Greater Manchester’s Outline Business Case to tackle Nitrogen Dioxide Exceedances at the Roadside Analysis of Distributional Impacts Warning: Printed copies of this document are uncontrolled Version Status: DRAFT FOR Prepared by: Transport for APPROVAL Greater Manchester on behalf of the 10 Local Authorities of Greater Manchester Authorised by: Simon Warburton Date: 28th February 2019 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 3 Overview ............................................................................................................ 3 Assessment criteria ............................................................................................ 4 Key findings ....................................................................................................... 5 Summary of baseline socio-economic data ..................................................... 13 Mitigation and enhancement ............................................................................ 14 2 Introduction .................................................................................................... 15 Overview .......................................................................................................... 15 Strategic context .............................................................................................. 16 3 Baseline ......................................................................................................... 17 Study area ........................................................................................................ 17 Social groups ................................................................................................... 19 Key receptors ................................................................................................... 19 Population demographics ................................................................................ 21 Children ............................................................................................................ 22 Elderly .............................................................................................................. 25 Disability ........................................................................................................... 26 Low Income Households .................................................................................. 27 Gender ............................................................................................................. 28 Ethnicity ........................................................................................................... 31 Health ............................................................................................................... 33 Economy .......................................................................................................... 36 Employment ..................................................................................................... 48 Vehicle compliance and availability ................................................................. 51 Public Transport ............................................................................................... 54 Summary matrix ............................................................................................... 55 4 Air Quality ....................................................................................................... 56 Overview .......................................................................................................... 56 Methodology .................................................................................................... 58 Screening ......................................................................................................... 59 Assessment Criteria ......................................................................................... 60 Air Quality Assessment .................................................................................... 61 Air Quality Appraisal ........................................................................................ 68 Mitigation and enhancement ............................................................................ 78 Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................... 78 Limitations ........................................................................................................ 79 5 Health and Environment ................................................................................. 80 Overview .......................................................................................................... 80 Analysis of Distributional Impacts Draft for Approval 1 Key findings ..................................................................................................... 80 Key health and environmental concerns .......................................................... 81 Health and environmental issues screened out ............................................... 83 Summary of screening ..................................................................................... 85 Damage cost methodology .............................................................................. 86 Sensitivity Tests ............................................................................................... 96 Impact pathway methodology .......................................................................... 96 6 Affordability .................................................................................................... 98 Overview .......................................................................................................... 98 Methodology .................................................................................................... 99 Screening ....................................................................................................... 103 Assessment ................................................................................................... 106 Appraisal ........................................................................................................ 115 Methodology limitations ................................................................................. 121 7 Accessibility .................................................................................................. 122 Overview ........................................................................................................ 122 Methodology .................................................................................................. 123 Screening ....................................................................................................... 125 Assessment criteria ........................................................................................ 126 Accessibility Assessment ............................................................................... 127 Accessibility Appraisal ................................................................................... 143 Mitigation ........................................................................................................ 149 8 Severance .................................................................................................... 150 Overview ........................................................................................................ 150 Methodology .................................................................................................. 151 Severance Analysis ....................................................................................... 151 9 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 159 10 References ................................................................................................... 161 Analysis of Distributional Impacts Draft for Approval 2 1 Executive Summary Overview As set out in the Options Appraisal Report, two clean air options are proposed within the Greater Manchester Clean Air Plan (GM CAP), Option 5(i)/(ii)1 and Option 8. Option 5(i)/(ii) is broadly framed around a CAZ D scenario (including buses, coaches, taxis, Private Hire Vehicles (PHVs), Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), Light Goods Vehicles (LGVs) and private cars), whereas Option 8 is framed around a CAZ C scenario (the same as CAZ D but without private cars), both with variations on the standard CAZ classes and with proposed sunset periods. This report presents the results of the distributional impacts analysis of Option 5(i)/(ii) and Option 8. For the purpose of the analysis, the ten council districts of Greater Manchester were divided into 1,673 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs), as illustrated in Figure 4 (Appendix A). LSOAs are small geographical areas referred to by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and were used as the default spatial framework for the analysis of distributional impacts2. The analysis is structured around the key social and economic groups considered most likely to be impacted by the proposed clean air measures. The analysis aims to establish whether one group is being unfairly disadvantaged or advantaged by the options being proposed Within this report, consideration has been given to children, the elderly, the disabled, low income households, women, and the Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) community. In