WILSON QUARTERLY A NATIONAL REVIEW OF IDEAS AND INFORMATION WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Smithsoniun Institution Building Washington D.C. WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Director, James H. Billington Deputy Director, George Packard Created by Act of Congress in 1968 as an institute for advanced study and as a "living memorial" to the 28th President, the Wilson Center su ports serious scholarship and its interaction with the world of a.The Center-and The Wilson Quarterly-seek diversity of scholarly enterprise and of points of view. THE WILSON QUARTERLY Editor: Peter Braestrup Associate Editor (Essavs): Philio S. Cook wAssociate Editor (periodicals): Cullen Murph Associate Editor (Books): Lois Decker 0'~eifi Associate Editor (Production): Anna Marie Torres Assistant Editor: Fred Howard Contributing Editors: Beryl Lieff Benderly, Michael J. Glennon, Andrea MacLeod, Stuart A. Rohrer, Raphael Sagalyn, Alex Ward Editorial Assistant: Debra S. 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'a -n * k 8 : , " 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 hS 2, ,: 8, 8, 1, of its 500th anniversary, the If ,- tf ir A, ¥ 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2' 3 :, r -* >-'; ; Press is issuing a special cal- ., a, 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 endar boasting 13 of the finest 27 .U 29 30 31 Almanack illustrations: four in full color, including a Turner, Oxford Universitv Press eight engravings and a repro- duction of the original Almanack. o~.*~..**...*.~~~......~........e.~..~~~.*.~..~..e.~~..~.....~..~~.....~.......... wo: Oxford University Press : 16-00 Pollitt Drive NAME: : Fairlawn, N.J. 07410 ADDRESS: : Please send me___copies of : the OXFORD ALMANACKS CALENDAR (ISBN 0-1 9-211567-7), CITY: : spiral bound and individually : packaged, at $6.95 each. My check for $ , plus 75C STATE : ZIP: postage and handling, is enclosed. California residents add appropriate sales tax. 77-012 : *. ~*ee..*.*e~..ee...*.a..*.....e..........~e.e..~....$.*.e..e....~a*...e..*..e.~.a Does this sound familiar? The price of oil ground, an Englishman named James Young rises from 43 cents a gallon to $2.55. Oil produc- found that paraffin could be extracted from pe- ers have to go farther and farther out to sea to troleum, coal, or shale. So much for the candle find new supplies, as exploration becomes less problem. Soon after, kerosene was developed as productive. People warn of the day when they will another oil derivative, one that could make lamps have to douse their lights to conserve oil. The cry burn brighter even than sperm oil, at less than goes up for alternative fuels. half the prlce. It all happened around 1850: The big dif- Price had a lot to do with it. The whale oil ference-the scarce fuel was whale oil, then the crisis taught the lesson of demand and supply in prevalent fuel for lamps. Instead of places like two ways. As whales became harder to find* the Alaska, the Gulf ot Mexico, and the North Sea, it cost of hunting them went up, and sodid the prce was the Atlantic off Nantucket that served as the of theoil, thus maintaining a market balance. And center of this country's "oil" exploration and when the price of whale oil became too steep, it production. created the incentive for finding alternative light Just as there are various grades of crude oil sources, such as kerosene and paraffin. today, whale oil came in different qualities. The Before long, refining plants sprang up in premium products were sperm oil and sperma- various parts of the United States. Even New ceti, a liquid wax found in the noses of the whale Bedford, where whaling had gone into decline, species now known as sperm whales. They were had a plant fueled by oil derived from coal. And, an elusive breed, because they fancied deep by 1879, Thomas A. Edison ended the kerosene water, and they gave rise to an industry that made lamp era with his incandescent light bulb. Sperm boom towns out of New England harbors such as oil, once a predominant fuel, was relegated to a New Bedford, Salem, Nantucket, and Mystic. And few specialized uses. Now, in the interest of gro- for good reason-sperm oil made lamps shine tecting nature, the sperm whale is listed as an brighter and spermaceti made it possible to man- endangered species by the U.S. government. ufacture smokeless candles. This case of deja vu contains some lessons Of somewhat lesser quality was ordinary for today. Sure, the nation faces an energy crisis, whale oil, most often derived from a species Certainly a workable energy program is needed, called right whales. The right whale was a slow particularly one that stresses research into new, swimmer, had thick blubber, and floated when alternative sources of energy. Just as kerosene dead. He was easier to catch and yielded large supplanted whale oil, the odds are that solar, nu- quantities of oil. clear, and other energy forms could some day You might say sperm oil and whale oil were take the place of petroleum if the technology is the nineteenth century equivalentsof "h~gh-test" there and the price incentive is there. and "regular:' What it takes is intensive research Into inno- Eventually, readily accessible reserves of vative energy forms and an even-handed ap- whale oil were depleted, prices rose,and, by the proach to nuclear power by which acceptable middleof thecentury, there wasgreat concern for safety and env~ronmentalstandards are ap- the future. plied-along with a national commitment to de- But at about that time, research and devel- veloplng coal and the petroleum resources that opment a la nineteenth century yielded results. remain. From the accidental finding of an oil seep in the History can repeat itself-if we let it. To order, circle the titles you'd like and send this to: American Enterprise Institute Name for Public Policy Research Address Department C City I150 Seventeenth Street, N.W. State Zip- Washington, D.C. 20036 Payment must accompany orders under $10. edited by R. Amann, J. M. Cooper, T11e Transfer of Yout11from Urban to and R. W. Davies Rural China In this book the present state of Soviet Thomas P. Bernstein technology and the changes in its relative Between 1968 and 1975 the People's ~ositionover the past fifteen or twenty Republic of China sent twelve million years are assessed by careful studies of urban middle and secondary school gradu- articular ind~~striesand products. ates to the countryside, evidently for life, 111~~.$30.00 in an effort to control urban growth and spur rural development. In the first detailed analysis of the program by a Western scholar, Bernstein presents care- fully documented information on what has Stanley W. 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