EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS METHODOLOGICAL GUIDELINES VOLUME 1 International Institute for Educational Planning Layout : by Reg’ - www.designbyreg.dphoto.com ISBN: 978-92-806-4715-0 September, 2014 Nota bene The ideas and opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNESCO, UNICEF, the World Bank or the Global Partnership for Education. The designations used in this publication and the presentation of data do not imply that UNESCO, UNICEF, the World Bank or the Global Partnership for Education have adopted any particular position with respect to the legal status of the countries, territories, towns or areas, their governing bodies or their frontiers or boundaries. EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS METHODOLOGICAL GUIDELINES SECTOR-WIDE ANALYSIS, WITH EMPHASIS ON PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION VOLUME 1 International Institute for Educational Planning With the financial support of: Table of Contents 2 List of Examples 6 List of Tables 10 List of Figures and Maps 14 List of Boxes 16 Foreword 18 Acknowledgements 20 Acronyms and Abbreviations 22 Introduction 27 CHAPTER 1 33 CONTEXT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EDUCATION SECTOR Introduction 36 SECTION 1: THE SOCIAL, HUMANITARIAN AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXTS 37 1.1 The Evolution of the Total Population and the School-Aged Population 38 1.2 Basic Social Indicators 42 1.3 Impact of HIV/AIDS and Malaria on Education 45 1.4 The Composite Social Context Index 48 1.5 Linguistic Context 49 1.6 Humanitarian context 50 SECTION 2: THE MACROECONOMIC AND PUBLIC FINANCE CONTEXTS 51 2.1 GDP and GDP per Capita Trends 52 2.2 Public Resources 54 2.3 Public Expenditure 56 2.4 The Composite Economic Context Index 58 2.5 The Composite Global Context Index 59 2.6 Future Prospects 61 CHAPTER 2 65 ENROLMENT, INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN Introduction 69 SECTION 1: THE EVOLUTION OF ENROLMENT AND EDUCATION SYSTEM ENROLMENT CAPACITY 69 1.1 The Evolution of Enrolment 69 1.2 Evolution of Enrolment Capacity: Gross Enrolment Rate Computation 72 SECTION 2: SCHOOL COVERAGE: SCHOOLING PROFILES, SCHOOL LIFE EXPECTANCY AND EDUCATION PYRAMIDS 77 2.1 Schooling Profiles and Retention 77 2.2 School Life Expectancy 83 2.3 Education Pyramids 85 2 EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS METHODOLOGICAL GUIDELINES - Volume 1 INTRODUCTION SECTION 3: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES ON ACCESS AND RETENTION 87 3.1 Access-Related Supply and Demand 87 OF CONTENTS TABLE 3.2 Retention-Related Supply and Demand 93 3.3 Bottleneck Analysis 98 SECTION 4: INTERNAL EFFICIENCY 100 4.1 Repetition 101 4.2 Internal Efficiency Coefficient 107 SECTION 5: OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN 110 5.1 Estimation of the Share and Number of Out-of-School 110 5.2 Who are the Out-of-School Children? 115 CHAPTER 3 121 COST AND FINANCING Introduction 125 SECTION 1: PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE 127 1.1 Government Spending 127 1.2 Evolution of Public Expenditure by Type of Spending 131 1.3 The Distribution of Spending Across Sub-Sectors 132 1.4 Detailed Analysis of Public Recurrent Expenditure for the Most Recent Year 134 1.5 External Funding 140 SECTION 2: PUBLIC EDUCATION RECURRENT UNIT COSTS 143 2.1 Macro Estimation of Public Recurrent Expenditure per Pupil 143 2.2 Breakdown of Public Recurrent Unit Costs 148 2.3 Analysis of the Status and Remuneration of Teachers 152 SECTION 3: HOUSEHOLD CONTRIBUTIONS TO EDUCATION 157 3.1 Private Unit Costs by Education Level 158 3.2 Education Cost-Sharing between the Government and Families 160 3.3 Breakdown of Average Private Unit Costs by Spending Item and Level 162 SECTION 4: THE COST OF SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE 164 CHAPTER 4 169 QUALITY, SYSTEM CAPACITY AND MANAGEMENT Introduction 173 SECTION 1: ASSESSMENT OF STUDENT LEARNING 174 1.1 National Examinations and Admissions Tests 175 1.2 National Learning Assessments 177 1.3 International Standardised Learning Assessments 178 1.4 Using Household Surveys and Literacy Levels as a Proxy Measure of Quality 180 SECTION 2: ANALYSIS OF SYSTEM CAPACITY 183 2.1 Evaluation of the Conversion of Resources into Results by Schools 183 2.2 Analysis of the Factors Associated with Learning Outcomes 185 2.3 The Analysis of Factors’ Cost-Effectiveness 193 2.4 Institutional Analysis 194 Sector-Wide Analysis, with Emphasis on Primary and Secondary Education 3 SECTION 3: MANAGEMENT OF TEACHERS 197 3.1 Quantitative aspects of the management of teachers 197 3.2 Qualitative aspects of the management of teachers 205 SECTION 4: THE MANAGEMENT OF OTHER RESOURCES AND OF TEACHING TIME 215 4.1 Management of resources other than teachers 215 4.2 Monitoring Effective Teaching Time 218 CHAPTER 5 227 EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY Introduction 230 SECTION 1: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EDUCATION 232 1.1 Description of the Labour Market 232 1.2 Labour Market Structure and Dynamics 235 1.3 Employability of Education System Leavers and Graduates 239 1.4 Economic Return of Different Education Levels 244 1.5 The Training-Employment Balance (Macro Approach) 246 1.6 Anticipation of Future Labour Market Needs 249 SECTION 2: THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF EDUCATION 252 2.1 The Choice of Social Development Variables 252 2.2 Estimation of the Net Effects of Education 255 2.3 Consolidation of the Net Social Effect of Education 261 CHAPTER 6 267 EQUITY Introduction 269 SECTION 1: EQUITY IN ENROLMENT AND LEARNING ACHIEVEMENTS 273 1.1 The Absolute Gap in Performance between Two Groups 274 1.2 The Parity Index 275 1.3 The Parity Line 277 1.4 Scatter Charts 278 1.5 Maps 279 1.6 Social Mobility Tables 281 1.7 Odds Ratios 283 1.8 Marginal Effects and Odds Ratios Based on Econometric Models 284 SECTION 2: MEASURING EQUITY IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC RESOURCES 288 2.1 The Structural Distribution of Public Education Resources 289 2.2 Distributive Equity in Public Education Expenditure: Social Disparities in the Appropriation of Education Resources and Benefit Incidence Analysis 299 4 EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS METHODOLOGICAL GUIDELINES - Volume 1 INTRODUCTION ANNEXES 307 OF CONTENTS TABLE GENERAL ANNEXES 308 Annex 0: Basic Elements of Econometrics 308 CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES 314 Annex 1.1: Demographic Data Quality and Corrections 314 Annex 1.2: Calculation of the Average Annual Growth Rate 319 Annex 1.3: Current and Constant Prices 320 Annex 1.4: Methodology of Calculation of the Composite Context Indexes 323 CHAPTER 2 ANNEXES 324 Annex 2.1: Assessing Internal Efficiency by Means of Cohort Analysis 324 Annex 2.2: Calculation Method for School Life Expectancy Based on Gross Enrolment Rates and average enrolment rates 329 Annex 2.3: Measuring Progress towards Universal Primary Education 331 Annex 2.4: The Schooling Profiles 338 CHAPTER 3 ANNEXES 346 Annex 3.1: Technical Note on the Adjustment of the Share of Recurrent Expenditure by Education Level According to Standard Cycle Durations 346 Annex 3.2: Sample Questionnaire to Collect Data on International Aid from Development Partners 348 Annex 3.3: Methodology for the Consolidation of Financial Data 350 CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES 360 Annex 4.1: Calculation of the R² Determination Coefficient with an Excel-type Spreadsheet 360 Annex 4.2: Teachers’ Socio-Professional Context: Dimensions to Consider 361 Annex 4.3: Sample Questionnaire to Appraise the Socio-Professional Teaching Context (To be adapted to each country context) 364 Annex 4.4: Modelisation of Primary Education Results 371 Annex 4.5: Correlation of Student and Teacher Characteristics with Learning Outcomes 373 Annex 4.6: Calculation of School Indices (the Performance Index, Resources Index and Efficiency Index), based on the Example of The Gambia 375 Annex 4.7: Computation of the School Value-Added Indicator 378 Annex 4.8: School profile, based on the Example of The Gambia 379 Annex 4.9: Flow of Exam Result Information, Cameroon 380 CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES 381 Annex 5.1: Methodology for the Estimation of Net Income, Expected Income and Rates of return 381 Annex 5.2: The Main Types of Survey Used in Labour Market Analysis 385 Annex 5.3: Selection of a Representative Sample for the Analysis of the Status of Education System Leavers in the Workplace 387 Annex 5.4: Graduate Tracer Studies 390 Annex 5.5: Interview Checklist for the Qualitative Analysis of Education Sector Institutional Steering Mechanisms for the Education-Training balance (to be adapted to country context) 393 Sector-Wide Analysis, with Emphasis on Primary and Secondary Education 5 CHAPTER 6 ANNEXES 394 Annex 6.1: Classification of Countries According to Primary Enrolment Gender Disparities, Comparing the Absolute Gap and the Gender Parity Index 394 Annex 6.2: The Respective Weights of Schooling Stages in Explaining Global Disparities in the Enrolment of Different Groups 396 Annex 6.3: Modeling/Simulation of the Schooling Profile According to the Socioeconomic Characteristics of Children 398 Annex 6.4: Equity in the Distribution of Education Inputs 399 Annex 6.5: Structural Distribution of Public Education Expenditure when Schooling Profile Data is Unavailable 401 Annex 6.6: Intermediate Computation of the Appropriation Index 404 LIST OF EXAMPLES EXAMPLE 1.1 40 EXAMPLE 2.1 70 (Demographic Context): The Demographic (Education System Structure): Structure Context of Côte d’Ivoire, 2010 of the Beninese Education System, 2010 EXAMPLE 1.2 44 EXAMPLE 2.2 71 (Social Context): (Evolution of Enrolment): Enrolment Trends Social Context of Malawi, 2010 by Level, The Gambia, 2000/01-2009/10 EXAMPLE 1.3 47 EXAMPLE 2.3 73 (HIV/AIDS Impact): The Impact of HIV/AIDS (GER Analysis): Gross Enrolment Rates, on Education, Congo, 2010 by Level and in International Context, Congo, 1986-2005