Strategies to support the COVID-19 response in LMICs A virtual seminar series Planning for the pandemic: Social distancing, containment, mitigation, reopening Tom Inglesby, MD Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Learning Objectives Social distancing and reopening during COVID19 • Social distancing – planning before COVID19 • Social distancing during COVID19 • Reproductive numbers • State conditions important for reopening • Decreasing trends in cases • Diagnostics • Hospital capacity to care without crisis standards of care • Contact tracing • Maryland Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the US Feb 2007 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic H Markel, H Lipman, A Navarro, et al JAMA. 2007;298(6):644-654. doi:10.1001/jama.298.6.644 • Studied 43 cities in period of Sept 1918-Feb 1919. • 115,340 excess pneumonia & influenza deaths (EDR) in that period • Each city adopted at least 1 of 3 major interventions: school closure, public gathering bans or isolation & quarantine • School closure and gathering bans were most common combination, implemented in 34 cities (79%) w/ median duration of 4 wks (range, 1-10 weeks). Significantly associated w/ reductions in weekly EDR. • Cities that implemented NPIs earlier had greater delays in reaching peak mortality, lower peak mortality rates, and lower total mortality. Statistically significant association between increased duration of NPIs and reduced total mortality burden. • Conclusions Strong association between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating consequences of 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in US. In planning for future severe influenza pandemics, NPIs should be considered for inclusion as companion measures to developing effective vaccines and medications for prophylaxis and treatment. CDC Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017 Recommendations and Reports / April 21, 2017 / 66(1);1–34 CDC Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017 Recommendations and Reports / April 21, 2017 / 66(1);1–34 Wuhan health care system in crisis Huoshenshan (Fire God Mountain) Hospital in South China Morning Post Jan 24, 2020 Wuhan, Global Times, Feb 4, 2020 Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and ICU Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China Burden of Serious Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. Wuhan city locked down on January 23, with a cumulative 495 confirmed cases and 23 deaths among patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Guangzhou initiated level 1 public health response on the same date, with a cumulative 7 confirmed cases and 0 deaths. JAMA Netw Open. R Li, C Rivers, Q Tan, M Murray, E Toner, M Lipsitch. 2020;3(5):e208297. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8297 From: Public Health Measures and the Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 JAMA. Inglesby TV. May 01, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.7878 Originally published in JAMA. Pan A et al. 2020;323(19):1915-1923. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6130 : The Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) Estimates Based on Laboratory-Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases in Wuhan, China. The effective reproduction number Rt is defined as the mean number of secondary cases generated by a typical primary case at time t in a population, calculated for the whole period over a 5-day moving average. Results are shown since January 1, 2020, given the limited number of diagnosed cases and limited diagnosis capacity in December 2019. The darkened horizontal line indicates Rt = 1, below which sustained transmission is unlikely so long as antitransmission measures are sustained, indicating that the outbreak is under control. The 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are presented as gray shading. Copyright 2020 American Medical Association. Date of download: 5/19/2020 All Rights Reserved. From: Public Health Measures and the Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 JAMA. Published online Inglesby TV. May 01, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.7878 Figure Legend: Concepts of the Effective Reproduction Number Copyright 2020 American Medical Association. Date of download: 5/19/2020 All Rights Reserved. Italy’s reported COVID19 cases daily Nationwide stay at home order made on March 9 https://maxeyre.shinyapps.io/shinyapp/ Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team, March 16, 2020 Figure 1: Unmitigated epidemic scenarios for GB and the US. (A) Projected deaths per day per 100,000 population in GB and US. Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study B Cowling, S Ali, T Ng, T Tsang, J Li, M Fong, Q Liao, M Kwan, S Lee, S Chiu, J Wu, P Wu, G Leung Lancet Public Health 2020; 5: e279–88 Published Online April 17, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30090-6 • Analyzed COVID 19 and Influenza data in outputs of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. Estimated daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 • 3 telephone surveys done: Jan 20–23, Feb 11–14, and March 10–13, 2020 • COVID-19 Rt remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong • Influenza transmission declined substantially after social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late Jan, with a 44% (95% CI 34–53%) reduction in transmissibility from an estimated Rt of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) before start of school closures to 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during closure weeks • 33% (24–43%) reduction in influenza transmissibility (based on paediatric hosp rates), from Rt of 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before start of school closures to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures • Among respondents to surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%,90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places • Interpretation: NPIs (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early Feb, 2020 Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States S Pei, S Kandula, J Shaman doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655 -- pre print server Conditions for Reopening a State • Sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days • Hospitals in state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care • State is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms • State is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts – (contact tracing) • Move carefully in stages every 2-3 weeks, reviewing data before proceeding Even as reopening efforts begin, continue to: • Place high priority on prevention of transmission in vulnerable • Wear cloth facemasks when in buildings or near others • Practice individual physical distancing at least 6 feet • Avoid gatherings Once decisions have been made to reopen Recommendations included: • Involve stakeholder groups in decision-making to understand needs, capacities, challenges of different communities. • Organizations and activities that are outdoors less likely to result in transmission than are indoor activities assuming personal mitigation measures (maintaining 6 feet of separation, wearing nonmedical cloth masks in public) maintained. • Businesses and sectors that have low contact intensity, low numbers of contacts, and high ability to modify operations in ways that diminish the potential to spread will be safer to reopen sooner and more fully than those with high contact intensity, high contacts, and the inability to modify or mitigate operations. • While public transportation is normally high contact intensity and high numbers of contacts, modifications should be pursued to make them safer. More spacing between people, with lower ridership, would reduce risks. Without public transportation, many people will not be able to get to work at all. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html New case trends in states (as of May 21) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html Maryland Coronavirus Dashboard Confirmed Maryland COVID 19 deaths Total: 2,130 May 23: 38 https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ Maryland case statistics and geographical distribution (as of May 23) https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ Maryland cases by age, race, ethnicity (as of May 23) https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ COVID Diagnostic Test Positivity Maryland statistics: Average of ~6,400 tests per day 3,772 tests/100,000 people (25th in country) Percent positive this week 16.5% (last week was 21.2%) 735 confirmed tests / 100,000 people (10th highest in country) 36.5 deaths /100,000 people (10th highest in country) https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity Jenn Nuzzo, Beth Blauer and colleagues Contact Tracing • From report: • Recommends hiring 100,000 contact tracers for the country • ~ 30/100,000 people • Wuhan alone used 9000 • Can be trained quickly – need to be able to understand symptoms, have basic data skills, ability to interview, risk communication, cultural sensitivity • Systems needed to protect privacy and ensure confidence • $3.6B to cover salaries – does not cover costs of quarantining people outside home, stipends for lost work etc. Extrapolating to Maryland • 6M people, so need about 1800 tracers • State health dept hiring 1,000 new contact tracers through NORC • About 750 people doing contact tracing in Maryland state in health depts Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner* pre-print server *Federal Reserve Board “The economy is just us…How much would we each be willing to give up to stay safe? If we open tomorrow, few are going to be willing to take the risk of engaging fully in the economy.