Appendix 2A. Patterns of major armed conflicts, 1999–2008 LOTTA HARBOM AND PETER WALLENSTEEN* I. Introduction This appendix reports on trends in major armed conflicts in the 10-year period 1999–2008. A total of 34 major armed conflicts were active during the period.1 The number of major armed conflicts rose in 2008 to 16, after a gradual decline since 2005. Several conflicts were active throughout the period analysed: those between the Turkish Government and the Kurdish rebel group Partiya Kar- kerên Kurdistan (PKK, Kurdistan Workers’ Party), between separatist rebels in Kashmir and the Indian Government, and between the Government of the Philippines and the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). Section II of this appendix describes global patterns in major armed conflicts in 1999–2008. Section III describes regional patterns during the same period. Section IV discusses changes to the list of major armed conflicts between 2007 and 2008. Section VI provides details of the definitions, sources and methods used by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) in compiling the data on major armed conflicts. Table 2A.3 presents data on the major armed conflicts that were active in 2008. One-sided violence inflicted on civilians by armed actors is a prominent feature of contemporary armed conflict.2 Section V presents, for the first time in the SIPRI Yearbook, UCDP data on one-sided violence. This data covers the 10-year period 1997–2006. 1 The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) defines a major armed conflict as a contested incompatibility concerning government, territory or both over which the use of armed force between the military forces of 2 parties—of which at least 1 is the government of a state—has resulted in at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a calendar year. For more on the definition see sec- tion VI. UCDP data and publications on armed conflict and other forms of organized violence, peace agreements and conflict prevention measures by third parties are available at the UCDP website, <http://www.ucdp.uu.se/>. 2 The UCDP defines one-sided violence as the use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organized group against civilians that has resulted in at least 25 deaths in a single calendar year. Extrajudicial killings in custody are excluded. See Eck, K. and Hultman, L., ‘One- sided violence against civilians in war: insights from new fatality data’, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 44, no. 2 (2007); and Human Security Report Project, Human Security Brief 2007 (Simon Frasier University, School for International Studies: Vancouver, 2007), pp. 41–44. On one-sided violence in the context of several armed conflicts that were active in 2008 see chapter 2. * Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. For table 2A.3, Johan Brosché was responsible for the conflict location Sudan; Kristine Eck for India; Helena Grusell for Colombia and Peru; Anna Hesselgren for Sri Lanka; Stina Högbladh for Burundi; Emma Johansson for Turkey; Joakim Kreutz for Iraq, Myanmar and Pakistan; Sara Lindberg for Somalia; Therése Pettersson for the Philippines; and Ralph Sundberg for Afghanistan, Israel and the USA. 70 SECURITY AND CONFLICTS, 2008 Table 2A.1. Regional distribution, number and type of major armed conflict, 1999–2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Region G T G T G T G T G T G T G T G T G T G T Africa 9 1 7 1 7 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 Americas 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 Asia 2 4 2 5 2 5 2 4 2 5 2 2 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 4 Europe 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 Middle East 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 Total 13 8 10 9 12 8 10 7 9 8 8 5 9 7 9 6 7 7 10 6 Total 21 19 20 17 17 13 16 15 14 16 G = government and T = territory, the two types of incompatibility. Table 2A.2. Regional distribution of locations with at least one major armed conflict, 1999–2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Africa 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 1 3 Americas 1 0 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 Asia 6 6 6 5 6 3 6 6 5 6 Europe 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 Middle East 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total 21 18 19 16 16 12 15 15 13 15 II. Global patterns in major armed conflicts In 2008, 16 major armed conflicts were active in 15 locations around the world. Starting at 21 in 1999, the period analysed thus saw an overall decline in the number of major armed conflicts. However, as can be seen in table 2A.1, the decrease was uneven; for example, the number of major armed conflicts increased by two between 2007 and 2008. The lowest number of conflicts, 13, is recorded for 2004. For the fifth year running, no interstate conflicts was active in 2008. Only three of the 34 conflicts active in the period 1999–2008 were fought between states: Eritrea–Ethiopia (1998–2000); India–Pakistan (1997–2003); and Iraq– the USA and its allies (2003). The first two of these concerned territory and the third was fought over governmental power. The other 31 conflicts were all fought within states—9 over territory and 22 over government. Conflicts over government outnumbered conflicts over territory in every year of the period. Four intrastate major armed conflicts active in 2008 were internationalized— that is, they included troops from states that were not primary parties to the conflict but were aiding one of the conflict parties: those between the US Government and al-Qaeda; between the Afghan Government and the Taliban TRENDS IN ARMED CONFLICTS 71 and Hezb-e-Islami; between the Iraqi Government and the numerous insur- gency groups operating in Iraq; and between the Transitional Federal Govern- ment (TFG) in Somalia and the al-Shabab militia.3 As in 2006 and 2007, all the internationalized major armed conflicts active in 2008 were in some way linked to the US-led ‘global war on terrorism’.4 In all cases the foreign troops supported the government side in the conflict.5 III. Regional patterns in major armed conflicts In 2008 seven major armed conflicts were active in Asia, making it the region with the highest total for the fourth consecutive year. Three major armed con- flicts each were active in Africa, the Americas and the Middle East. For the first time in the 10-year period, no major armed conflict took place in Europe in 2008. The regional distribution of conflicts and locations in the period 1999– 2008 are shown in tables 2A.1 and 2A.2, respectively. Figure 2A.1 presents the regional distribution and total number of conflicts for each year in the period. In 1999–2008, 13 major armed conflicts are recorded for Africa, the highest regional total.6 However, from 1999 there was a marked decrease in the number of such conflicts in Africa, falling steadily from 10 in the peak year, 1999, to one in 2007. In 2008 the number rose to three. Of the 13 conflicts, only Eritrea–Ethiopia was interstate. However, seven of the intrastate conflicts in Africa were internationalized at some point during the period, a distinguishing feature for the region. All 12 intrastate conflicts recorded for Africa concerned governmental power. Three major armed conflicts are recorded for the Americas during the period.7 The annual number of active conflicts ranged from none (in 2000) to three (2007 and 2008). All three conflicts concerned governmental power. 3 The brief outbreak of conflict in 2009 between Georgian and South Ossetian forces, in which Russia intervened in support of the South Ossetians, did not meet the criterion of 1000 battle-related deaths in a calendar year and thus is recorded by UCDP as a minor, not major, armed conflict. On the conflict see chapter 2, section V. 4 On the Somali conflict’s tenuous links to the US-led ‘global war on terrorism’ see Harbom, L. and Wallensteen, P., ‘Patterns of major armed conflict, 1998–2007’, SIPRI Yearbook 2008: Arma- ments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2008), pp. 73–74. 5 For states whose troops are involved in these conflicts see table 2A.3. On the conflict between the USA and al-Qaeda and the complex issues affecting its coding in the UCDP database see Eriks- son, M., Sollenberg, M. and Wallensteen, P., ‘Patterns of major armed conflict, 1990–2001’, SIPRI Yearbook 2002: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2002), pp. 67–68. 6 The 13 major armed conflicts recorded for Africa are Algeria, Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of the Congo, Eritrea–Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda. When only the name of a country is given, this indicates a conflict over government. The name of the contested territory appears in parenthesis after the country name in the case of conflicts over territory. 7 The 3 major armed conflicts recorded for the Americas are Colombia, Peru and the USA (the conflict between the US Government and al-Qaeda).