INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF RWANDA’S POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY 2002-2005 (PRSP1) FINAL REPORT February 20, 2006 Alison Evans (IDS) Laure-Hélène Piron (ODI) Zaza Curran (ODI) Ruth Driscoll (ODI) with Charles Twesigye-Bakwatsa (Centre for Resource Analysis) Iyadema Sezikeye J. Bosco (Centre for Resource Analysis) 1 CONTENTS ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................8 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF THE EVALUATION .............................................15 The PRSP Concept.................................................................................................15 Purpose and Focus of the Evaluation ..................................................................16 Evaluation Framework ...........................................................................................16 Evaluation methodology........................................................................................19 2. RWANDA’S DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT ......................................................................20 Overview..................................................................................................................20 Poverty & Vulnerability Trends .............................................................................20 Governance and State Building ............................................................................21 Other National Planning Instruments ...................................................................23 Aid Flows.................................................................................................................23 3. MAIN FINDINGS – PRIORITY AREAS AND CROSS CUTTING ISSUES ............................25 Relevance................................................................................................................25 Efficiency.................................................................................................................34 Effectiveness ..........................................................................................................35 Impact and Sustainability ......................................................................................48 4. MAIN FINDINGS – PRSP PROCESS..........................................................................60 Overview..................................................................................................................60 Consultation and Participation .............................................................................61 Sector Strategy Processes....................................................................................67 Resource Allocation and Mobilisation .................................................................69 Monitoring and Evaluation ....................................................................................72 Donor Alignment and Harmonisation...................................................................76 5. OVERALL ASSESSMENT ..........................................................................................80 The PRSP ‘logic model’ .........................................................................................80 6. ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE NEXT PHASE..........................................85 Second generation PRSs - what have we learned? ............................................85 Scope and Policy Content .....................................................................................86 Scaling-up/Absorptive Capacity Challenges .......................................................89 2 Strategic Planning, Budgeting and M&E..............................................................90 Governance and Politics........................................................................................90 Building a Stronger Development Partnership....................................................92 REFERENCES....................................................................................................................94 ANNEX 1...........................................................................................................................96 POVERTY MONITORING INDICATORS ..........................................................................96 ANNEX 2...........................................................................................................................97 SELECTED BACKGROUND DATA & INDICATORS..........................................................97 COMPARATIVE GOVERNANCE INDICATORS...............................................................102 ANNEX 3.........................................................................................................................105 SUMMARIES OF EVALUATION WORKSHOPS ..............................................................105 ANNEX 4.........................................................................................................................112 STAKEHOLDER SURVEY...........................................................................................112 SURVEY RESPONDENTS...........................................................................................118 Figures Figure 1: Evaluation Framework.................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2: PRSP Logic Model ......................................................................................................... 18 Figure 3: Labour Productivity in Agriculture - Selected African Countries 1980-2000 .................. 21 Figure 4: Total Aid Flows 1990-2004 ............................................................................................ 24 Figure 5: Trends in Fertiliser Imports and Number of Importers 2001-5....................................... 37 Figure 8: Progress with Governance 1998, 2002 and 2004.......................................................... 57 Figure 9: Stakeholder Views on Progress with the PRSP Principles in Rwanda.......................... 60 Figure 10: Survey Responses on Government CSO Collaboration.............................................. 64 Figure 11: Survey Responses on Donor Behaviour...................................................................... 77 Figure 12: Strengths and weaknesses of the PRSP logic model in Rwanda................................ 81 Figure 13: Survey Responses on the Relevance and Value Added of the PRS Process............. 82 Figure 14: FDI inflows, inter-country comparison........................................................................ 101 TABLES Table 1: Statement of Evaluation Criteria ..................................................................................... 17 Table 2: Income Poverty Data (Percentage below the Poverty Line) ........................................... 20 Table 3: Rwanda's Aid Dependence 2002-2003........................................................................... 24 Table 4: Main Elements of the Strategy ........................................................................................ 26 Table 5: How Cross Cutting Issues Have Evolved Over the PRS Period*.................................... 47 Table 6: Priority Spending Trends................................................................................................. 48 Table 7: Annual Average Growth Rates by Sector........................................................................ 50 Table 8: Selected 'Outcome/Impact' Indicators ............................................................................. 54 Table 9: Registered Investments - Operational vs. Non-Operational............................................ 56 Table 10: The PRSP has brought about Significant Changes for the Better in Which Areas?..... 82 Table 11: Survey Responses - What are the Main Things that PRSP1 lacks? ............................ 83 Table 12: Vision 2020, PRSP1 and the MDGs.............................................................................. 96 3 Table 13: Priority Spending Trends............................................................................................... 97 Table 14: Education Sector Performance ..................................................................................... 98 Table 15: Health Sector Performance ........................................................................................... 99 Table 16: Press Freedom – Rwanda and other African PRSP countries.................................... 104 Table 17: Composition of Survey Respondents .......................................................................... 118 Table 18: Composition of Survey Respondents by stated involvement in the PRSP Process ... 118 BOXES Box 1: Vision 2020......................................................................................................................... 22 Box 2: Income and Nutritional Outcomes in Rural Areas 1990-2000............................................ 28 Box 3: Identifying Rwanda's Governance Challenges .................................................................. 30 Box 4: Decentralisation and Efficiency in Health and Education................................................... 35 Box 5: PSTA Programmes and Sub-Programmes.......................................................................