December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Summary Equity Markets The main and junior markets ended November with gains of 4.0% and 6.0% respectively in local currency terms, lifted by falling bank deposit rates and gains in global commodity markets. In US dollar terms, the TSE rose 1.9% while the Farabourse was up 3.8%. Debt Markets On the bond market, T-Bill yields to maturity have declined in recent months and have stabilized since October between 15% and 16%. The CBI managed to fix one-year deposit rates at 15% by setting harsh penalties for banks violating the cap. Economic Review This issue reviews the latest updates from International Monetary Fund on Iran’s macro-economy. In addition, we have included sections covering the latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations and senior macroeconomic strategists in a fact-sheet report, as well as an economic calender released by local and international statistics centres. 1 Iran Investment Monthly Table of Contents 3 Market Overview 3 Market Insight 5 Performance & Updates 8 Sector Insight 11 Company Overview 12 Market Snapshot 13 TSE & Junior Market Performance 14 Top Ranked Companies 15 TSE Statistics 15 FX Movements 16 Iran’s Fixed Income Market 18 Economic Review 18 Latest Updates 19 Macroeconomic Data 20 Iran Fixed Income Market Factsheet 22 Turquoise Partners 22 About Turquoise Partners 28 News & Views 2 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Market Insight December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Market Update The Tehran Stock Exchange continued its positive performance for a fifth consecutive month as the overall index rose by 4.0% in local currency terms, bringing the YTD performance of the TSE to 14.4%. The Euro strengthened 4.2% versus the Rial last month, extending its YTD rally to 15.5%, which is broadly in line with the global appreciation of the Euro since the beginning of the year. Consistent with the government policy of maintaining the current level of competitiveness and following the election of President Rouhani in June 2013, the free market rate had experienced a well-managed depreciation, gradually moving from 41,620 Rials against the Euro in the summer of 2013 to about 49,875 Rials now. Shervin Shahriari Monthly EUR/IRR - 2013 up to Date Chief Investment Officer Annual CAGR: 5% Nov 2013 vs. Nov 2017 IRR per EUR Source: Bonbast The Iranian Rial is priced against a basket of currencies that does not include the US dollar. The Rial is more affected by the fluctuations of the Euro, which in turn gained value against the US dollar in 2017. An example of this, on a YTD basis, the free market value of the Iranian Rial lost 4% against the US$, which is significantly less than the 15% depreciation it has experienced versus its European peer. In the bond market, after a sharp decline in yields of the listed T-Bills in the recent months, there have been signs of stability in the interest rates in November. In my view, 15 to 16% would be the resistance level for interest rates given the fact that the CBI has fixed the annual deposit rates at 15%, which is widely offered by Iranian commercial banks to depositors all across the country. 3 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Market Insight December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 YTD Yield of T-Bills 29-Nov-2017 15.79 Source: Iran Farabourse An area where we see significant potential is on the earnings front. There has been a consistent trend of positive profit adjustments during the year and with interest rates remaining steady, we see the equity market undergoing a rerating in the near future. Our internal calculation of earnings shows that a 10-12% increase of earnings is expected for 2018 in US$ terms. That is based on our internal investment analysis stating an increase of GDP 4-5% (IMF) with inflation steady at 10% along with productivity growth at 2% and depreciation of the currency in the range of 5-8%. Consistent with this outlook, I foresee a double-digit return for the equity market in 2018 should regional tensions maintaining an element of calm. 4 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Performance & Update December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Performance & Updates Summary - November 2017 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 117 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Free Float 21% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Number of Listed Companies1 576 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market TSE Index Performance (US$)2,4 1.9% (MTD) 9.0% (YTD) TSE Total Turnover (million US$)2 2,191 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Dividend Yield (%) 3 12% TSE P/E 6.9 1 155 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated based on market IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on market data ending 1395 Iranian calendar year. 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) The main and junior markets ended November with gains of 4.0% and 6.0% respectively in local currency terms, lifted by falling bank deposit rates and gains in global commodity markets. In US dollar terms gains, the TSE rose 1.9% while the Farabourse was up 3.8%. The TSE’s total trading volume remained stable for the month at 843 US$ million, while trading on the Iran Farabourse (IFB) increased 18% to 1.3 billion US$ in November from 1.1 billion US$ in October. The total number of shares traded rose 6% on the TSE and declined 11% on the IFB, which has more fixed income instruments, including Treasury bills. Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 - November 2017 Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$) Million US$ Source: Tehran Stock Exchange Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate 1 Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities. 5 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Performance & Update December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Tehran Stock Exchange Trade by Value - YTD November Monthly Change Total: 843 m$ Total: 0% Average: 44 m$ Average: 16% No. Trading Day: 19 October Total: 843 m$ Average: 38 m$ No. Trading Day: 22 Million US$ Tehran Stock Exchange Trade by Volume - YTD Monthly Change Total: 6% Average: 21% November Total: 1.6 billion shares Average: 858 million shares No. Trading Day: 19 October Total: 1.5 billion shares Average: 706 million shares No. Trading Day: 22 Million Shares Source: Tehran Stock Exchange All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate 6 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Performance & Update December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Junior Market Trade by Value - YTD November Monthly Change Total: 1.3 billion$ Total: 18% Average: 71 million$ Average: 33% No. Trading Day: 19 October Total: 1.1 billion$ Average: 53 million$ No. Trading Day: 22 Million US$ Junior Market Trade by Volume - YTD Monthly Change Total: -11% Average: 3% November Total: 5.5 billion shares Average: 294 million shares No. Trading Day: 19 October Total: 6.2 billion shares Average: 286 million shares No. Trading Day: 22 Million Shares Source: Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate 7 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Sector Insight December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Sector Insight - November 2017 18.7 Wooden Products 13.2 Metallic Ore 9.3 Base Metals 7.9 Coal Mining 7.6 Oil Products % Sector -3.0 Other Financial Services 1 -3.3 Insurance Performance -5.6 Transportation & Logistics -7.1 Oil Drilling & Services -18.1 Metallic Products 13.9 x Ceramic 13.9 x Sugar 13.8 x Electric Machinery & Apparatus 13.0 x Motor Vehicles and Auto Pars 10.5 x Monetary Intermediation - Banks 6.2 x Pharmaceuticals 6.2 x Chemical & By Products P/E 6.2 x Other non metallic Mineral Products 6.1 x Basic Metals 5.4 x Financial leasing 644% Metal Ores Mining 511% Electric Machinery & Apparatus 148% Refined Petroleum Products 138% Insurance & Pension funding Except Compulsory Social Security 132% Machinery & Equipment -32% Investment Companies %Trading Motor Vehicles and Auto Pars -36% Value2 -38% Cement, Lime & Plaster -56% Computer & related activities -63% Pharmaceuticals Source: Tehran Stock Exchange, Note: Sectors with more than 4 companies included (exp. Telecommunication) 1Growth of sector’s index month on month in IRR term. 2Growth of trading volume month on month in US$ term. 8 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Sector Insight December 2017 - Volume 12, No 133 Sector Insight: Diversified Industrial Holdings Overview This sector includes large investment holding companies, such as Civil Pension Fund Investment and Ghadir Investment. The key feature of these companies is their specialization and utilization of a large pool of capital to invest in specific sectors, such as petrochemicals, steel and cement. These companies establish listed or unlisted manufacturing units in specific sectors and after years of development they take the benefit of their investment as major shareholders. For example, Pension Fund is the largest shareholder in Jam Petrochemical Co., which is one of Iran’s largest petrochemical producers and is located in Iran’s Assaluyeh region by the Persian Gulf. In August 2013, the company went public by offering its shares on the Iran Fara Bourse. It produces a variety of petrochemicals, namely olefin, HDPE, LLDPE and butadiene. Ghadir Investment’s largest holding is Parsian Oil and Gas Development, one of Iran’s biggest petrochemical and refinery holding companies which has the country’s largest urea production facility and owns Pardis Petrochemical and Zagros Petrochemical.