Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Basic Services and Transport Infrastructure 101004830 - CRISIS - UCPM-2020-PP-AG Cross-Border Multi Hazard Assessment Identification of all relevant natural and human-induced hazards in the cross- border region Work package: WP-2 Deliverable Number: D.2.1 Lead Beneficiary: UPT-FCE Coordinator: AUTH Contributing Beneficiaries: UPT-FCE, IZIIS, CMC Dissemination Level: Public Version: 01 Due Date: December 31, 2020 Submission Date: December 31, 2020 Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Basic Services and Transport Infrastructure (CRISIS) 101004830 - CRISIS - UCPM-2020-PP-AG Cross-Border Multi Hazard Assessment Identification of cross-border natural and human-induced hazards WP-2 | D.2.1 Contributing Authors Evi Riga (AUTH) Stavroula Fotopoulou (AUTH) Christos Petridis (AUTH) Dimitris Pitilakis (AUTH) Radmila Salic (IZIIS) Julijana Bojadjieva (IZIIS) Kemal Edip (IZIIS) Marta Stojmanovska (IZIIS) Vlatko Sesov (IZIIS) Roberta Apostolska (IZIIS) Dr. Stevko Stefanoski (CMC) Trajce Jovanovski (CMC) Genti Qiriazi (UPT-FCE) Neritan Shkodrani (UPT-FCE) Shkëlqim Daja (UPT-FCE) Anjeza Gjini (UPT-FCE) Markel Baballëku (UPT-FCE) December 31, 2020 WP-2 | D.2.1 101004830 - CRISIS - UCPM-2020-PP-AG TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 BASIC INFORMATION RELATED TO CROSS BORDER REGION ................................................ 1 1.1 GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Greece ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 North Macedonia .............................................................................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Albania .............................................................................................................................................. 4 1.2 DEMOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 Greece ............................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.2 North Macedonia .............................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.3 Albania .............................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 GENERAL DATA ON RELEVANT EXPOSURE (BASIC SERVICES & TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE) ........ 11 1.3.1 Greece ............................................................................................................................................. 11 1.3.2 North Macedonia ............................................................................................................................ 11 1.3.3 Albania ............................................................................................................................................ 15 2 NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS ............................................................................... 16 2.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................... 16 2.2 IDENTIFICATION OF NATURAL HAZARDS AT THE CROSS-BORDER REGION ............................................ 20 2.3 EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ........................................................................................................................ 27 2.3.1 Greek-side borders ......................................................................................................................... 29 2.3.2 North Macedonian-side borders ..................................................................................................... 31 2.3.3 Albanian-side borders .................................................................................................................... 32 2.4 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE WITH RESPECT TO EARTHQUAKES ............................................................ 35 2.4.1 Greek-side borders ......................................................................................................................... 35 2.4.2 North Macedonian-side borders ..................................................................................................... 36 2.4.3 Albanian-side borders .................................................................................................................... 39 2.5 LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ................................................................................................................ 43 2.5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.2 Landslide Susceptibility model ....................................................................................................... 43 2.5.3 Greek-side borders ......................................................................................................................... 44 2.5.4 North Macedonian-side borders ..................................................................................................... 46 2.5.5 Albanian-side borders .................................................................................................................... 47 2.6 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE WITH RESPECT TO LANDSLIDES ................................................................ 48 2.6.1 Greek-side borders ......................................................................................................................... 48 2.6.2 N. Macedonian-side borders ........................................................................................................... 48 2.6.3 Albanian-side borders .................................................................................................................... 50 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................... 51 ii WP-2 | D.2.1 101004830 - CRISIS - UCPM-2020-PP-AG LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Greek part of the studied cross-border region; Municipalities. ........................ 1 Figure 2. Greek part of the studied cross-border region; Main cities. .............................. 2 Figure 3. N. Macedonian part of the studied cross-border region ............................................. 2 Figure 4. Albanian part of the studied cross-border region ....................................................... 5 Figure 5. Greek population by gender and age (left) and evolution (right). .............................. 6 Figure 6. Disposition of population in CBR-MKD. .................................................................. 9 Figure 7. Disposition of population in CBR-ALB ................................................................... 10 Figure 8. Disposition of relevant exposure. ............................................................................. 12 Figure 9. Disposition of relevant exposure .............................................................................. 15 Figure 10. Spatial distribution of earthquake hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard! . ......................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 11. Spatial distribution of landslide hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. .......................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 12. Spatial distribution of extreme heat hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. ..................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 13. Spatial distribution of coastal flood hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. ..................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 14. Spatial distribution of tsunami hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. .......................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 15. Spatial distribution of river flood hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. .......................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 16. Spatial distribution of urban flood hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. ..................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 17. Spatial distribution of water scarcity hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. ..................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 18. Spatial distribution of wildfire hazard levels at the cross-border region based on ThinkHazard!. .......................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 19. Spatial distribution of PGA at the cross-border region for a reference rock condition (vs30 = 800 m/s) and