UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA FACULTY OF ECONOMICS MASTER’S THESIS AN ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CRISIS CONSEQUENCES AND THE IMPACT OF SUBSEQUENT REGULATORY REFORMS ON THE SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE EU FROM 2007 TO 2015 Ljubljana, March 2018 KRISTIAN JEREBIČ AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT The undersigned Kristian Jerebič, a student at the University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, (hereafter: FELU), author of this written final work of studies with the title An analysis of financial crisis consequences and the impact of subsequent regulatory reforms on the systemically important financial institutions in the EU from 2007 to 2015, prepared under supervision of Marko Košak, PhD. 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Ljubljana, ________________________ Author’s signature: _________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 1 EXCURSION INTO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007/08................................. 4 1.1 Banking basics ........................................................................................................ 4 1.1.1 The purpose of FIs ........................................................................................... 4 1.1.2 Types of banks ................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Conflicts of interest in banking ............................................................................... 6 1.3 Securities trading .................................................................................................... 6 1.4 Off-balance sheet activities ..................................................................................... 7 1.5 The originate to distribute model ............................................................................ 8 1.5.1 The pre-crisis real estate market in the USA ................................................... 8 1.5.2 Securitization ................................................................................................. 10 1.6 Capital adequacy regulation .................................................................................. 13 1.6.1 Basel .............................................................................................................. 13 1.6.1.1 Basel I ..................................................................................................... 13 1.6.1.2 Basel II ................................................................................................... 14 1.6.2 Supervision .................................................................................................... 16 1.7 The great recession in a nutshell ........................................................................... 16 2 REFORMS OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM TO ENSURE BETTER BANKS’ SOLVENCY ................................................................................................................ 17 2.1 Basel III ................................................................................................................. 17 2.1.1 The European Union ...................................................................................... 19 2.1.1.1 Capital requirement directive ................................................................. 19 2.1.1.2 Supervision, Resolution, Insurance: Pillars of the European banking union ................................................................................................................ 21 2.2 SIFIs: Criteria and special regulation ................................................................... 23 2.3 Criticism of Basel III with the emphasis on the SIFIs .......................................... 28 3 INTRODUCTION TO STUDIES CONDUCTED ON THE SIFIS SUBJECT MATTER .................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.1 Past studies .................................................................................................... 31 3.1.2 The current studies......................................................................................... 32 i 3.1.3 Highlights ...................................................................................................... 35 4 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 36 4.1 Variables tested: Hypotheses and the descriptive statistics ............................ 37 4.1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 37 4.1.2 Hypotheses .................................................................................................... 40 4.1.3 Descriptive statistics ...................................................................................... 41 4.1.3.1 Total regulatory capital – Capital ratio ................................................... 41 4.1.3.2 Asset-based variables .............................................................................. 43 4.1.3.3 Income-based variables ........................................................................... 48 4.1.3.4 Equity-based variables ............................................................................ 51 4.1.3.5 Macroeconomic conditions: Real per capita GDP growth ..................... 53 4.1.3.6 Results of Europe wide stress test in 2014 .............................................. 55 4.2 Methodology and the Empirical model ............................................................ 55 4.3 The hypotheses’ testing ...................................................................................... 58 4.3.1 Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) ............................................. 58 4.3.2 The results ..................................................................................................... 59 4.3.3 Interpretation of the results with possible implications ................................ 61 4.3.4 Shortcomings of the model ........................................................................... 63 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 65 REFERENCE LIST .......................................................................................................... 67 APPENDIXES ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. An Asset-backed security (simplified) ................................................................. 11 Figure 2. Incremental implementation of the minimum capital requirements (CRD IV) ... 21 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. List of variables tested in this paper ...................................................................... 40 Table 2. Average capital ratio (%), 2007-2015 ................................................................... 43 Table 3. The average total assets for the observed samples, 2007-2015 ............................. 44 Table 4. Average RWA/Total assets for the observed samples, 2007-2015 ....................... 45 Table 5. Average Gross Loans (€mil) for the observed samples, 2007-2015 ..................... 46 Table 6. Average Government securities for the observed samples, 2007-2015 ................ 47 Table 7. Average Net interest margin for each sample, 2007-2015 .................................... 49 Table 8. Average Net fees & Commissions/Average earning assets for each sample, 2007- 2015