SOPAC Catastrophe Insurance Pilot Study, Port Vila, Vanuatu: Developing Risk-Management Options for Disasters in the Pacific Region by G.G. Shorten, S. Goosby, K. Granger, K. Lindsay, P. Naidu, S. Oliver, K. Stewart, V. Titov, G. Walker Volume 2 of 2 Volume 1: Report Volume 2: Appendices SOPAC JOINT CONTRIBUTION REPORT 147 December, 2003 Prepared for World Bank Office, Sydney, and AusAID, Canberra, Australia Authors and Affiliations: Dr Graham G. Shorten, Environmental & Community Risk International (ECRi) Pty Ltd, Brisbane, AUSTRALIA Mr Stan Goosby, Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), Hawaii, USA Mr Ken Granger, Risk Scientist, Buderim, AUSTRALIA Mr Kevin Lindsay, Risk Management International Consulting (Riskman) Ltd, Port Vila, VANUATU Ms Purnima Naidu, SOPAC, Suva, FIJI ISLANDS Mr Stephen Oliver, Global Environmental Modelling Systems (GEMS) Pty Ltd, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA Mr Kerry Stewart, DunlopStewart Ltd, Auckland, NEW ZEALAND Dr Vasily Titov, Consultant, Seattle, USA Dr George Walker, Aon Re Australia Ltd, Sydney, AUSTRALIA i Contents Appendix 1 ...................................................................................................................1 Quantitative Assessment of Risk to Infrastructure due to Large Natural Catastrophes in the Port Vila-Mele Area, Vanuatu.............................................................................................................1 Kerry Stewart....................................................................................................................................................... 1 DunlopStewart Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand ........................................................................................................ 1 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................3 2 Introduction .........................................................................................................................5 3 Defined Risks ......................................................................................................................7 4 Port Vila - Mele - General....................................................................................................8 5 Disaster Management - Overview.......................................................................................8 6 Description of Infrastructure ................................................................................................9 7 Damage in Historical Events .............................................................................................15 8 Quantification of Potential Losses .....................................................................................19 9 Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................41 10 Additional References...................................................................................................41 Appendix 2 .................................................................................................................43 Port Vila Peri-Urban Settlements Risk Analysis: Methodology....................................................43 Ken Granger ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 RiskScience, Buderim, Australia......................................................................................................................... 43 1 Background.......................................................................................................................45 2 Peri-Urban Settlement ‘Neighbourhoods’..........................................................................45 3 Variables Selected ............................................................................................................48 4 Index Construction ............................................................................................................54 5 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................60 6 References........................................................................................................................61 Appendix 3a ...............................................................................................................63 Catastrophe Insurance Pilot Project, Port Vila, Vanuatu: Vanuatu Wind Storm .........................63 Stephen Oliver................................................................................................................................................... 63 Global Environmental Modelling Systems Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia ...........................................................63 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................65 2 Study Methodology ...........................................................................................................66 3 Description of Models........................................................................................................67 4 Results ..............................................................................................................................91 5 References...................................................................................................................... 101 6 Appendix A – Wind Multiplier Tables............................................................................... 102 Appendix 3b .............................................................................................................107 Disaster Risk Management in Marginal Communities of Port Vila, Vanuatu: Extreme Wave Risk.................................................................................................................................................. 107 Stephen Oliver................................................................................................................................................. 107 Global Environmental Modelling Systems Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia ......................................................... 107 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 109 2 Study Methodology ......................................................................................................... 109 3 Tropical Cyclone Beni ..................................................................................................... 110 4 Description of Models......................................................................................................115 5 Modelling Results............................................................................................................ 125 6 Summary & Conclusions.................................................................................................133 7 References...................................................................................................................... 134 ii Appendix 4a .............................................................................................................135 Tsunami Inundation Modelling for Pilot Project Harbour ........................................................... 135 Vasily Titov ...................................................................................................................................................... 135 Consultant, Seattle, USA .................................................................................................................................. 135 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 136 2 Tsunami Model................................................................................................................ 136 3 “Worst Case” Scenario.................................................................................................... 137 4 Numerical model of January 2, 2002 tsunami at Port Vila............................................... 140 5 Conclusions..................................................................................................................... 145 6 References...................................................................................................................... 146 Appendix 4b .............................................................................................................147 Tsunami Inundation Model of Mele Bay ....................................................................................... 147 Vasily Titov ...................................................................................................................................................... 147 Consultant, Seattle, USA .................................................................................................................................. 147 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 148 2 Tsunami Model and Data ................................................................................................ 148 3 Simulation Results .......................................................................................................... 150 4 Conclusions....................................................................................................................