BANKING IN AFRICA : financing transformation amid uncertainty BANKING IN AFRICA financing transformation amid uncertainty 02/2020 – EN ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT Banking in Africa: financing transformation amid uncertainty Banking in Africa: financing transformation amid uncertainty © European Investment Bank, 2020 This is a publication of the EIB Economics Department. [email protected] www.eib.org/economics All rights reserved. All questions on rights and licensing should be addressed to [email protected]. European Investment Bank 98-100, boulevard Konrad Adenauer – L-2950 Luxembourg +352 4379-1 [email protected] www.eib.org twitter.com/eib facebook.com/europeaninvestmentbank youtube.com/eibtheeubank eBook: QH-02-20-012-EN-E ISBN 978-92-861-4493-6 doi: 10.2867/956074 pdf: QH-02-20-012-EN-N ISBN 978-92-861-4495-0 doi: 10.2867/306682 About the report The Banking in Africa report is a product of the EIB Economics Department providing an analysis of recent development in the African banking sectors and specific structural topics of relevance. It combines in house research with contribution from leading market experts from commercial banks operating in the region, IFIs and other institutions. About the EIB Economics Department The mission of the EIB Economics Department is to provide economic analyses and studies to support the Bank in its operations and in the definition of its positioning, strategy and policy. The Department, a team of 40 economists, is headed by Debora Revoltella, Director of Economics. Main contributors to this year’s report Report Directors: Barbara Marchitto and Debora Revoltella. Report Coordinator: Jean-Philippe Stijns. Communication Editor: Daniel Berze, under the direction of Valentina Kalk, Head of Publications. Executive Summary: Debora Revoltella Chapter 1: Jean-Philippe Stijns Chapter 2: Frank Betz, Andreas Kappeler (European Commission) and Mohammed Salim Bennani (BMCE Bank of Africa/Institute of Africa) Chapter 3: Emmanouil Davradakis, Nina Fenton, Claudio Cali, Ismail Madih (BMCE Bank of Africa/Institute of Africa) and Joseph Nnanna (Development Bank of Nigeria) Chapter 4: Jean-Philippe Stijns, Jad Benhamdane (BMCE Bank of Africa/Institute of Africa) and Said Hidane (BMCE Bank of Africa/Institute of Africa) Chapter 5: Ricardo Santos, Jared Osoro (Kenya Bankers Association Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy®) Chapter 6: Sanne Zwart and Stuart Theobald (Intellidex) Chapter 7: Jean-Philippe Stijns, David Morgant, Guy Menant (Making Finance Work for Africa), Arthur Minsat (OECD Development Centre) and Thang Nguyen Quoc (OECD Development Centre) Chapter 8: Sanne Zwart, Giovanni Munoz, Lara Anna Chhatwal (GIZ), Bastian Domke (GIZ), Julia Kirya (GIZ), Hugues Kamewe Tsafack (Making Finance Work for Africa) and Lisa Peterlechner (Consultant on behalf of GIZ) Chapter 9: Nina Fenton, Christoph Weiss, Jason Gagnon (OECD Development Centre) and Laura Wollny (Paris School of Economics) Chapter 10: Nina Fenton Acknowledgements Editing: Linguistic Services, European Investment Bank and SciencePod Coordination: Nathalie Gilson, Senior Operational Assistant, European Investment Bank Pamella Ahairwe, Federica Ambrosio, Richard Amor, David Ashiagbor, Moutalabi Baba Boukari, Dieter Bachlmair, Rafal Banaszek, Marc Bello, Tim Bending, Maya Berger, Rhoda Boadu, Federico Bonaglia, Antonin Calzarossa, Calliope Chalouva, Carmelo Cocuzza, Douglas Daura, Angus Downie, Karla Fallon, Sebastien Hay, Peter Haynes, Laurie Henkinbrant, Oliver Henniges, Claudia Huber, Hans-Harald Jahn, Zoe Jankel, Saliya Kanathigoda, Xenia Kanelliadou, Sabine Kayser, Yves Kra, Sónia Leonardo, Filipe Marques, Immaculada Martinez, Hugh McCormack, Hekkn Meijez, Arnaud Mertens, Céline Micard, Kristina Mikulova, Nikos Milianitis, Samuel Miquel, Gerry Muscat, Moussa Nakoulima, Faith Njoroge, Azande Ntanzi, Nicholas Nzioka, Tomek Olejnik, Alexandre Pegels, Adeline Pelletier, Sonia Plaza, Brian Power, Dilip Ratha, Walid Remmache, Eva Rømer, Robert Schofield, Markus Schulte, Inmaculada Soto Riba, Lilian Steinhäuser, Mamoun Tahri- Joutei, Tomas Tamosauskas, Sabine Tissot, David Verhofstadt, Jens Windel, Peter Zajc. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the EIB. CONTENTS Executive summary ............................................................................................................................ 1 1. Results from a survey of African banking groups .................................................................. 5555 2. Banking in North Africa: recent trends and developments ..................................................... 333 3. Banking in West Africa: recent trends and developments .................................................... 5151 4. Banking in Central Africa: recent trends and developments .................................................... 73 5. Banking in East Africa: recent trends and developments ....................................................... 101 6. Banking in Southern Africa: recent trends and developments ............................................... 117 7. Investing sustainably in Africa’s cities ..................................................................................... 137 8. Mobilising agricultural value chain financing in Africa: why and how .................................. 1159 9. Remittances and financial sector development in Africa ........................................................ 183 10. The European Investment Bank in Africa ................................................................................ 205 Executive summary This fifth full edition of the European Investment Bank’s study of banking sectors in Africa casts light on recent developments in the continent’s banking sectors and the policy options for all stakeholders. The chapters devoted to banking sector development in each sub-region have been enhanced compared to earlier editions, with greater focus being placed on micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSME) and on financial inclusion. Another objective of the 2020 edition of this study is to contribute to the EIB’s Africa Day on 27 February 2020 in Dakar, Senegal, in partnership with UN Habitat. In Africa, real GDP growth is set to remain relatively resilient despite persistent uncertainty in the global economy. Economic growth is projected to accelerate moderately in 2020, due to strengthening demand, but it is expected to be held back on a longer-term basis by the slowing pace of reforms. The population growth rate means that GDP per capita will increase less than needed to ensure fast convergence with middle- and high-income economies, to make a significant dent into poverty and create enough jobs for the growing labour force. Inflationary pressures have eased and the average current account and government deficits are projected to decline, reflecting the recovery of commodity prices since their 2016 low and, in some countries, fiscal consolidation. The average debt situation of African countries shows signs of stabilisation, but there is a high risk of debt distress in several countries due to the high level of government debt, particularly non-concessional debt, and rising debt-servicing costs. There is a significant degree of heterogeneity across countries regarding the pace of recovery, medium-term prospects and debt sustainability. The economic performance of North Africa is improving. The economies of the region are expanding and GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.4% in 2020 and 2021. For some time, restoring macroeconomic stability was a primary concern for the national authorities. More recently, however, reforms to promote private sector development have been implemented. In the WAEMU zone, the economic outlook remains resilient. Real GDP growth is set to increase to 6.5% in 2020 from 6.4% in 2019 and to average 6.8% over 2021-2024. Growth in private investment and an increase in agricultural productivity are expected to sustain economic activity over this period. There is a risk of fiscal slippages ahead of the forthcoming elections in several countries in the WAEMU zone. The outlook for West African countries outside the WAEMU zone is mixed. The region’s largest economy, Nigeria, which accounts for two thirds of West Africa’s GDP, is expected to grow at around 2.5% in 2020. Growth rates are expected to average 2.6% over 2021- 2024. Ghana, on the other hand, is expected to grow at 5.6% in 2020, but faces a risk of fiscal slippage ahead of the 2020 elections. The main downside risks for the sub-region stem from significant uncertainty in the global economy and escalating trade protectionism, including in the region. The Nigerian economy remains highly vulnerable to any drop in oil prices. There has been a notable acceleration in economic activity in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) zone. Economic growth is projected to reach 3.0% in 2020 in the CEMAC. The IMF programmes agreed with all countries in the region are bearing fruit but the improvement in the fiscal situation comes against a background of many external risks that might undermine a scenario of gradual acceleration in growth. Economic growth is expected to remain solid across East Africa. GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 6% in 2020 and 2021, above the average of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as infrastructure investments across the region give an extra boost to domestic demand. Still, risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, mostly stemming from