Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi 24 (Özel Sayı):232-240, 2019 (Mustafa Kemal University Journal of Agricultural Sciences 24 (Special Issue):232-240, 2019) e-ISSN: 2667-7733 http://dergipark.org.tr/mkutbd 1st Int. Congress on Biosystems Engineering 2019 ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ/RESEARCH ARTICLE Mapping spatio-temporal tendencies of climate types in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) media: A case study in Şanlıurfa and its environs Ali Demir KESKİNER1 , Mahmut ÇETİN2 , Takanori NAGANO3 1Harran University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Structures and Irrigation, Şanlıurfa, Turkey. 2Cukurova University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Structures and Irrigation, Adana, Turkey 3Kobe University, Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Kobe, Japan MAKALE BİLGİSİ / ARTICLE INFO Ö Z E T / A B S T R A C T Makale tarihçesi / Article history: Aims: The primary objective of this study was to figure out spatio-temporal Geliş tarihi /Received:09.10.2019 tendencies of climate-types in Şanlıurfa town and its environs, located in Kabul tarihi/Accepted:16.12.2019 the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) area, through using Erinç Drought Index method. Methods and Results: Data sets consisting of long-term (1965-2018) Keywords: annual total precipitation as well as average annual maximum Erinç drought index, drought tendency temperature series of Şanlıurfa, Birecik, Akçakale, Ceylanpınarı, Siverek map, climate-type, GAP, GIS and Bozova meteorological stations -distributed unevenly over total Corresponding author: Ali Demir surface area of 19 242 km²- were obtained and utilized in order to KESKİNER calculate Erinç Drought Index (EDI) on a yearly basis. EDI time series of : [email protected] each station was divided into three non-overlapping and successive parts or periods, i.e. period-1 (1965-1981), period-2 (1982-1999), period-3 (2000-2018). The best fitting probability distribution models to the EDI series of each period were, in turn, determined by performing a regular frequency analysis procedure by Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of Fit Test at the 5% significance level. EDI having 50% probability was estimated for the three periods of each station by utilizing probability models determined exclusively for each predetermined period. Afterwards, regular grids with the size of 100 m by 100 m were established over the study area in GIS media. Ordinary-Kriging interpolation technique was employed to estimate index values at the grid points and to generate climate maps over the study area for the three successive periods. Conclusions: Based on the spatio-temporal tendencies map of climate types for 3 time periods, it was concluded that the spatio-temporal climatic characteristics of Şanlurfa province is dominated as “Arid”, “Semi- arid” and “Sub-humid“ climate type from south to north, respectively, and areas of severe drought exposure expands northward along to Siverek in all three periods. Significance and Impact of the Study: Although Atatürk, Birecik, and Karkamış Dams tackle to mitigate drought expansion in the northwest, it is unlikely that it would prevent the spread of the future drought drifts because of global warming. It is strongly recommended that spatio- temporal climate change studies should be periodically conducted in tandem with forest management practices for the whole GAP area. Atıf / Citation: Keskiner AD, Cetin M, Nagano T (2019) Mapping spatio-temporal tendencies of climate types in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) media: A case study in Şanlıurfa and its environs. MKU. Tar. Bil. Derg. 24 (Özel Sayı) :232-240 MKU. Tar. Bil. Derg. / MKU. J. Agric. Sci. 2019, 24(Özel Sayı): 232-240 Araştırma Makalesi / Research Article INTRODUCTION 2016-2099. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the twin- river basins, i.e. Euphrates and Tigris basins, in The average weather conditions that persist over a Southeastern Anatolia will be affected mostly by climate region for many years are known as climate. In recent change (Demircan et al., 2017). In this context, long dry decades, changes in climate have caused adverse spells are expected in the Southeastern Anatolia Region impacts on natural and human systems in the continents in the future, and this will, in turn, affect different and across the oceans (Anonymous, 2014). The sectors (Birpınar and Tuğaç, 2018), particularly atmosphere and oceans have warmed, sea levels have agriculture. Moreover, the Southeastern Anatolia risen, and glaciers and ice sheets, in turn, have Project –one of the largest regional development decreased in size. The best available evidence of climate projects in Turkey, known universally as GAP (Cetin, change is unexpected high temperatures, and the main 2020)– was planned in this region. The effects of climate cause of it is ever increasingly greenhouse gas (GHG) change are reflected in air temperature and emissions induced by human activities (Anonymous, precipitation, which have a major impact on crop growth 2015). For millennia, atmospheric carbon dioxide and yields. These implications have posed water-related concentration has never been above 300 parts per problems in the GAP area of potentially 1.78 Mha million (ppm) up until 1950 (Anonymous, 2019a). The irrigable agricultural areas, of which 0.53 Mha has been greenhouse gas concentrations reached new highs, presently under irrigation (Cetin, 2020). Extent and globally averaged mole fractions of CO2 at 405.5 ppm. severity of problems is of spatio-temporal This, in turn, has had a significant impact on temperature characteristics. Therefore; determining the spatio- variations. Mankind experienced the fourth warmest temporal tendencies of climate types at different year on record between 2015-2018 as the long-term periods is of prime importance for monitoring climate warming trend has continued nowadays. Increases in change in the GAP area. Many methods have been average global temperatures are expected to be within developed to determine the climate class of a region. the range of 3°C to 5°C by 2100 (Anonymous, 2019b). However, each method has its own limitation, strengths Even if the global warming of an increase above 1.5°C as well as weaknesses to use under different climatic would bring far higher risks to health, livelihoods, food conditions. Erinç Drought Index, Percentage of Normal security, water supply, human security and economic Index, Standard Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought growth (Anonymous, 2018), humanity should find ways Severity Index, Thornthwaite and De Martonne methods of getting used to deleterious effects of global warming. (Aktaş et al., 2018) are among the frequently used ones Expansion of drought prone areas, as experienced in regional climate classification studies in Turkey. recently in Turkey, has been the result of climate change. Important information on the magnitude, severity, According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the frequency and areal extent of the drought can be derived Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), from those indices (Mishra and Singh, 2010). There is Turkey is located in the Mediterranean Basin that is doubt that spatio-temporal tendencies of climate classes especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate needs to be determined for different successive periods change (Anonymous, 2012). Almost all available studies in order to make reasonable inferences about regional agreed that Turkey will have significant climate change- changes in climate. induced problems such as the decrease in water quantity Staple objectives of this research were two-fold–namely, and quality, decreasing precipitation amounts, rising to develop Erinç Drought Index maps with the 50% annual temperatures, increases in frequency and probability level for the three predetermined sequential magnitude of the extreme weather events including time periods as well as to figure out spatio-temporal floods and droughts (Tonkaz, 2006; Tayanç et al., 2009; tendencies of climate-types in Şanlıurfa town and its Anonymous, 2011; Yılmaz and Imteaz, 2014; İrvem et al., environs. 2018 ). Despite the existence of an ongoing series of activities to research the potential results of global MATERIAL and METHODS climate change on a water-basin scale for river basins that are socio-economically important for Turkey, there Materials is, undoubtedly, a need for more scientific studies on This study was carried out in Şanlıurfa town and its these issues (Anonymous, 2011). In turn, according to environs, covering 19 242 km² area (Anonymous, 2019c), climate change projections regarding Turkey, it was located in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) area. anticipated that precipitation will have decreased Long-term (1965-2018) annual total precipitation and remarkably in all river basins of Turkey in the period of annual maximum temperature series of Şanlıurfa, 233 MKU. Tar. Bil. Derg. / MKU. J. Agric. Sci. 2019, 24(Özel Sayı): 232-240 Araştırma Makalesi / Research Article Birecik, Akçakale, Ceylanpınarı, Siverek and Bozova rendered possible by using universal transverse meteorological stations were utilized in the study (Figure Mercator (UTM) projection system with the datum of 1). Geo-referencing of meteorological stations was WGS84. Figure 1. Location of the study area in Turkey Methods where; Erinç drought index (EDI) Im: Erinç drought index, Erinç (1965) has developed a simple drought indicator P: Annual total precipitation (mm), for Turkey to describe the drought problem for Tmax_mean: Annual average maximum temperature