Election FOCUS JANUARY 14, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 1 Inside This Issue: An Overview of the • Overview of 2004 2004 Presidential Race Race . .page 1 The 2004 race for the White House begins with the Iowa caucuses on • The 2004 Presidential Election: An interview January 19, and then, a little more than a week later the New Hampshire primary with Charles Cook . .page 1 on January 27. These initial election events are considered to be the official start to the campaign season, and their outcomes will set the tone for the primaries and • Campaign Highlight: caucuses that follow, state by state, until early June. On March 2, “Super Tuesday,” Biographies of the 10 states—California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, 10 Candidates . .page 8 New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont—will hold primary elections or • Campaign Calendar: caucuses. Many believe that the eventual Democratic nominee will be known Schedule of Primaries soon after this date. President Bush, running unopposed for the Republican and Caucuses . .page 10 nomination, is certain to be his party’s candidate. This year there are nine Democratic contenders—former Senator Carol Moseley Braun, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Wesley Clark, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Senator John Edwards (North FAST FACTS: Carolina), Congressman Richard Gephardt (Missouri), Senator John Kerry (Massachusetts), Congressman Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), Senator Joseph ✔ History Shows January Lieberman (Connecticut) and Reverend Alfred Sharpton. Front Runner Often Does Not (continued on page 2) Win Democratic Nomination In only 4 out of 10 election years did the front runner at this stage of the campaign win the The 2004 Presidential Election: Democratic Party’s nomination, An Interview with Charles Cook according to a recent poll analysis done by the Gallup Organization. Charles E. Cook, Jr., editor and trade, the economy, job growth and the These four were Adlai Stevenson publisher of The Cook Report, is a war in Iraq, dominating the campaign. in 1952, John F. Kennedy in 1960, Walter Mondale in 1984, and political analyst for the National Al Gore in 2000. In all other Journal Group, and is regarded as one Q: What will be the major instances, someone else came of the nation's leading authorities on issues in the 2004 elections? U.S. elections and political trends. from behind as the primary A: If I had a choice, if I had to predict Recently, Washington File Staff writer season unfolded. whether President Bush was going to Darlisa Crawford talked to Cook about get reelected or not, and if I had a the 2004 presidential election. He choice of knowing either who the To receive this newsletter predicts that the upcoming presidential Democratic nominee was going to be via a listserv go to: race will be a “big-issue” election with http://www.usembassy.de/mail (continued on page 3) ELECTION FOCUS 2004 (continued from page 1) selection is made for the presidential larger amounts than $18.8 million in and vice presidential nominee, and public subsidies through the nominat- In recent elections, presidential their policy positions, or “platforms.” ing conventions for their campaign. candidates have begun their campaigns The Democratic National Convention At the general election on more than a year before the first cau- will take place July 26th – 29th in November 2 voters across the country cuses and primaries. The media, public Boston, Massachusetts. The cast their votes for president. But a opinion polls and fundraising test a Republican National Convention will nationwide popular vote does not candidate’s popularity long before any take place in New York City from determine the winner. In actuality, votes are cast. Therefore, candidates August 30th – September 2nd, the voters have selected a slate of must get their message out and attract latest a Republican national conven- “electors” to the Electoral College, new supporters early in the process. tion has ever been held. a system written into the U.S. They also need to maintain their The financing of campaigns Constitution by the Founding Fathers. momentum and continue to bring in remains an issue of great attention In all states except Maine and funds through the lengthy election and controversy. The McCain-Feingold Nebraska, the party that wins the cycle: the primaries, the political con- Law, recently upheld by the U.S. popular vote commits all of its elec- ventions and the general campaign. Supreme Court, places some restric- tors—each state is entitled to as many Another reason getting off to a tions on how money for political electors as it has U.S. senators and fast start is crucial is the increasingly campaigns can be raised and spent. representatives in Congress—to the early scheduling of primaries and Despite these limitations, however, winning candidate. caucuses, a phenomenon known as candidates and parties will spend On December 13, 2004 the elec- “front-loading.” Various states, hoping many hundreds of millions of dollars tors will meet and vote for president to play a more decisive role in the on television and radio advertising, and vice president. The two-party process, have scheduled their primar- direct voter outreach and so-called electoral system of Democrats and ies and caucuses early in 2004. Other “issue ads” promoting political posi- Republicans requires an absolute states—Colorado, Kansas, Utah and tions on specific issues without majority of the 50 states or 270 elec- Washington—have reacted to this endorsing a candidate by name. The toral votes, since there are 538 total front-loading of the campaign calendar federal government also provides electoral votes. The votes are certified by canceling their primaries altogether funding to help national candidates by state authorities and sent to in the belief that a late primary will finance the campaigns for their Washington, D.C. where on January 6, have little impact on the outcome, and parties’ nominations, but several 2005, the votes will be counted by the choosing instead to save the millions candidates, including President Bush president of the Senate, with the full of dollars required to stage an election. and Howard Dean, the current Senate and House of Representatives Results from the primaries and Democratic front runner, have opted in attendance. At that time, the candi- caucuses gradually lessen the number out of this system, believing they can date officially becomes the winner and of candidates, as some contenders raise more funds by themselves. This president-elect. drop out, and determine how many decision will free all three candidates The inauguration of the new delegates will be pledged to each can- from a $45 million spending limit, president takes place at noon on didate. The delegates come together at which is imposed on any candidate January 20, 2005, ending an election their parties’ national convention, held who receives such public funding. All process that began nearly two years during the summer, where a final three candidates believe they can raise before. ■ The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The — BUREAU OF — newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion INTERNATIONAL polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major INFORMATION presidential candidates. PROGRAMS Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information Programs. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE 2 ELECTION FOCUS 2004 ELECTION FOCUS 2004 (continued from page 1) then it really doesn’t matter who the events. opponent is. The 2004 Presidential It also depends on who the Democratic candidate is. Election: An Interview And conversely, if people have lost confidence in a president, if they with Charles Cook Obviously, if you’re Howard Dean don’t believe he deserves reelection, and oppose the war completely, your or how the war in Iraq is doing in the they don’t have confidence in him to attacks are of one nature. three or four months leading into the lead us for the next four years, then If you’re Joe Lieberman, and were election, I’d rather know how the war it almost doesn’t matter who the oppo- fully supportive of the war, enthusias- is doing. I think that’s more relevant. nent is, either. Any Democrat would have a plausible chance of winning tic about the war, but have differences If I had a choice of knowing who the Democratic nomination, and would with how the president has conducted the Democratic nominee was going be perfectly capable of winning. it, that’s very different. to be or what the economy is looking And John Kerry and Dick like in 2004, particularly in the second It’s only if it’s in that narrow Gephardt are yet different again. quarter of 2004—because we know “maybe” zone, where the voters are from history that it’s the second not sure if a president deserves So, it depends on who the quarter economic statistics that are the reelection; they’re not sure they have Democratic candidate is. best predictors of how an incumbent confidence in the president for the I think what you’ll probably see president is going to do—I would next four years, and only then is the is more Democrats saying that it’s rather know that, not just what’s the identity and the caliber of the oppo- great that Saddam Hussein has been gross domestic product growth rate, nent really relevant. captured and brought to justice, and but also what’s the unemployment rate, I tend to think that that “maybe” this is a good thing, but that we what’s the employment number, and zone in the middle may be where probably should have waited for how does that number compare to we’re headed, because I think it’s greater, more widespread international January 2001, and what’s the degree of unlikely that the situation in Iraq will participation, that we shouldn’t have under-employment of people that have be significantly better.