I I I I I Nomad independence: In a nomad society, the I technology needs are basically limited to tools for I I hunting, herding, and gathering and to erecting a I temporary shelter. I I Agrarian economy: Tool requirements extend to Time I cover farming and storage and to erecting a per- Concept Demise I I manent shelter. This era covers most of human I civilization. I Fig. 1. Technology life cycle. I Industrial revolution: Within a generation during I the last century, technology expanded to very large, I I complex systems requiring multiple workers. Infor- Extending the life Cycle I mation is controlled by the system owner. Shelter I Because of the transition cycles, few companies I moves past needs to wants, but the location is con- can thrive for long periods of time. Two ap- I trolled by the work site. Adequate resources are avail- I proaches appear to be the dominant models for able for limited saving and planning for the future. I survival. The first cleans up the old act. The sec- I Information explosion: Technology explodes to I ond takes a new tack. ubiquitous availability for anyone wanting to learn I Resurrection: This is not part ofthe life cycle, but I and willing to take risks. Shelter location can be at I rather is an admirable effort to recapture some of the choice of the owner. Resources are available to I the strength of the dream, stretch the life of the I those who seize the available information#. maturity segment, and enhance the life of the or- I In adeveloped society, all these exist simultane- I ganization. I ously. Later advancements are simply added op- The new corporation is a development to sal- I tions. With each change, it is apparent that the I vage a historical management hierarchy from satia- I choices are greatly augmented. Nevertheless, not tion and demise. The basic premise is to reduce I everyone will access the opportunities of the new I costs and number of people, employ technology I paradigm because of ties to and dependence on the where feasible, and focus on a core business. Com- I previous period. I panies that have effectively changed their organiza- I tion have been rewarded substantially by the stock I I market increasing the value of shares {4]. I Application technology, such as computers, is I life Cycle I Within each technological era, a defined business used to enhance ancillary performance. New ad- I vancements in the core business technology may I life cycle follows technology development. Technol- I ogy is dominant during the birth and period of not occur as they should. Nevertheless, costs will I growth. Munagement brings in a period of stability be controlled to the point of extending maturity. I I and expansion by acquisition. Legal protection and The organizational structure becomes very flat. I risk avoidance portend the end. The curve can be One designated hitter will have numerous people I I plotted with money, recognition, or some other directly under his authority. The organization I measure of wealth on the vertical axis, and time on again takes on some of the image of entrepreneurs. I I the horizontal [3]. Each worker is responsible for his own performance I The corresponding technology cycle is pro- without supervision. A slip-up or politicalfauxpm, I I posed. (1) Any new technology begins with a and he is out. I dream, a concept ot an idea. (2) As the dream be- Support services consist of a personal computer I and voice mail. With the rapid developments, the I comes focused, aplan matures and a process forms. I (3) During a growth phase, the system has reached type of support will change before this article is I published. Technology has been elevated to re- I critical mass; it can progress merely on its own I merits. (4)As a technology reaches maturity, the duce costs. Many specialized functions, such as I design, training, and construction, are outsourced I wealth curve flattens out over the bandwidth of the I life cycle. The system is stable enough to be self- to specialists. I Network: Companies that flourish become man- I sustaining until a replacement technology arrives. I (5)The new technology begins to push the wealth agers of technology. The major chore becomes co- I curve downward at the roll-of. (6) No new applica- ordination among the three corners of the product I I tions exist for the original technology during the triangle-suppliers, marketers, and transporters. I satiation. (7) Eventually the plug is pulled for the The technology is developed and provided by out- I I demise. Fig. 1 graphically illustrates the life cycle. side sources. The managers develop a distribution I At the turn of this century, the productive system to the client for the product. It may take on I I period of technology could exceed that of one a private label or a widely recognized branded I generation. With the approach of the next cen- moniker. The remaining pin of the triangle is re- I I tury, technology life expectancy is often less sponsive transportation for movement of products I than five years. and information. I I I IEEE Industry Applications Mngazine II March/A,uril I 998 @ I I I I I I From this basis, every closed, physical system I a I can be identified as “zero-sum’ game In other I words, if there is an increase or winner in one area, I then there must be a corresponding decrease or I I loser in another area This is a valid observation I when the system is completely and adequately de- I I fined Notice that one of the necessary criteria is a I closed system A closed system is completely self- I I contained without any outside influence In other I words, there is no substantive growth I I This is highly desirable in a control system I Damping is used to force the performance to a sta- I Fig. 2. Network for technologists. I ble condition Stable by definition means there is I no building or growth I I I----A more significant observation is that many I Product Marketer Client systems can be regarded as open These have a con- I L I tinually changing source of energy that is derived I Fig. 3. The client’s perspective. from outside the narrowly defined arena If a closed I system is a “zero-sum” game, then an open system I Under this structure, the individual risks are I can be described as a “find-more” game limited. Nevertheless, managers can draw on the I For example a nomadic society attributes value I financial strength of the suppliers. Different levels to hunting and herding skills and equipment I of risk are allocated to the independent entities. I Within the society, he who has the most arrows I The cost of manufacture and product develop- and can deliver them is the winner Others lose out I ment is concentrated at the most effective source. I on the available game This is a closed system I Cost of customer education and development is lo- Enter the agrarian society Game has less sig- I cated nearest the client. Cost ofvehicles and move- I nificance while land ownership, domesticated live- I ment is relegated to innovators. Cost of stock, and crops take on a new meaning The I coordination and responsibility for support is con- I technology advances allow the farmer to achieve a centrated at the manager. Improved cost, service, I more stable, greater wealth It is not at the expense I and access of goods are provided to the client. I of the hunter The skilled hunter can flourish and Within an information society, this is the opti- I maintain his limited wealth without interference I mum system [5]. The technologists in each of the I from the farmer as long as they avoid the same land corners of the triangle, the manager, and the client I The society, then, is not a closed, but an arche- I are independent. However, the network shown in I type ofan open system Outside energy comes from Fig. 2 makes a winning system for all. I technology development The technology provides I Although the support system appears as a trian- value to items previously without worth I gle, the client sees only a straight line. From his I Within a defined set of conditions, physical sys- I perspective, all the components are collapsed into a tems are closed However, technology, which is an I telescope under the marketer (Fig. 3). I outside influence, by definition creates an open I Many unfortunately feel they have no opportu- system for a society Unlike a “zero-sum” condi- I nity because there is nothing new to be developed. I tion, many can experience growth and wealth I This concept is steeped in the traditional without it being at the expense of others This is I technology-management-legal life cycle. In reality, I the model to be expected if the world is adequate 90% ofpurchases now are for things that did not ex- I for human survival and development I ist 20 years ago. New ways of doing old things and I development of new things are growing explosively. I Theory Economics I The major wealth in the past 20 years has come of I Economic theory during the span of the United from managing, developing, and applying tech- I States has been built on the work ofAdam Smith in I nology to distribution.