2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2020 NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: OLB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *Our LB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. I expected to see a much better player here, when I went through the tape. I’m a little worried here. Now, if you’re keeping up with the mainstream draft coverage and analysis on Isaiah Simmons – I just caught your attention as you saw me veering off the tracks on Simmons. I’m as surprised as you. We/the football world might have some issues here with Simmons. The set up for a ‘scouting head fake’ is obvious. All of the emotional factors that drive scouting – Simmons has those in spades. What do I mean? I’m talking about all those things that may not really matter all that much, but that pump up his value, the things that look really cool and attractive in highlights when you them replayed over and over. So what are these things that are inflating Simmons’ value? -- Played for Clemson. That really does matter to scouts/analysts for some reason and it’s been true for 10+ years – the big college teams get better grades for their prospects. The big, comfortable school who they saw on TV a few times -- it brings a comfort to scouts and analysts, right off the bat. -- His freakish athleticism. He’s a big/tall rangy at 6’3”+/238 and ran a 4.39 40-time with a 39” vertical and an 11’0” broad jump – all high end numbers by historical comparison. All things analytics people and fans that get what the Combine numbers are all about can get behind. -- He’s a ‘hybrid’! He plays OLB…but he used to play safety and he can be used rushing off the edge! So many ways he can beat you. So many ways a team can use him! He might project in several positions…but is that just because he’s not great at any one of them? Maybe? Did anyone stop and ask/study whether he was all that good at football? He might he be an ‘A’ athlete and a ‘D’ football player…and we can’t take our eyes off the ‘A’ athlete to notice/consider the ‘D’ football player? It’s easier to see the ‘A’ when you watch 2-3-4 highlight reel plays and then just follow the hive-mind concurrence. You’d have to actually watch game after game after game just isolating on him to notice a potential problem. Well, I did just that. Before I did that, and just skimmed some tape for Combine previews…I fell in love with the athlete and joined the herd opinions. But the more tape I watched…the more worried I got. We know the positives – excellent athlete, great/freakish size for an OLB or SAF prospect. He stands out. He can move quickly on the field – the speed is real. College Football Metrics| 1 2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2020 Let just offer up/consider some of the negatives I see… -- Not an aggressive player…he’s passive and not into middle of the field contact. Sure, he’s blazing fast but I see him leaning on speed things (a blitz or a dropping into coverage) but hesitating and always a little late to the party on trying to tackle running backs coming through the middle…I say ‘purposefully late’ to the party. Keeping himself safe from unnecessary contact. You’d like a linebacker that ‘sees ball, flies to ball, and hits ballcarrier’…one who moves with purpose and passion. Simmons kinda floats around the field saving his speed for safer plays – dropping into coverage, chasing down ballcarriers from behind or from the side, or on a blitz. When Simmons tries to make the more difficult tackles, he’s more ‘all arms’ and sheepishly diving at things…or just not where the play seems to be. Simmons smokes a QB when he blitzes…a non- threatening athlete standing still or scrambling. You can find sweet tape of him hitting things…but usually it’s a blitz/full speed and on a QB, which looks great and has value but might hide all his other 99% of plays in a game. When a ballcarrier is going somewhat away from Simmons, with Simmons drifting around at OLB/ILB, you don’t normally see him going all-out to get to the play/area. He tends to half-jog towards things he doesn’t think matter. I like to see linebackers getting after ballcarriers and wanting to go try to jar a ball loose or be there if the other guys miss, etc. Simmons will more lollygag to action away from him…a subtle way to keep safe from contact, a potential subtle ‘tell’ his aggression is in question – and that’s a worry when the athletes he faces are all bigger and stronger, like they will be once he’s in the NFL, rather than the depths of the ACC. -- When Simmons gets blocked…when a blocker has a decent/good angle, Simmons is wet paper trying to fight past/through the blocker. I dare say Simmons ‘does not love contact’. Sure, he’ll hit a defenseless QB or chase down a ballcarrier from behind – but face-to-face, hand-to-hand contact…I see some issues that are a real concern for as high as he’s going to be drafted. Regardless, Simmons has NFL value, even as a non-aggressive player, given his size and athleticism. He can help a defense, but I don’t believe he is an all-world, generational talent prospect…not the one his size-athleticism wants to head-fake us into. He could be with a change in aggression – and maybe that kicks in at the next level. Simmons will be solid in coverage. He can be used as a sneak attack blitzer with his speed. He can do some things that stand out on highlights, but play-in-and-play-out, I don’t know if he’s as valuable to the NFL as we think. He might need to go to free safety and roam around versus any type of in-the-box linebacker…let him play a finesse game. Don’t ask him to play a power game. Use his gifts to your team’s advantage – just don’t think you’ve bought an instant war machine, generational prospect here. Great athlete, has upside, but has some questionable football instincts and heart. College Football Metrics| 2 2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2020 I worry even more when I watch Simmons in interviews – he’s a little bit flippant and slightly arrogant. He thinks he’s better than he is because everyone tells him how great he is…but he may be hiding a secret, bluffing with his words and attitude. I’ve seen it before with some players. Not every football player is super into football and contact at the highest levels…even if they do want the money and fame. We have a solid grade on Simmons because ‘they don’t build ‘em like that’…he’s a bit of rare species/great athletics profile. Perhaps he has his mindset changed by coaching. Perhaps, I’m misreading the situation. Perhaps, he is better suited for a finesse position and he’ll plug in there and be fine. He has some gifts you can’t teach or train. I just see some red flags here where he could wind up being thought of as a bust (for the cost) when we look back 3-4 years from now (like with Leonard Floyd or maybe a Myles Jack). Simmons is so athletically gifted…at a certain point you have to take a chance. For my money, I’d take interior linebacker Kenneth Murray over Simmons all day long – Murray is not as freakish an athlete (although pretty gifted) but you get total aggression, instincts, and leadership/maturity. Building your NFL team and culture – take Kenneth Murray. Making highlight reels, making a few plays a year fans think are really cool, putting together your video game team – take Isaiah Simmons. Isaiah Simmons, Through the Lens of Our OLB Scouting Algorithm: It’s hard to put Simmons’s college output in proper context. He played a favorable position – a drifting rover of a player who used NFL speed on college teams within a great defense to shoot gaps, run blitz, pass blitz, or generally chase things around. He played a position that can lend itself to ‘numbers’ but the quality of the play within a football game/scheme and how his game translates to an NFL team, harder to assess. He had a ton of advantages – great college team, dominating physical gifts, did things that draw attention…blitzing and chasing and drifting into interior pass coverage, all things that lend themselves to numbers. But is he a difference maker, and is he helping as much on all the other non-highlight reel plays? The fact that he was a top solo tackler (#2 in the ACC) but not in the top 10+ of ‘assisted tackles’…in this case it worries me that he isn’t trying to get to plays as hard and thus the lack of assisted tackle activity (a hunch). His solo tackle work is a lot of chasing and arm tackling ankles and blitzing the backfield – and many a college linebacker has put up big/massive college numbers doing that and then never even sniffed the NFL.