Research Report No. 22 ICRISAT Research Program Markets, Institutions and Policies Vulnerability to Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies and Layers of Resilience Agro-climatic analysis of Climatic Trends in Semi-Arid Tropics of India (Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra) Naveen P Singh, Kattarkandi Byjesh, Cynthia Bantilan, MVR Murty, VUM Rao, GGSN Rao, M Manikandan, D Harini ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium Science with a human face The International Crops Research ICRISAT-India (Headquarters) ICRISAT-Mali (Regional hub WCA) Institute for the Semi-Arid Patancheru 502 324 BP 320, Bamako, Mali Tropics (ICRISAT) is a non-profit, Telangana, India Tel +223 20 709200, Fax +223 20 709201 non-political organization that Tel +91 40 30713071 [email protected] Fax +91 40 30713074 conducts agricultural research for ICRISAT-Mozambique [email protected] development in Asia and sub-Saharan C/o IIAM, Av. das FPLM No 2698 Africa with a wide array of partners ICRISAT-Liaison Office Caixa Postal 1906, Maputo, Mozambique throughout the world. Covering 6.5 CG Centers Block, NASC Complex, Tel +258 21 461657, Fax +258 21 461581 million square kilometers of land in Dev Prakash Shastri Marg, New Delhi 110 012, India [email protected] Tel +91 11 32472306 to 08 55 countries, the semi-arid tropics ICRISAT-Niger Fax +91 11 25841294 have over 2 billion people, of whom BP 12404, Niamey, Niger (Via Paris) 644 million are the poorest of the ICRISAT-Ethiopia Tel +227 20722529, 20722725 poor. ICRISAT innovations help the C/o ILRI Campus, PO Box 5689 Fax +227 20734329 ICRISAT dryland poor move from poverty to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia [email protected] prosperity by harnessing markets Tel: +251-11 617 2541 ICRISAT- Nigeria while managing risks – a strategy Fax: +251-11 646 1252/646 4645 [email protected] PMB 3491 called Inclusive Market-Oriented Sabo Bakin Zuwo Road, Tarauni, Kano, Nigeria About ICRISAT-Kenya (Regional hub ESA) Development (IMOD). Tel: +234 7034889836; +234 8054320384, PO Box 39063, Nairobi, Kenya +234 8033556795 ICRISAT is headquartered in Tel +254 20 7224550, Fax +254 20 7224001 [email protected] Patancheru, Telangana, India, with [email protected] two regional hubs and six country ICRISAT-Malawi ICRISAT-Zimbabwe offices in sub-Saharan Africa. It is a Chitedze Agricultural Research Station Matopos Research Station member of the CGIAR Consortium. PO Box 1096, Lilongwe, Malawi PO Box 776, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe CGIAR is a global research Tel +265 1 707297, 071, 067, 057, Fax +265 1 707298 Tel +263 383 311 to 15, Fax +263 383 307 partnership for a food secure future. [email protected] [email protected] About ICRISAT: www.icrisat.org ICRISAT’s scientific information: http://EXPLOREit.icrisat.org 262-2012 Citation: Singh NP, Byjesh K, Bantilan C, Murty MVR, Rao VUM, Rao GGSN, Manikandan M and Harini D. 2013. Vulnerability to Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies and Layers of Resilience: Agro-climatic analysis of Climatic Trends in Semi-Arid Tropics of (Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra). Research Report no. 22. Patancheru 502 324, Telangana, India: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics. 152 pp. © International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), 2014. All rights reserved. ICRISAT holds the copyright to its publications, but these can be shared and duplicated for non-commercial purposes. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part(s) or all of any publication for non-commercial use is hereby granted as long as ICRISAT is properly cited. For any clarification, please contact the Director of Strategic Marketing and Communication at [email protected]. ICRISAT’s name and logo are registered trademarks and may not be used without permission. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice. Vulnerability to Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies and Layers of Resilience Agro-climatic analysis of Climatic Trends in Semi-Arid Tropics of India (Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra) Naveen P Singh, Kattarkandi Byjesh, Cynthia Bantilan, MVR Murty, VUM Rao, GGSN Rao, M Manikandan and D Harini Funding for this research was from the Asian Development Bank Science with a human face 2013 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. The rationale – semi-arid tropics of India ............................................................................. 3 1.2. How important is it to analyze past climate? ........................................................................ 3 2. Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 5 3. Semi-arid regions of India: General climatic characteristics ........................................................... 5 3.1. Rainfall distribution in SAT regions of India ........................................................................... 6 3.2. Seasonal rainfall distribution ................................................................................................. 7 3.3. Mean annual and seasonal rainy days in SAT region of India ................................................ 7 3.4. Distribution of maximum and minimum temperature .......................................................... 9 4. Agro-climatic analysis for Andhra Pradesh State .......................................................................... 13 4.1. Annual rainfall distribution ................................................................................................. 13 4.2. Seasonal rainfall distribution .............................................................................................. 15 4.3. Maximum and minimum temperature distribution ........................................................... 15 4.4. Length of the growing period .............................................................................................. 16 5. Agro-climatic analysis for Maharashtra state .............................................................................. 17 5.1. Annual rainfall distribution ................................................................................................. 17 5.2. Seasonal rainfall distribution .............................................................................................. 18 5.3. Maximum and minimum temperature distribution ........................................................... 18 6. Climatic trends and variability in study region ............................................................................. 21 6.1. Anantapur ........................................................................................................................... 21 6.2. Mahbubnagar ...................................................................................................................... 26 6.3. Akola .................................................................................................................................... 32 6.4. Solapur ................................................................................................................................ 38 7. Micro regional analysis ................................................................................................................. 43 7.1. Sub-district rainfall trend analysis at Anantapur and Mahbubnagar in Andhra Pradesh, and Akola and Solapur in Maharashtra ................................................... 43 7.2. Heavy rainfall analysis ......................................................................................................... 45 7.3. Trend analysis of maximum and minimum temperature ................................................... 45 7.4. Extreme temperature analysis ............................................................................................ 46 7.5. Meteorological drought analysis ......................................................................................... 47 7.6. Climatic types variations – Moisture regime ...................................................................... 51 7.7. Crop water requirements (for important crops) – Baseline, 2020 and 2050 ......................52 iii 8. Future projection of rainfall and temperature ............................................................................ 54 8.1. Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra States ........................................................................... 54 9. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 57 10. References .................................................................................................................................. 58 11. Appendixes ................................................................................................................................. 60 Figures Figure 1. Multi-functionality of agriculture in SAT regions of India. ................................................... 4 Figure 2. Mean annual rainfall distribution in SAT regions of India. ................................................... 6 Figures 3 and 4. Normal dates of onset and withdrawal of southwest monsoon over India. ............7 Figure 5. Seasonal rainfall distribution in SAT regions of