Comparative Connections A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations China-Taiwan Relations: Taiwan Sets a New Direction David G. Brown, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies Kevin Scott Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen was elected president on Jan. 16 by a decisive margin, and for the first time the DPP won a majority in the Legislative Yuan (LY) election. This outcome has set Taiwan on a new course. Since then, Tsai has adhered to her pledge to maintain the status quo and peace in the Taiwan Strait and has taken steps to continue reaching out to Beijing. Beijing reacted calmly to the election and has repeatedly said the election will not change the basic framework of its peaceful development policy toward Taiwan. However, Beijing is waging a focused campaign to press Tsai to accept the 1992 Consensus in her inaugural address on May 20. Even if she does not fully meet Beijing’s demands, as is expected, it will be in the interest of both sides to avoid confrontation after May 20 in what is likely to be a strained relationship. DPP wins big Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential election with 56.1 percent of the vote, and the DPP claimed 68 of 113 seats in the LY. The Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate, Eric Chu Li-lun, who replaced unpopular candidate Hung Hsiu-chu in October, won 31 percent of the vote, and People First Party (PFP) candidate James Soong Chu-yu won 12.8 percent. The KMT managed only 35 seats in the legislature – a decrease of 29 from the 2012 election – while the PFP won three seats; the newly established New Power Party (NPP) won five seats. The new LY session began on Feb. 19, and the presidential inauguration takes place on May 20. In a brief speech after her victory, President-elect Tsai reaffirmed her campaign pledges to maintain the status quo and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. She repeated references to the Republic of China (ROC) constitutional order and cross-strait negotiations, interactions, and exchanges, and described the will of the Taiwanese people as the foundation for future cross- strait relations. She emphasized that “both sides of the strait have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction that are based on dignity and reciprocity” and warned that “any forms of suppression will harm the stability of cross-strait relations.” Tsai’s cross-strait policy Tsai’s focus since the election has been on policies to reinvigorate the Taiwan economy and on social issues, government organization, transitional justice, and political reforms. She has said This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations, Vol. 18, No. 1, May 2016. Preferred citation: David G. Brown and Kevin Scott, “China-Taiwan Relations: Taiwan Sets a New Direction,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 18, No. 1, May 2016, pp.67-78. China-Taiwan Relations 67 May 2016 that she seeks to expand trade relations with South and Southeast Asia, and consistently expressed hopes for goodwill, peace, stability, and communication across the Taiwan Strait. In her victory speech Tsai did not repeat a reference she made in a late December debate to a “mutual understanding” that the two sides had reached in Hong Kong in 1992 (an important comment that could be interpreted as referring to the 1992 Consensus). However, in an interview published in the Liberty Times on Jan. 21, Tsai said she “understands and respects” the “historical fact” that discussions took place in 1992 and that the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) had “achieved several common acknowledgements and understandings (達成了若干的共同認知與諒解).” She elaborated that these understandings together with the ROC constitutional order, the results of 20 years of negotiations and exchanges, and the democratic principles and will of the Taiwan people comprise the “established political basis” for peace, stability, and development in cross- strait relations. These comments represent further attempts by Tsai to reach out and reassure Beijing that she seeks a positive relationship. Nevertheless, commentators in Beijing have said they do not meet Beijing’s demands that she explicitly accept the 1992 Consensus and its core connotation of “one China.” President-elect Tsai’s appointments to senior positions in her administration also indicate her desire for stability. Lin Chuan, an economist who was Chen Shui-bian’s minister of finance for three years, was named premier on March 16. Though not a DPP member himself, in January 2014 Lin led a delegation of DPP members who are close to Tsai to the mainland for meetings on trade and economic issues. On April 15, several more appointments were announced, including that of career diplomat Katharine Chang Siao-Yue as minister of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC). Chang is currently a senior official in Taiwan’s relations with the United States, and held several posts during the Ma administration. David Lee Ta-wei, another career diplomat who was representative to the US during the Chen administration and representative to Canada during the Ma administration, was named foreign minister. Joseph Wu Jau-shieh, who as chairman of the MAC under Chen Shui-bian oversaw the initial agreement for cross-strait charter flights and later served as representative to the US, was named secretary general of the National Security Council. All these appointees are moderates who will likely work effectively to help Tsai implement her cross-strait objectives. As of late April, Tsai has not announced the appointee for chair of the SEF. Joseph Wu visited Washington immediately after the election. In a public speech on Jan. 19, he made clear that the Tsai administration’s priority will be economic development and noted that the DPP’s victory should not be construed as a defeat for China. He said that Tsai advocates a return to the original spirit of setting aside differences to seek common grounds that formed the basis of the 1992 cross-Strait meetings. Wu said Taipei will do its utmost to find a “mutually acceptable mode of interaction between Taiwan and the Mainland.” He indicated the DPP does not oppose many of the initiatives begun under the Ma government, such as the Services Trade Agreement (STA), Merchandise Trade Agreement (MTA), and the establishment of representative offices, but that the Tsai administration will seek to be more transparent and that legislation establishing an oversight mechanism is a required first step. China-Taiwan Relations 68 May 2016 On Feb. 18, DPP legislative caucus leader Ker Chien-ming announced that the caucus would re- write the draft of the oversight bill that it had submitted in the previous legislature, when it was in the minority. The new draft, released on April 1 and titled the “Statute Governing Oversight of the Concluding of Cross-Strait Agreements,” changes the terms “Taiwan” and “China” to “Taiwan Area” and “Mainland Area,” in accordance with the ROC constitutional framework for cross-strait relations, and would not use the term “treaties” to describe cross-strait agreements. Substantively, it requires the Executive Yuan to present plans to the LY before negotiations begin, report to the LY during negotiations and obtain LY permission to continue, and present completed agreements to the LY for clause-by-clause review. The legislature would have the right to call public hearings, and negotiations and agreements would be reviewed for national security implications. The bill would not apply retroactively to agreements reached by previous administrations though the LY would vote on the STA, and MTA negotiations and ratification would take place, under this bill. A party statement said that the bill was drafted to “avoid controversy” and Ker Chien-ming indicated that the draft conveys President-elect Tsai’s preferences. Still, there is some resistance in the DPP and especially in the NPP. Reflecting its roots in the 2014 Sunflower movement, the NPP would change the references to Taiwan and the mainland, would require greater participation by NGOs in the review process, and would allow for amendments and additional terms after agreements are signed. That Tsai has been able to win support for this revised approach in the face of considerable resistance from pro-independence voices is an encouraging sign of her ability to maintain support for her stated cross-strait policies. There will be other challenges to Tsai’s cross-strait policy from within the pan-green camp. On Feb. 20, for example, DPP Legislator Gao Jyh-peng suggested he would introduce legislation that would remove the requirement to display Sun Yat-sen’s portrait in public buildings; this caused the TAO to warn that de-sinicization would upset the status quo. Tsai did not comment directly, but said that the Executive Yuan will create a committee to promote transitional justice, and that true reconciliation and solidarity in society are the goals of the process. In March, DPP legislators proposed laws limiting rights of former ROC presidents and vice presidents to travel to China, and cited budget concerns in forcing the cancellation of a planned visit to China by outgoing SEF Chairman Lin Join-sane. In April, an LY committee voted to revoke a ban on ROC citizens placing “Republic of Taiwan” stickers on the cover of their passports. Beijing’s policy response Although Tsai and the DPP won a more decisive victory than expected, Beijing reacted calmly to the election outcome. The TAO merely noted the election and said it would not change Beijing’s policy. Privately, officials expressed remarkable confidence that their basic policy of pursuing the peaceful development of relations based on the 1992 Consensus was the correct policy.