Financial Solutions for City Resilience (Cohort 2) 2nd Nyali Bridge PPP Viability Study (Mombasa, Kenya) Mark A. Smith July 2018 PPP Viability Studies: Approach and Methodology Infrastructure • High level assessment of the key economic activities / drivers of the Assessment cities and of the infrastructure that supports these economic activities Legal and • Review national and municipal legal regulatory and institutional Institutional conditions Reviews Site & • Support in identification of potential infrastructural challenges Infrastructure • Analyze site suitability in terms of ownership, resettlement and Evaluation relocation, infrastructure availability and utilities Demand supply & • Demand study to provide the basis for a conceptual design, an estimate Project description of the capital investment required and project revenues • Preparation of financial model, PPP project structure, comparative risk Viability matrix and value-for-money & affordability analyses Assessment • Preparation of preliminary project implementation plan Workshop and • Workshop to finalise contracting options Capacity Building • Assistance in development of capacity for PPP projects World Bank Group CRP: Markets Case Study 2 2nd Nyali Bridge PPP Viability Study © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Transaction Advisory Consortium In association with In conjunction with 4 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Feasibility Study Project Background and Objectives 5 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Introduction The Current Nyali Bridge • The existing bridge has served Mombasa for over 35 years. • Built in 1979 with financing from the Government of Japan. • Has provided the only direct link between the Mombasa North Coast Mainland and Mombasa Island. • Mombasa is Kenya’s second biggest city and East Africa’s largest sea port. 6 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Introduction Mombasa City: Sustaining Growth • Mombasa county has grown exponentially over the past four decades. • The population within Mombasa county is expected to rise beyond 1.2 million people by 2025. • This growth implies increased traffic, which will require sustainability Source: KNBS (Forecast by Deloitte Mombasa County Historical and Forecast Population based on 2012 Population Growth Rate of 2.7% provided by KNBS) 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 Population 400000 200000 0 1960 1990 2000 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2025F 7 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Introduction The 2nd Nyali Bridge: Project Importance • Mombasa has begun experiencing major traffic congestion, especially during rush hour times. • The city will require more accessibility to sustain population and economic growth. • Having a second direct access route between Mombasa Island and the Northern Mainland provides additional security. • A new bridge will ease congestion on the existing Nyali Bridge and the wider areas either side of Tudor Creek, help reduce wasted time and support Mombasa's economy. 8 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Introduction The 2nd Nyali Bridge: The Project • Development, Operation, and Maintenance of a 2nd Nyali Bridge • PPP Project • Expected to be tolled 9 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Mombasa: Other Projects Under Consideration Please note that these drawings were done on an approximate basis and 1. Northern do not provide as a true representation of the eventual developments or the views of any of the parties involved within them. By-pass 7 These are provided for example purposes only 2. Ferry 3. A109 4. Donga 3b Kundu 5. Likoni 1a Crossing 6. B8 1b Expansion 7. Mariakani Kilifi 6 8. Port Reitz 8 4a 3a 4b 5 4c 6 10 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Feasibility Study Traffic Analysis and Modelling 11 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Traffic Analysis Existing Nyali Bridge traffic • Some 50,000 trips daily across the Existing Nyali Bridge (excluding motorcycles and tuk tuks) • Close to its design capacity • AM and PM peaks Illustrate the importance of commuter traffic 12 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Traffic Analysis Travel Times Section Avg. Speed Malindi Rd (R1) 13 km/h Nairobi Rd (R2) 21 km/h Links Rd (R3) 18 km/h WB Travel Time Plot - Nyali To Town 40 30 3.2 km/h 20 Bridge Area AM Off-Pk [mins] 10 PM 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cumulative Travel Time Time Travel Cumulative Distance [km] Travel between Links/Malindi Rd junction to Saba Saba (8 km) takes up to 49 minutes (Speed over bridge: up to 3.2km/h) © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Traffic Modelling Future Volume Projections Undertaken using demand modelling on the basis of demographic and Historical Population Growth economic factors Factors considered: 780 553 • Population growth 447 384 332 • GDP growth 284 248 174 177 100 127 • Vehicle registrations 1962 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 • Price elasticity Kenya Mombasa • Transport sector output Growth 2035 Parameter 2013 Rate Values • Planned infrastructure /Port /Bypasses It is expected that traffic will be grow Population 1.04M 3.5% 2.95M by up to 2.0 times by the year 2035 Employment 0.9M 3.2% 1.69M 14 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Traffic Analysis and Modelling Conclusions • Traffic congestion already causes significant economic cost, with travel speeds as low as 6km/h. • Traffic over the existing Nyali Bridge has an AADT of 46,000, which is close to its design capacity • Traffic (if unconstrained) is projected to double in the next 20 years, which will cause significant further congestion and delays There is a pressing need for a new Nyali Bridge • The majority of trips over the Existing Nyali Bridge have an origin or destination in the CBD • A new bridge to the South of the Existing Nyali Bridge would yield the greatest traffic benefits, in terms of traffic operations and capacity, attracted volumes, travel time savings and network connectivity Traffic analysis points towards a Southerly bridge 15 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Feasibility Study Location Selection 16 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Location Selection Overview of Process Overview of Traffic Survey & High level Engineering / Analysis financial analysis ESIA Factors Longlisting of Potential Sites Shortlisting of Potential Sites Selection of Preferred Site and Project Scope 17 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Location Selection Started with a Long List of 8 potential sites 18 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Location Selection Reasons for rejecting certain longlisted options Option 4 Options 1 & 2 • Primary issue is • Not supported the feeder road by traffic network, not the analysis bridge • Difficult to link to • Does not create road network an additional link • Environmental impact on Tudor • Option 1 only: long bridge Option 7 (Old Nyali Bridge) • Sharp bend on Mombasa Island side not conducive to traffic flow Option 8 • Variants of Option 6 • Unacceptable impact on preferable Mombasa Old Town 19 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Location Selection Preferred Location Selected • The DG of KURA, Governor of Mombasa and TA Team Leader jointly announced the preferred location • Meetings were held with media, local residents, business representatives and political stakeholders • The selection of the preferred location was confirmed in a document signed by KURA, Mombasa County Government and Deloitte 20 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Feasibility Study Bridge Conceptual Design 21 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Bridge Conceptual Design Process for Selection of Bridge Structure Type • Following confirmation of the Preferred location of the 2nd Nyali Bridge, we assessed alternative structure types for the bridge: • Conventional concrete bridge • Cable stayed bridge • Suspension bridge • The conventional concrete was discounted at an early stage, primarily on cost grounds (with the materials required, especially for numerous pylons and piers in the water to support the deck) • The TA team presented the cable stayed and suspension bridge options to KURA and Mombasa County Government and invited them to advise on the structure type to be used for the conceptual design taking account of: • Design aesthetics, cost and uniqueness (the technical capability and deliverability of the two structure types being similar) 22 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Bridge Conceptual Design Selection of Bridge Structure Type Cable Stayed Bridge Suspension Bridge • Carriageway beam is supported from • Steel carriageway beam supported via the pylon directly by straight cables hangers from two main cables in parallel or harp like arrangements • Anchor blocks four (4) no.; higher total • Anchor blocks two (2) no.; lower total quantities quantities • second longest in Africa and the 74th • Longest in Africa and Europe and the worldwide 5th worldwide. Considering the landmark appearance, KURA and MCG advised that the Suspension bridge option be elaborated further. A conceptual / outline design, construction process and cost estimate has been developed for a Suspension bridge for the 2nd Nyali Bridge. 23 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Bridge Conceptual Design Delivering the desired capacity 24 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Bridge Conceptual Design Daytime (Artist’s Impression) 25 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Bridge Conceptual Design Night time (Artist’s Impression) 26 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Feasibility Study ESIA issues 27 © 2016 Deloitte & Touche Environmental and Social Impact Issues Project Impacts and Mitigation Measures Project Phase Positive Impacts Negative Impacts & their mitigation measures Social Environmental Mitigation Measures Pre- . Employment creation . Land acquisition, . Vegetation clearance . RoW limited to construction, construction change in land use . Habitat fragmentation O&M areas . Loss of structures . Tree planting & re-landscaping . Proper Compensation Construction . Increases Direct