Research Report C O R P O R A T I O N MIRIAM MATTHEWS, ALYSSA DEMUS, ELINA TREYGER, MAREK N. POSARD, HILARY REININGER, CHRISTOPHER PAUL Understanding and Defending Against Russia’s Malign and Subversive Information Efforts in Europe For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3160. About RAND The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org. Research Integrity Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. 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Preface The increasing frequency and intensity of information aggression targeting the United States and its European allies demands more thorough consideration of concepts and practices for protecting against, resisting, and mitigating the effects of psychological manipulation and influence. In this report, RAND Corporation researchers describe apparent Russian efforts at using information to shape Russia’s operating environment, focusing on the European context; review and apply existing research on influence and manipulation to Russia’s efforts; and draw from existing practice to describe possible defensive approaches that United States European Command (USEUCOM) and its various inter- and intraorganizational partners, as well as international partners (gov- ernmental and nongovernmental), can use when defending against these actions. The research reported here was completed in June 2019 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. This research was sponsored by USEUCOM and conducted within the Interna- tional Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact infor- mation is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ................................................................................xxvii Abbreviations .......................................................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Study Tasks and Methodology ....................................................................... 1 Key Terminology ....................................................................................... 3 Organization of the Report ........................................................................... 3 CHAPTER TWO Framework for Conceptualizing Russia’s Malign or Subversive Information Efforts .............................................................................................. 5 Objectives Associated with Russia’s Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ................ 6 Variety of Information Efforts .......................................................................13 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................17 CHAPTER THREE Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures in Russia’s Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ............................................................................19 What Content Is Produced and Disseminated by Russia and Its Agents? .....................19 How Do Russia and Its Agents Manipulate Information? .......................................25 How Do Russia and Its Agents Disseminate Information? ......................................31 What Audiences Do Russian Malign or Subversive Information Efforts Target? .............37 What Vulnerabilities Do Russian Information Efforts Exploit? .................................41 Chapter Summary ................................................................................... 43 v vi Understanding and Defending Against Russia’s Malign and Subversive Efforts in Europe CHAPTER FOUR Application of Research on Influence and Manipulation to Russia’s Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ..............................................................45 Messages Produced by Russia and Its Agents ..................................................... 46 Information Manipulations by Russia and Its Agents ............................................51 Distribution Techniques..............................................................................58 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................61 CHAPTER FIVE Defending Against Malign or Subversive Information Efforts .............................65 Pathology of Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ..........................................65 Overview of Approaches to Defending Against Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ............................................................................................ 68 Practices for Defending Against Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ...................74 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................85 APPENDIXES A. Overview of Terms and Definitions ......................................................... 87 B. Scoping the Framework of Russia’s Malign or Subversive Information Efforts ......89 C. Russian Malign or Subversive Information Efforts in the Balkans ....................95 References ........................................................................................... 121 Figures and Tables Figures S.1. Framework of Apparent Strategic and Specific Objectives Motivating Russian Information Efforts ............................................................ xi S.2. Model of the Pathology of Russian Malign/Subversive Information Efforts ...................................................................................xxiv 2.1. Framework of Apparent Strategic and Specific Objectives Motivating Russian Information Efforts ............................................................. 7 2.2. Framework of the Variety of Russian Information Efforts .........................15 4.1. Factors That Might Contribute to Susceptibility to Persuasive Attacks ..........55 5.1. Model of the Pathology of Russian Malign/Subversive Information Efforts .................................................................................... 66 Tables S.1. Types of Content Disseminated by Russia and Its Agents .........................xiii S.2. Information Manipulation Techniques Used by Russia and Its Agents .......... xiv S.3. Russian Dissemination Techniques ....................................................xv S.4. General Purposes of Defensive Practices ............................................ xxv S.5. Summary of Defensive Practices That Target Production of Content .......... xxv S.6. Summary of Defensive Practices That Target Distribution of Content .........xxvi 1.1. Key Terms and Brief Definitions ....................................................... 4 3.1. Types of Content Disseminated