• GIS BASED SEISMIC DAMAGE ASSESS:MENT: A CASE STIJDY • ON RAJSHAHI CITY By !vIOHAMMAD JOBAIR A thesis submilled /0 the Department of Urban and Regional Planning. Bangladnh University of EnpneU/flK and Technology, BUF.! In partialfulfillmem of/hi: n:qlllrememsjor the degree Of MASTER OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNTl\"G • I --. -,~- -- • January 2006 , The thesis titled GIS Based Seismie Damage Assessment: A Case Study on Rajshahi City, Submitted by Mohammad Jobair, Roll No 040315019F, Session April 2003 has been aecepted as satisfactory in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Urban and Regional Planning on January 2006. BOARD OF EXAMINEERS -li ,"""" .~~~ V'=n~ (Dr K. M. Maniruzzaman) ::J-(O/ ItJ7., Chairman Professor (Supervisor) Department of Urban and Regional Planning BD"ET, Dhaka 1000 272.LJ 4 ..J A.v.., (Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansarv) Member Associate Professor (Co-sllpervisor) Department of Civil Engineering BVEI, Dhaka 1000 ":U,.-..;) ~~~ (Dr K M. Maniruzzaman) Member H,od (Ex-Officio) Department of Urban and Regional Planning Bl'ET, Dhaka 1000 ~) Member Professor Department ofUman and Regional Planning BDET, Dhaka 1000 Ms Iwat Islam Member Assistant Professor Department ofUman and Regional Planning BVEI, Dhaka 1000 ~1Ii'k Member Senior Structural Engineer (Eldemal) 304 Concord ManOT,HOllOO48,Road 15A Dhanmondi RIA, Dhaka 1209 II , CANDIDATES DECLARATION Il is hereby declared that this thesis or any part of it has not been submitted elsewhere for the award of any degree Of, diploma. Mohammad Jobair ill ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS All praises to Allah, the merciful and the kind. The author expresses his heartiest appreciation to his supervisor, Dr. K. M. Maniruzarnan, Professor and Head, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, BVET. and co-supervisor Dr. Mdll,Ji Ahmed Ansary, Associate Profcssor. Department of Civil Engineering, RliET I()r theIr eontinlling encouragement and guidance in the study. Their valuable suggestions and advice ,,,,rked 3.', key to open the path of the study. The author is also grateful to Prof. Dr. Samar Jahan, AssL Prof. Ms. lshrat [slam and Engr. Dr. Ali Akbar MolJik for their valuable suggestions and recommendations on the board. The author is privileged to express his sincere grntitude to Mr. Gholam Mustafa. Soil Scientist, Expert Soil Engineers Ltd. and Mr. Ashraf Ali Bishwas, Managing Director of Structural Engineers and Planners, Ltd for their inspiration and co-opcration in collecting secondary information. The author expresses his grateful thanks to CASR, BUET for fimding this research and to scveral individuals and friends, to the memben; of different Government and Non-govenunent organizations specially Geological Swvey of Bangladesh, Rajshahi City Corporation, Rajshahi Developmcnt Authority for giving valuablc advice throughout the development of this research. IV 'ABSTRACT For accomplishing comprehensive regional seismic damage assessment, Geographical Information System (GIS) provides a perfect environment, GIS has the capability to store, manipulate, analyze and display the large amount of required spatial and tabular data. This study intends to carry out regional seismIc damage assessment for the Rajshahi City using geographic Information system. where reflection of ground shaking and the secondary site attnbutes of soil amplificalion and liquefaclion are the salient features The melhod to combine the different hazards is based on a weighted average applORch A soil database from 50 boreholes was used to develop site amplification and soil liquefaction potential maps ufthe study area. Bolh of these site effects are integrated in Geographical Information System platfonn for combined hazard assessment, Three past historical earthquakes were assessed as scenario events namely the 1885 ~engal earthquake, the 1897 Greallndian earthquake and the 1930 Dhubri earthquake, Intensily value obtained for these events is' calibrated against attenuation laws to check the applicability ofthe laws for the study. Finally, the Great Indian Earthquake of 1897, with the attenuation law of McGuire (1978) was chosen as the scenario earthquake. as it shows highest bed lOck PGA (0,06340) PGA value is converted into },ill] values to integrate the effect of site amplification as well as liquefaction and then combined hazard map is proposed for this study area, Only for ground shaking, approximately II percent buildings are ~1;imated to be damaged, Again for ground shaking and liquefaction, approximately 15 percent buildings are estimated to be damaged Some major critical facilities are idelllified that are the most vulnerable as they fall under VIIl-MM]! EMS Intensity hazard zone. Based on soil (natural) frequency some zones are suggested for building height restrictions using thumb rules, According to soil liquefaction analysis particular zones are identified where groL1ndimprovementis suggested, • v Table of Contents Page No. List of Tables X List of Figures XII List of Appendiccs IX Acknowledgement IV Abstract V Chapl"r One; Introduction 1,1 Rackground 1,2 Objectives with Specific AIm and Possible Outcome 3 1.3 Conceptualization 4 1.4 Outline oflhe Methodolob'Y 4 1.5 The Study Area' Rajshahi City Corporation 5 1.5,1 The groMh of the city 5 1.5,2 Demographic Changc 6 1.53 Geology and Soil 7 1.5 4 General Topography, Natural Drainage 9 and Natural Fault 1,5.5 Land use pattern 9 I 5.6 Climate 10 1.6 GIS and Seismic Damage Assessment 10 1.6 1 Understanding GIS II 1.6.2 Tools for Analysis and Modeling 12 1.6,3 Function of GIS in this study 13 1,7 -,Organization of the Study l4 ._.. ~~ 1,8 J .-43a'Sic Assumptions and Limitations 16 Chapter Two; Literature Review , .' 2.1 EarthqtJ~e'FtJlldamentals IS 2.2 Principal types of seismic wav"s 18 2.3 Regional Tectonics 21 2.4 Seisrno-tectonic Setup 22 VI , 2.5 Major Seismic Sources 2.6 Historical Earthquakes Fell in Rajshahi City 27 2.6.1 The Bengal Earthquake 1885 27 2.6.2 The Great Indian Earthquake 1897 27 2.6.3 The Dhubri Earthquake 1930 28 2,7 Seismic Zoning Map :l.S Relationship Bdv>een Sh~ar Wave Vdocity (V,l 'lnd 31 sp r (N) value ., 2.9 Ancnuation Law or P"ak Gwund Acceleration '- 2.10 Soil Amplification 33 2.10.1 Research ElTortson Soil Amplification 33 2.10.2 Analysis Method for Amplification 34 2.11 Sod Liquefaction 37 2.11.1 Causes of Liquefaction 37 2.11.2 Liquefaction Potential Based on N-valucs 38 2.12 Damage Distribution 44 2.12.1 Definition of Damage 44 2.12.2 Fragility Cun'es for Bangladesh: MOUOll" 45 Damage Relationship Chapter Three: BlUic Data Colledion 3.1 Updated Administrative Boundary ofRCC Area 47 3,2 RCC Buill-UP Areas 47 3.3 Poor Housing Areas 48 3.4 Buildmg Types Based on Construction 49 3.5 Building inventory 50 3.6 Forecasting of Building Types According to EMS 53 3.7 Soil Data (SPT-!I') from Primary & Secondary 54 Sources 3.8 GroUlld Water Data 54 Ch.pter Four: Seillmle Hazard Analysis 4.1 EstimationofBedrockLevelPGA " vn '". 4.2 Site Amplification Analysis 60 4.3 Liquefaction Analysis 68 Chapter Five: Seismic Hazard Integration 5 1 Hazard and Integration 73 5.2 Integration of Site Effects in GIS Environment 73 Chapler Si~; Seismic Damagl."Assessment 6 I Fundamentab of Damage Assessment R7 62 Damage Assessment for BlIiJdings 87 6.2 1 Damage Estimation Based on Analysis I 89 (lv/1Yilo,,) 62.2 Damage ESllmation Based on Analysis 2 90 (AfM!F) Chapter ~en: Urban Development and Seismic Risk. 7, I Introduction 104 72 Existing Land use Under Risk 104 7.3 Evaluation of RMDP (2004-2024) ",jth Respect to 105 Seismic Risk 7.4 Suggested Zones of Building Height Restrictions 105 7.5 Zones where Ground Improvement is Suggested 106 7,6 Other Recommendations for Risk Mitigation 107 Chapter Eight: Conclusion 8. j Overview of the Research 113 8.2 Recommendations 114 8.3 Scope for Further Research II 5 References 116 VIlI List of Appendices Page No. AppendiI-A Eanhquake Chronology of Bangladesh 12] AppendiI-B Building Inventory Format 126 AppendiI-C European Macro Seismic Scale 127 AppendiI-D Modifled Marcelli Scale offell lntensily 134 AppendiI-E Building Typologies of Rajshahi City 136 AppcndiI-F Borehole Data 13 7 IX List of Tables Page No. Table 1.1 Urban growth in the Rajshahi Region 7 Table 1.2 Existing Land use ofRajshahi City Corporation area 10 Table 2.1 Great historical earthquakes In and around Bang[adesh 23 Table 2.2 Significant SeJSmlC sources and maximum likely 26 eanhquake magnitude in Bangladesh (Bolt. (987) Table 2.3 Operational basis earthquake, maximum crcdiblc 26 Earthquakc and depth offocus of earthquakes for different seismic sources (after Ali and Chowdhury, [992) Table 2.4 Magnitude, EMS Intensities and distances of some major 26 historical earthquakcs around Rajshahi City (after Ansary, 2001) Table-2.5 Empirical Relations Correlating SPI N-value and Shear- 29 wave Velocity Table 2.6 Published Attenuation Laws ]0 Table3.l Housing Type Changes Within the RCC area, 198 [- I991 49 Table 3.2 Wall and RoofMateria[s ofRCC Area, 1991 49 Table 3.3 Housing Types of RCC Area According to ReofMaterials, 50 [991 (after Is[am, 2005) Table 3.4 Definition of building typologies III Rajshahi City 51 Corporation Table 3.5 Building distribution pattern according to EMS in Rajshahi 53 City, 2005 Table 3.6 UpaziJlawise record of water level at specified WDB 54 wells, 1982 (GSB, 1991) Table 4.1 Some historical earthquakes with their intensities, 57 epicentral distance and focal depth at Rajshahi City (Sabri, 2001) Table 4.2 Shear Wave Velocities at different locations of Rajshahi 58 City Table 4.3 PGA values ("10 of g) at Rajshahi