Nuclear Power in an Age of Uncertainty February 1984 NTIS order #PB84-183953 Recommended Citation: Nuclear Power in an Age of Uncertainty (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTA-E-216, February 1984). Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 84-601006 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Foreword This report responds to a request by the House Committee on Science and Tech- nology, with the endorsement of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, to assess the future of nuclear power in this country, and how the technology and in- stitutions might be changed to reduce the problems now besetting the nuclear option. The report builds on an earlier OTA report, Nuclear Powerplant Standardization, and complements a current report, Managing Commerical High-Level Radioactive Waste. The present nuclear era is drawing to a close. The cover of this report show Unit I of the Washington Public Power Supply System, which was indefinitely, perhaps per- manently, deferred even though it was 60 percent complete and $2.1 billion had been invested. This plant and others such as Zimmer and Marble Hill epitomize the difficuIties facing the nuclear industry. It is important to remember, however, that other nuclear plants have been very successful and produce reliable, low cost electricity. The future of nuclear power poses a complex dilemma of policy makers. It has advantages that may prove crucial to this Nation’s energy system in the coming decades, but at pres- ent it is an option that no electric utility would seriously consider. OTA examined questions of demand growth, costs, regulation, and public accept- ance to evaluate how these factors affect nuclear power’s future. We reviewed research directions which could improve conventional light water reactor technology and op- portunities to develop other types of reactor concepts that might enhance safe and reliable operation. In addition, the crucial role of utility management in constructing and operating nuclear powerplants is examined at length. The controversy about nuclear safety regulation is also analyzed, and is presented with a review of current proposals for regulatory reform. Finally, the study discusses policy approaches that could assist a revival of the nuclear option should that be a choice of Congress. In the course of this assessment, OTA drew on the experience of many organiza- tions and individuals. In particular, we appreciate the generous assistance of our dis- tinguished advisory panel and workshop participants, as well as the efforts of the proj- ect’s consuItants and contractors. We would also like to acknowledge the help of the numerous reviewers who gave their time to ensure the accuracy and comprehensiveness of this report. To all of the above goes the gratitude of OTA, and the personal thanks of the project staff. Director The Future of Conventional Nuclear Power Advisory Panel George Rathjens, Chairman Center for International Studies Jan Beyea Arthur Porter National Audubon Society Belfountain, Ontario Richard Dean David Rose General Atomics Corp. Massachusetts Institute of Technology George Dilworth Lee Schipper Tennessee Valley Authority Lawrence Berkely Labs Linn Draper James Sweeney Gulf States Utilities Energy Modeling Forum Stanford University Fritz Heimann General Electric Co. Eric Van Loon Union of Concerned Scientists Leonard Hyman Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Observers Robert Koger North Carolina Utilities Commission James K. Asselstine ‘U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Myron Kratzer International Energy Associates, Ltd. Thomas Dillon U.S. Department of Energy Byron Lee Commonwealth Edison Victor Gilinsky U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Jessica Tuchman Mathews World Resources Institute Reviewers Institute for Nuclear Power Operations Arizona Public Service Co. Ralph Lapp, Lapp Inc. William R. Freudenburg, Washington State Yankee Atomic Electric Co. University Long Island Lighting Co. Paul Slovic, Decision Research Public Service Co. of Indiana Steven Harod, Department of Energy Cincinnati Gas & Electric John Taylor, Electric Power Research Institute Pacific Gas & Electric Atomic Industrial Forum Washington Public Power Supply System Stone & Webster, inc. Office of the Governor, Washington State Bechtel Power Corp. Oregon Department of Energy Save the Valley Bonneville Power Administration Congressional Research Service Portland General Electric iv OTA Future of Nuclear Power Project Staff Lionel S. Johns, Assistant Director, OTA Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Richard E. Rowberg, Energy and Materials Program Manager Alan T. Crane, Project Director Mary Proctor (Economic and Commercial Issues) Patricia S. Abel (Technical, Operational, and Regulatory Issues) Margaret Hilton (Public Acceptance) Jenifer Robison (Regulations) Administrative Staff Lillian Quigg Edna Saunders Contributors Warren Donnelly, Congressional Research Service Thomas Cochran, Natural Resources Defense Barbara G. Levi, Consultant, Colts Neck, N.J. Council John Crowley, United Engineers & Contractors, Todd LaPorte, University of California at Berkeley Inc. E. P. Wilkinson, Institute for Nuclear Power Alfred Amerosi, Consultant, Downers Grove, Ill. Operations James J. MacKenzie, Union of Concerned Arvo Niitenberg, Ontario Hydro Scientists Mark Mills, Science Concepts Joanne Seder, Office of Technology Assessment Richard Lester, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Contractors Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Term. Terry Lash, Weehawken, N.J. Sanford Cohen & Associates, McLean, Va. NUS Corp., Gaithersburg, Md. Pickard, Lowe & Garrick, Inc., Washington, D.C. ENSA, Inc., Rockville, Md. Komanoff Energy Associates, New York MHB Technical Associates, San Jose, Calif. Science Concepts, Vienna, Va. Eliasanne Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. William J. Lanouette, Washington, D.C. OTA Publishing Staff John C. Holmes, Publishing Officer John Bergling Kathie S. Boss Debra M. Datcher Joe Henson Glenda Lawing Linda A. Leahy Cheryl J. Manning Workshop l—The Economic Context for Nuclear Power Clark Bullard, Chairman Mark Mills University of Illinois Science Concepts Jack Barkenbus David Moulton Institute for Energy Analysis Energy Conservation Coalition Charles Berg Keith Paulson Buckfield, Maine Westinghouse Electric Corp. Carleton D. Burtt Doan Phung The Equitable Life Assurance Society of the Oak Ridge Associated Universities United States Paul Riegelhaupt Gordon Corey Stone & Webster, Inc. Evanston, Ill. Marc Ross John Crowley University of Michigan United Engineers & Constructors, Inc. Philip Schmidt James Edmonds University of Texas at Austin Institute for Energy Analysis Milton Searl Victor Gilinsky Electric Power Research Institute U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission James Sweeney Eric Hirst Energy Modeling Forum Oak Ridge National Laboratory Stanford University Leonard Hyman Vince Taylor Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Richford, Vt. Henry Kelly Jon Veigel Office of Technology Assessment Alternative Energy Corp. Robert Koger James Walker North Carolina Utilities Office of the commissioners Charles Komanoff Alvin Weinberg Komanoff Energy Associates Oak Ridge Associated Universities Mark Levine John Williams Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Annapolis, Md. Lynn Maxwell Tennessee Valley Authority Workshop n-Technology, Management and Regulation Harold Lewis, Chairman Arthur Fraas University of California at Santa Barbara Institute for Energy Analysis James K. Asselstine Jerry Griffith U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission U.S. Department of Energy Lynne Bernebei Saul Levine Government Accountability Project NUS Corp. Dale Bridenbaugh Fred Lobbin MHB Technical Associates SC&A, Inc. Robert J. Budnitz James MacKenzie Future Resources Associates, Inc. Union of Concerned Scientists Sanford C. Cohen Mark Mills SC&A, Inc. Science Concepts John Crowley Keith Paulson United Engineers & Constructors, Inc. Westinghouse Electric Corp. Peter R, Davis Daniel Prelewicz Intermountain Technologies, Inc. ENSA, Inc. Thomas G. Dignan, Jr. George Rathjens Ropes & Gray Center for International Studies Richard Eckert Robert Renuart Public Service Electric & Gas CO. Bechtel Power Corp. Colin R. Fisher David Rose General Atomics Corp. Massachusetts Institute for Technology vi Alan Rosenthal Alvin Weinberg U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Institute for Energy Analysis R. P. Schmitz Abraham Weitzberg Bechtel Power Corp. NUS Corp. Irving Spiewak Bertram Wolfe Institute for Energy Analysis General Electric Sharon Thompson Edwin Zebroski SC&A, Inc. Institute for Nuclear Power Operations Robert E. Uhrig Florida Power & Light Workshop Ill—Institutional Changes and Public Acceptances Stephen Gage, Chairman John D. Long Northbrook, III. Indiana University James Asselstine R. P. MacDonald U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Alabama Power Co. Jack Barkenbus Roger Mattson Institute for Energy Analysis U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Edward A. Brown Eugene W. Myer New England Power Service Co. Kidder Peabody & Co., Inc. Michael Faden Keith Paulson Union of Concerned Scientists Westinghouse Electric Corp. Eldon Greenberg Irving Spiewak Galloway & Greenberg Institute for Energy Analysis Jay Hakes Linda Stansfield Office of the Governor of Florida N.J. League of Women Voters Fritz Heimann Linda Taliaferro General Electric Co. Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission Roger Kasperson Alvin Weinberg Clark University Institute for Energy Analysis Terry Lash Weehawken, N.J. Utility Executives