What have been the impacts of the introduction of the standard methodology for calculating housing need on planning for housing? A report for Barratt Developments PLC University of Liverpool January 2020 Dr John Sturzaker, Dr Richard Dunning, Dr Thomas Moore, Mr Connor Burns and Professor Alex Lord 1 About the Centre for Sustainable and Resilient Cities The Centre for Sustainable and Resilient Cities (SaRC) brings together academics from across the University of Liverpool to work collaboratively on the global challenge to make our cities more sustainable and resilient, in the face of climate change, resource depletion, population growth, urbanisation and migration. To develop solutions to these issues, two things are essential – firstly, that academics from different disciplines cooperate to think outside the ‘disciplinary silos’ that often constrain us; and secondly, we have to work with partners from other sectors. SaRC includes over 40 research active experts covering topics such as population modelling, housing economics, urban design, environmental assessment, development economics, planning practice, architecture, regional governance and local economic development. SaRC is able to bring together new configurations of researchers responding to particular demands in a timely organic structure to analyse and advise cities and city regions, whether locally, nationally or internationally. We search for ways to implement changes to how those cities and regions function to make them more sustainable and resilient; and use our best science and social science expertise to meet the future challenges to cities from climate change and resource depletion. About the Authors Dr. John Sturzaker has had a varied career as a planner in both practice and research and aims to bring both areas closer together. He is currently Senior Lecturer in Civic Design and Discipline Lead for Planning at the University of Liverpool. His teaching and research interests include community planning, planning & housing and sustainable urban development. He has published work in these areas including Green Belts: Past, Present, Future?, published by Routledge in 2017; and Rescaling Urban Governance: Planning, Localism and Institutional Change, published by Policy Press in 2020. Dr. Richard Dunning trained and worked as a surveyor before completing a PhD in housing economics. He is the Vice Chair of the Housing Studies Association, the learned society for housing research in the UK. Richard has worked on Strategic Housing Market Assessments for local authorities, undertaken housing need modelling at the national scale for Shelter Scotland, completed housing and planning research for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the Residential Landlords Association, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. He has published research on the impact of segmentation in human behaviour on housing markets. Dr. Thomas Moore is a Lecturer in Planning at the University of Liverpool. He is an experienced qualitative researcher with specialisms in housing policy and practice. He has led or undertaken research for a range of funders, including the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Department for Communities and Local Government, Scottish Government, British Academy, and the ESRC. Tom is also a Co-Investigator of the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (CaCHE) and an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Housing Policy. 2 Mr Connor Burns is a 4th year Town and Regional Planning MPlan student at the University of Liverpool. Prof. Alexander Lord is the Lever Chair of Town and Regional Planning in the Department of Geography and Planning at the University of Liverpool. He works on the economic effects of urban and environmental planning and has conducted research for a wide range of funders including an Economic and Social Research Council ‘Urban Transformations’ award on the behavioural economics of real estate markets. Alex has also conducted research for the Royal Town Planning Institute on the potential value of planning as a formal animator of development as well as leading the consortium of universities (Cambridge, LSE, Oxford, Sheffield) which completed Valuing Planning Obligations 2016/17 for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. From 2019 onwards Alex will lead a £1.5 multi-institution, trans-national project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and the Natural Science Foundation China on Land Value Capture. About the University of Liverpool The University of Liverpool has, since 1881, worked for the advancement of learning and ennoblement of life. This remains our mission today and will give focus to all our efforts in the coming years as we strive to achieve our ambitions and aspirations, tackle the grand challenges of the age and make our vision a reality. As a connected, global University with multiple physical and virtual campuses – Liverpool, Suzhou, Singapore and online – our worldwide influence and impact is unrivalled in higher education. The University is an inclusive institution, committed to the provision of opportunity for those with the capacity to benefit as individuals but also as members of a wider community dedicated to a sustainable and just society. 3 Table of contents Contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 6 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 What is the problem? ....................................................................................................... 8 1.2 What is the suggested solution? ....................................................................................... 8 1.3 Our research questions and methods ............................................................................... 9 2.0 How has the standard methodology changed the system and process of planning for housing? ........................................................................................................................................11 2.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................11 2.2 Conceptual and Practical Criticisms of the Standard Methodology ................................ 12 2.3 Underlying Issues with the Standard Methodology ........................................................ 15 2.4 What might be the impacts of the standard methodology on housing delivery? ............ 16 2.5 Empirical evidence ......................................................................................................... 23 3.0 Does housing delivery match evidence on need? ............................................................... 26 3.1 Statistical evidence ........................................................................................................ 26 3.1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 26 3.1.2 Recent delivery in Salford City ................................................................................. 28 3.2 Qualitative evidence ....................................................................................................... 36 3.3 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 37 4.0 What does sustainable high-density development look like? ............................................. 38 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 38 4.2 Case study 1 (City-Regional; International): Portland, Oregon ....................................... 40 4.3 Case Study 2 (Development scale; UK): Greenwich Millennium Village.......................... 42 4.3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 42 4.3.2 Construction ............................................................................................................ 42 4.3.3 Liveability and Management ................................................................................... 43 4.3.4 Energy Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability ............................................... 44 4.3.5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 44 4.4 Case Study 3 (Development Scale; UK): Saffron Square, Croydon ................................. 45 4.4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................. 45 4.4.2 Communal facilities ................................................................................................. 46 4.4.3 Sustainability, Efficiency and Delivering High-Quality Design ................................. 46 4.4.4 Summary ................................................................................................................. 47 4.5 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 47 5.0 Does recent high-density housing development meet established best practice criteria? . 49 4 5.1 Diversity of provision, open space, etc. .........................................................................