Battery Critical Materials Supply Chain Opportunities June 29, 2020 Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg energy.gov Assistant Secretary for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Daniel R. Simmons energy.gov A/S Frank Fannon U.S. Department of State Bureau of Energy Resources Collaborative presentation Advanced Manufacturing Office Geothermal Technology Office Vehicle Technologies Office Lithium-Ion Battery Critical Materials Challenges related to Electric Vehicles David Howell, VTO June 29, 2020 Helena Khazdozian, AMO Sean Porse, GTO Samm Gillard, VTO Anticipated Rise in Electric Vehicle Purchases • Global projection of annual passenger EV sales is 56M EVs in 20401 – 17% (~9.6M EVs) of those sales will be in the US market – 9.6M EV’s equates to approximately a $100 billion battery market • 2018 markets2 of similar size: – Smart phones ($79 billion) – Gas stations ($110 billion) – Passenger Car/auto manufacturing ($112 billion) 1Source: Bloomberg NEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 2Source: IBIS World, Market Size Statistics - United States 2018 NAICS Reports U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 2 EVs will dominate the demand for Li-ion batteries E-buses Consumer Electronics Of the 374 GWh of global Stationary Storage Li-ion cell manufacturing, Commercial EVs the US capacity was 9% (~34 GWh) in Sept 2019 Passenger EVs Source: Bloomberg NEF Lithium Battery development and production is a strategic imperative for the US, both as part of the clean energy transition and as a key component for the competitiveness of the US automotive industry U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 3 Global Lithium Ion Cell Production • Li-ion cell manufacturing is strongest in China, the U.S., Asia, and Europe. • China has almost 80% of the current global LIB cell manufacturing capacity (~360 GWh) as well as almost 60% of the 1000 GWh planned and under construction. • The U.S. is the second-largest Li-ion Battery Manufacturing Planned (blue) or Under Construction (red) manufacturer at 9% of current global capacity, with the Tesla- Panasonic plants in Nevada comprising the majority. The Updated 6/21/20 U.S. also has 12% of the facilities planned/under construction. • New legislation is driving significant growth in Sources: NREL Analysis 2020, BNEF, others manufacturing in Europe. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 4 Global Battery Supply - Cobalt The majority of cobalt is produced in the DRC and is processed in China, for both battery and steel manufacturing. Once cobalt goes to China, very little of it is made available for battery manufacturing elsewhere. Cobalt flowing through the U.S. supply chain primarily comes from steel recycling operations, with a small amount of domestic mining in Michigan and from mine tailings in Missouri. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 5 Global Battery Supply – Lithium Lithium trade is similar to cobalt in that China imports the majority of lithium and uses it in its domestic industry. One significant difference, however, is that the supply of lithium is more diverse and most refining companies obtain their supply from numerous sources. There is significant trade among nations except China in the LIB and EV sectors. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 6 Global Battery Supply – Nickel (Class 1) The majority of Class 1 nickel is used in metallurgical applications. China’s lithium-ion batteries have lower nickel content than those produced by EU and the U.S. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 7 Lithium Ion Battery Cathode Material Technology Lithium Metal with Sulfur Critical Materials NMC622 NMC955 Content (kg) Cathode Lithium 13 13.7 24.3 per 100kWh Battery Cobalt 19 ~5 0 Pack Nickel 60 ~82 0 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 8 Worldwide Energy Storage Material Demand (80M New Sales and 50% Market Penetration by 2045) EV Market Penetration 2045 Scenario Assumptions Cobalt • 2030: 15% over 3% of the 45,179 world reserve • 2045: 50% 2045 150,312 used for new vehicles. Lithium Ion Battery 36,723 Assumptions 2030 Year 45,179 Recycled Material Supply • 60 kWh average • 100% NMC955 0 Cobalt Needed 2019 (5% cobalt content) 36,723 Recycling important for Recycling Assumptions 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 domestic • 15 Year Vehicle Life US Tons supply • 100% EV Batteries Recycled All sources from USGS 2019 Materials Commodity Studies U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 9 Worldwide Energy Storage Material Demand (80M New Sales and 50% Market Penetration by 2045) EV Market Penetration Assumptions Lithium 2045 Scenario • 2030: 15% 2.5% of the world reserve used for • 2045: 50% 99,557 2045 new vehicles. 391,322 Lithium Ion Battery Assumptions 27,308 2030 Recycled Material Supply • 60 kWh average Year 95,557 • 100% NMC955 Lithium Needed (5% cobalt content) Recycling 2019 27,308 important for Recycling Assumptions 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 domestic • 15 Year Vehicle Life US Tons supply • 100% EV Batteries Recycled All sources from USGS 2019 Materials Commodity Studies U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 10 Worldwide Energy Storage Material Demand (80M New Sales and 50% Market Penetration by 2045) EV Market Penetration 2045 Scenario Assumptions Nickel • 2030: 15% 1.2% of the • 2045: 50% 375,933 world reserve 2045 1,477,549 used for new Lithium Ion Battery vehicles. Assumptions 160,000 2030 Recycled Material Supply Year 375,932 • 60 kWh average • 100% NMC955 Nickel Needed (5% cobalt content) 2019 Recycling 160,000 important for Recycling Assumptions 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 domestic • 15 Year Vehicle Life US Tons supply • 100% EV Batteries Recycled All sources from USGS 2019 Materials Commodity Studies U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 11 DOE Battery R&D Basic Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) Advanced Sciences Battery R&D for Electric Vehicles Manufacturing (JCESR, EFRC) lithium ion, lithium metal, solid state Office (AMO) Support Materials Office of Electricity (OE) innovative discovery and Energy Storage for Grid manufacturin fundamental lithium, sodium, flow, other storage g technology research to R&D focused understand, on predict, and Advanced Projects Research significantly control the Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) reducing interactions of “Off-roadmap” Transformational R&D battery and matter and energy energy at the storage cost, electronic, Geothermal Technologies Office energy, atomic, and (GTO) emissions, molecular levels. Mineral resources and improve performance U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 12 Electric Vehicle Battery R&D EERE EERE GTO VTO EERE AMO U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 13 Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) • Critical Materials Institute (CMI), a DOE Energy Innovation Hub – Battery R&D • Forward-osmosis technology to concentrate lithium chloride and sulfate CMI chemistries for efficient conversion • Physical, chemical, and biochemical recycling approaches R&D Projects Analysis • Supported by cross-cutting R&D efforts like thermodynamic Battery characterization Critical Materials FY20 LEEP FOA Battery Prize • Energy Storage Cross-Cut with VTO • FY20 Critical Materials FOA • FY19 FOA: 10 projects with ~$45M total funding to advance • Field validation and demonstration battery manufacturing • Next-generation technologies • Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Prize (led by VTO) • Call for lab-industry partnerships to solve engineering challenges for advanced battery materials and devices Salton Sea Timeline of Mineral Recovery Efforts 1932-54 1960s 1965-67 1968 1977 1980s 1990s Image: Berkshire Hathaway, 2003 2020 2014-16 2014-15 2001-04 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 15 Current DOE Efforts – Critical Materials Supply Chain Nexus EERE seeks to demonstrate added value in regions where geothermal brines can deliver critical elements such as lithium. Geothermal Advanced Vehicle Technologies Manufacturing Technologies SUPPLY PROCESS MARKET Uniting GTO, AMO, and VTO creates clear-path integration from supply to manufacturing to end-market, with improved efficiencies and economics. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 16 R&D to Mitigate Potential Critical Material Impacts Low/No Cobalt Cathode R&D Develop Lithium Low-/No Battery • Decrease recycling cost Cobalt Recycling Cathodes R&D • Recover critical and high *Based on: 100 KWh battery pack and value materials NMC622 cathode • Reintroduce recovered Lithium-Ion materials into the material Battery supply stream Recycling Prize A $5.5 million phased competition over three years Innovative Ideas for Collection, Storing, and Transporting Discarded Li-Ion Batteries U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY 17 Request for Information (RFI) Battery Critical Materials Supply Chain R&D • EERE is soliciting feedback from stakeholders on issues related to challenges and opportunities in the upstream and midstream critical materials battery supply chains • Specifically interested in raw minerals production and refining and processing of cathode materials including cobalt, lithium, and nickel* – Future Battery Chemistries and Material Supply – Economics