rather than any formal coalition or home for devout Protestant Christians, on Monday, the DUP deal not yet fi- taking a seat in the cabinet. Crucially, many of whom oppose gay marriage nalised, and May’s authority in serious this would require support for the Gov- and abortion. This is very much at odds doubt, she will need a strong poker ernment’s budget. with the views of Ruth Davidson, who is face to get through these initial stages. The DUP is in a strong position to a firm supporter of LGBT rights. Cru- bring home the bacon for Northern cially without the 12 new Scottish MPs, Queens Speech and Ireland, including increased funding which were secured due to the strong Parliamentary Business for Stormont and increases in health national appeal and campaign run by and education spending, although this Davidson, May would not have been is at odds with the Conservative man- able to form a minority government. This week saw the start of the process ifesto. What is perhaps more signifi- Davidson has sought assurances that of MPs being sworn into the House cant is the consequences for Brexit and any deal with the DUP would protect of Commons and John Bercow was power sharing between the Northern LGBT rights. re-elected as Speaker of the Com- Irish parties. mons, allowing Theresa May to hum- The DUP will want a softer Brexit to Impact on Brexit bly quip that at least someone got a maintain, as far as possible, current landslide. cross border arrangements with the The next big event will be the Republic of Ireland. Former First Min- Stripped of her authority, Mrs May is Queen’s Speech, which is given at ister Arlene Foster has said this is a red now caught between the Brexiteers the State Opening of Parliament and line for negotiations. who will plot against her if she softens marks the beginning of a new Parlia- In addition, Sinn Féin, the DUP and her approach, and the pro-Europeans mentary year. It was due to take place other parties are in a renewed effort to who have renewed hope for just that. on Monday 19th June. However, it is restore the devolved assembly in Stor- This is further bolstered by the need to now going to be delayed due to the mont. The Irish and UK Governments do a deal with the DUP and the elec- hold up in negotiations between the have previously been brokers in these tion result, which it could be argued, Conservatives and the DUP. negotiations as neutral parties. How- removed the mandate for a hard Brex- This speech will set out the Govern- ever, the UK Government’s impartiality it. ment’s legislative agenda for this Par- may be jeopardised if they are to rely An indication of her intentions was liament, which may now hinge on what on DUP support in Westminster. Failure the appointment of Steve Baker, the the DUP has agreed to back. 3 Given the fragility of May’s majority results, Jeremy Corbyn seems to have Another election and the DUP agreement, the Conserv- vanquished much of the criticism that ative manifesto may well be stripped has haunted him throughout his lead- to its bare bones and any contentious ership. Most in the Labour Party seem Another election in the next 12 months measures are likely to be abandoned content now to get fully behind him would mean a fifth national vote in five to avoid defeat in Parliament. and it is rumoured that heavy hitters years. But with turnout slightly up from We may see core DUP manifesto Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper could 2015, political fatigue does not seem commitments be included, such as the return to the frontbenches. to have taken root just yet. abolition of short haul Air Passenger A question remains over whether this If another election is called, it would Duty for Northern Ireland, and May popularity wave that Corbyn current- likely be out of necessity, not oppor- could use the DUP deal as a conven- ly rides may have already hit its crest. tunism as it was this time. If the Con- ient way to drop unpopular policies Corbyn, unlike May, is a campaigner. servative deal with the DUP collaps- such as the plan to scrap the triple lock He has been at his best when he has es or legislation can no longer move on pensions, the “dementia tax”, and been in campaign mode; both during through the Commons, the chamber means testing winter fuel payments. the two leadership elections and in this may become effectively defunct. Like- These could be replaced with a pledge General Election (although interesting- wise, if a bill emerges which threatens to launch a consultation on the future ly not so during the EU Referendum to radically undermine the Govern- of social care instead. We are also un- campaign). As Leader of Her Majesty’s ment’s position on Brexit, the Prime likely to see the removal of the ban on Opposition, Corbyn has struggled to Minister might think it obligatory to grammar schools, which had caused portray himself as a Prime Minister in get a renewed mandate on the issue.